Daniel B. French
How Should We Estimate Agile Software Development Projects and What Data Do We Need?
Agile Track (AG01)
This paper proposes and demonstrates how to estimate agile software projects using collected data from prior similar projects. The authors discuss traditional ways of estimating software projects and show why these approaches are not feasible in estimating agile projects. They demonstrate estimating agile projects using actuals from historical features. They recommend a few additions to DoD’s Software Resource Data Report (SRDR) as well as a Standard Feature Breakdown Structure (FBS) to permit using this approach.
Keywords: Agile, Data Collection, IPM, Story Points
AG01 – PPT- Coonce – How Should we Estimate Agile Software
AG01 – Paper – Coonce – How Should we Estimate Agile Software
Agile ‘Mumbo Jumbo’
Agile Track (AG02)
You don’t put any stock in this Agile “mumbo jumbo” do you? Well, Agile is here to stay and is gaining popularity.This paper will discuss current issues and some solutions for cost estimating Agile projects, clear up common misconceptions about Agile, and Introduce an Agile approach to cost estimating, including a draft Agile Cost Estimating Manifesto with suggestions on how to incorporate it with current cost estimating training, so ICEAA and its members can BE Agile.
AG02 – PPT – Eden – Agile Mumbo Jumbo
AG02 – Paper – Eden – Agile Mumbo Jumbo
Keywords: Agile, DOD/MOD, Government, Methods, Program Management, Software
Agile: You’re Doing it Wrong (or how to know you’re doing it right)
Agile Track (AG03)
Daniel B. French
Agile is a hot topic in the IT world today. If your organization is using Agile, or considering it, there are a number of things you need to know. This presentation will discuss the pros and cons of Agile, how to determine if your organization is ready for it, proper Agile implementation, hybrid methodologies, and the organizational challenges when trying to make an organization Agile.
AG03 – PPT – French – Agile Doing It Wrong
Keywords: Agile, DOD/MOD, EVM, Function Points, Functional Requirements, Government, IT, Program Management, Software, Story Points, Hybrid Methodologies
Beyond the Manifesto: Tracking Agile Performance in a DoD Environment
Agile Track (AG04)
Gordon M. Kranz
The use of Agile methods are becoming prolific within the DoD Enterprise and Weapons systems development environment. Agile supports the incremental discovery of end system capability within the constraints of the DoD parameters. This paper investigates, through real world experience, the use of earned value techniques to strategically manage the Agile development process. One of the essential elements key to success is traceability of user requirements to Agile features.
AG04 – PPT – Kranz – Beyond the Manifesto
Agile and GAO Cost Estimating Best Practices
Agile Track (AG05)
This paper will examine how GAO’s cost estimating process can be applied to programs that are using an Agile framework. First, it will provide a brief overview of Agile processes and methods. Second, it will examine each of the 12 steps in the GAO cost estimating process and how those steps relate to an Agile framework. Finally, it will discuss how Agile artifacts can be leveraged to fulfill cost estimating documentation needs.
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Keywords: Agile, Government, IT, Project Controls
CMMI and Agile Development: A Binary Choice?
Agile Track (AG06)
Arlene F Minkiewicz
The Capability Maturity Model Integration for Development has a long and impressive history for progressing the cause of process improvement. Agile development is a paradigm for software projects that are characterized by collaborative, cross functional teams working closely with customers to deliver functionality regularly. Many say these two approaches can’t work in tandem. This paper explores this question with examples of both successes and failures.
AG06 – PPT – Minkiewicz – CMMI and Agile Development Binary Choice
AG06 – Paper – Minkiewicz – CMMI and Agile Development Binary Choice
Keywords: Agile, Program Management, Project Controls, CMMI, CMMI for Development, Process Improvement
Agile Delphi Estimating and Analyzing Schedule/Resource Realism for Software Projects
Agile Track (AG07)
One of the most important tasks for a software project manager is to accurately forecast the schedule and resources needed to complete the project. This paper will describe a novel approach to this problem that combines Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis with an innovative new technique for estimating software requirements, which utilizes an agile-style Delphi estimating methodology. This method has been successfully implemented on several government projects and is a viable option for any software project.
AG07 – PPT – Smallwood – Agile Delphi Estimating
Keywords: Agile, Functional Requirements, Monte Carlo, Software, Uncertainty
A Cost Model for Early Cost Calculation of Agile Deliveries
Agile Track (AG08)
Eric van der Vliet
Agile software development methodologies provide the IT industry with the flexibility they need to keep up with the faster change of business requirements. In agile software delivery, upfront detailed specifications are absent, yet investment decisions need budget input. The challenge is to build a cost model that takes essential (size) and additional cost drivers into account. This presentation explains a cost model that supports the cost calculation for agile delivery early in the process.
AG08 – PPT – VanDerVliet – Cost Model for Early Cost Calculation of Agile Deliveries
Keywords: Agile, Early Cost, Function Points, Parametrics, Software, Uncertainty, Cost Model, Cost Drivers, Business Requirements
Data Analysis Track
Assessing ERP Cost, Schedule and Size Growth
Data Analysis Track (DA02)
This study will examine percentage changes in cost, schedule, and size across Milestones A, B, C, and full deployment for DoD Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) programs. The analysis is based on 9 fielded systems collected from DoD authoritative data sources. Cost contributors, drivers, and factors by major cost elements will also be examined. Results may be used for crosschecking cost estimates or business case analyses at an early phase to inform funding decisions.
DA02 – PPT – GebreMariam – Assessing ERP Cost Schedule and Size Growth
Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Data-Driven, DOD/MOD, Early Cost, IT, Life Cycle, Methods, Regression, Risk, Software, Statistics
Production Rates: Do They Really Matter?
Data Analysis Track (DA03)
Production rate is widely assumed to be an important contributor to unit cost — higher production rates lead to lower unit costs, and vice versa. Examination of published data, however, leads to a more ambiguous picture. This paper examines the impact of rate by functional cost element, including the impact on learning curves. It concludes production rate impacts are real, but the impacts are uneven and sometimes reveal themselves in surprising ways.
DA03 – PPT – Johnstone -Production Rates Really Matter
DA03 – Paper – Johnstone -Production Rates Really Matter
Keywords: Labor, Learning Curves, Manufacturing, Methods, Parametrics
Lessons Learned in Leveraging Historical Cost, Schedule and Technical Data
Data Analysis Track (DA04)
The process of applying historical cost, schedule and technical data to develop new program estimates is often more difficult than textbooks suggest. The paper provides real-world insight to the issues that arise when capturing, analyzing and applying data for the next estimate. The goal is to integrate information from multiple products, systems and subsystems. Lessons learned include experience and best practices when working with financial, engineering, manufacturing and program management.
DA04 – PPT – Kiviat – Leveraging Historical Cost Schedule Technical
Keywords: Data Collection, Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Program Management
Technology Readiness Level (TRL) vs. Percent Development Cost
Data Analysis Track (DA05)
Advanced technology acquisition often proceeds in steps characterized by TRL of systems or components. The relationship between TRL ordinal number and percent of total acquisition cost could be used as a factor in estimating the cost of new acquisitions at each phase from concept definition through production decision. A study of historical data will be performed to establish such a relationship based on a specific definition of TRLs, which vary across government agencies.
DA05 – PPT – Linick – Technology Readiness Level
Keywords: Cost Management, Modeling, TRL
Machine Learning Approach to Cost Analysis
Data Analysis Track (DA06)
Joseph A. King
Denise J. Nelson
At ICEAA 2016, the keynote speaker presented a challenge to the cost estimating & analysis community: to develop cost estimating methodologies based on machine learning. Machine learning provides an alternate to parametric modeling. At Boeing, we are experimenting with several machine learning techniques for cost estimation and analysis; Random Forest prediction methodology, in particular, has shown encouraging results. This paper describes our cost applications of Random Forest.
DA06 – PPT – Mourikas – Machine Learning Approach to Cost Analysis
Keywords: Data-Driven, Methods, Modeling, Statistics, Machine Learning
Technology Development Cost and Schedule Modeling
Data Analysis Track (DA07)
A tangible need exists in the scientific, technology, and financial communities for economic forecast models that improve new or early life-cycle technology development estimating. Industry models, research, technology datasets, modeling approaches, and key predictor variables are first examined. Analysis is then presented, leveraging a robust industry project dataset, applying technology and system-related parameters to deliver higher performing parametric cost and schedule models.
DA07 – PPT – Alexander – Modeling Early Tech Development
DA07 – Paper – Alexander – Parametric Modeling for Early Tech Development
Keywords: DOD/MOD, Early Cost, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression, Risk, Scheduling, Statistics, Uncertainty, Variables, technology development, Economic Analysis, Cost Analysis, Investment Decision Analysis, Cost Estimating, Parametric Modeling
DHS Cost Analysis Overview
Data Analysis Track (DA08)
Cost Estimating and Analysis is a vital resource for program and project managers, regardless of agency or activity. July 2014 the cost analysis responsibilities and personnel were transferred from the DHS’s Office of Program Accountability and Risk Management to the Office of the Chief Financial Officer. This presentation will provide a history of the creation of a cost analysis capability in a new agency, changes over time, lessons learned and current successes of the Cost Analysis Division.
DA08 – PPT – DeReus – DHS Analysis Overview
Keywords: Budgeting, Government, Life Cycle, Operations, Program Management
Economic Analysis Track
Using Real Options to Quantify Portfolio Value in Business Cases
Economic Analysis Track (EA01)
George Bayer, Jr.
With the challenges in quantifying program risks, interdependencies, and the business case impact on portfolios, cost estimators can use real options to estimate probabilistic value in business cases and assess portfolio value. Many business cases not only add value as stand-alone investments, but they provide the opportunity for subsequent investments. Cost estimators can measure this incremental program value and the impact of a specific investment on a larger portfolio by using real options.
EA01 – Paper – Bayer – Real Options to Quantify Portfolio Value
EA01 – PPT – Bayer – Real Options to Quantify Portfolio Value
Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Government, Life Cycle, Methods, Modeling, Program Management, Risk, Portfolio Analysis, Valuation, business case
Discount Rate for Government Investment
Economic Analysis Track (EA02)
We often use a discounted-cash-flow construct to evaluate the Economic Viability of an investment. OMB-94 provides discount-rate guidance for internal investment (treasury rates) and public investment/regulatory programs (7% – rate of return on an average private sector investment). Since any resources consumed by the government must be foregone by the private sector, we will argue that the discount rate should be based on a rate that at least proxies the value of private investment.
EA02 – PPT – Beheler – Discount Rate for Government Investment
Keywords: Budgeting, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, DOD/MOD, Government, Infrastructure, Methods, Economic Viability
Are the Rates Right? Benchmark Protection Against Escalation SWAG
Economic Analysis Track (EA03)
Medical escalation rates continue to trend higher than general inflation – with significant impact on defense firms and acquisition affordability. Modest deltas in rates translate into billions of additional costs. This research presents benchmark escalation values for employer costs of employee medical compensation. The benchmarks, in turn, support company planning & collective bargaining and liberate government cost estimates from their traditional reliance on solely FPRPs and FPRAs.
EA03 – Paper – Flynn – Are The Rates Right
EA03 – PPT – Flynn – Are The Rates Right
Keywords: Cost Management, Data-Driven, Government, Labor, Methods, Parametrics, Program Management, Project Controls, Uncertainty, Indirect costs, medical escalation, affordability, benchmark values
The Rate You Want – Rethinking Cost Escalation in FAA Development
Economic Analysis Track (EA04)
Like most civilian agencies, the FAA has used ‘raw’ OMB escalation indices to produce then-year costs for its life cycle cost estimates. However, as an agency which incrementally funds many development programs, could the FAA benefit from recognizing time value of money principles at the estimation stage? We look at outlay data from across the agency to determine whether defense appropriations styled weighted indexes would significantly impact then-year FAA solution development costs.
EA04 – PPT – Krishnan – Rate You Want
Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Methods, Escalation, FAA
Terminal Facility Realignment: A Business Case Approach
Economic Analysis Track (EA05)
The Federal Aviation Administration applies a business case analysis approach to the decision process for realigning and consolidating Terminal facilities. A Microsoft Excel model has been developed to produce these analyses. It uniquely displays both costs and benefits in one place and includes graphical outputs of NPV over time. A key output of the analysis shows interesting cyclical trends of NPV rising, falling, and rising again over time in almost all scenarios.
EA05 – PPT – Oladipupo – Terminal Facility Realignment
Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Government, Life Cycle, Microsoft Excel, Modeling, Risk, Uncertainty
Kennedy Space Center’s Transformation to a Multi-User Spaceport
Economic Analysis Track (EA07)
In the past, launch pads were used almost exclusively for government missions. To support a growing private sector space economy, NASA’s Kennedy Space Center has transformed into a multi-user spaceport capable of handling the needs of a variety of companies from launch processing and operations through recovery. This presentation will provide an overview of the transformation and the NASA Business Case requirements needed in order to gain approval, and successfully establish these unique partnerships.
EA07 – PPT – Lambing – Kennedy Space Center Transformation
Keywords: Government, Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Business Case
EVM & Scheduling Track
NRO CAAG Spacecraft Test Schedule Estimating Relationship
EVM & Scheduling Track (EV02)
The NRO CAAG’s parametric model for estimating spacecraft testing schedule duration has been updated. The updated model incorporates data from government and commercial spacecraft contracts. The intent of this presentation is to share the model with the ICEAA community. The latest model will be presented, along with a case study of a satellite program that illustrates the importance of the chosen schedule drivers to system test schedule.
EV02 – PPT – Barkmeyer – System Test SER
Keywords: Data-Driven, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression, Scheduling, Space
Fully Integrated Cost & Schedule Method (FICSM) Analysis Schedule Implementation
EVM & Scheduling Track (EV04)
Dr. Jonathan Brown
Benjamin T. Unruh, Lt Col, USAF (Ret.)
The Joint Agency Cost Schedule Risk and Uncertainty Handbook released in March 2014 introduced the FICSM which integrates cost, schedule and risk estimating. Key to the FICSM process is creation of an analysis schedule including duration uncertainty. This study leveraged data from an active program to develop an analysis schedule as part of building a FICSM model. This paper describes the methods used to develop the analysis schedule and duration uncertainty used for this program.
EV04 – PPT – Brown – FICSM Analysis Schedule Implementation
Keywords: Cost Management, Data Collection, DOD/MOD, Government, Risk, Scheduling, Uncertainty, FICSM, Analysis Schedule
Beyond RIFT: Improved Metrics to Manage Cost and Schedule
EVM & Scheduling Track (EV05)
“Risk-Informed Finish Threshold” (RIFT) presented an innovative solution to the problem inherent in schedules that risk analysis results (time) cannot be allocated the same way as in cost models (dollars). Developing RIFT validation methods inspired an exploration into analyzing simulation data more meticulously. Methods described here provide unique insight into cost and schedule uncertainty results while introducing powerful new techniques to improve a project’s potential to complete on time, on budget.
EV05 – PPT – DeTore – Beyond RIFT
EV05 – Paper – DeTore – Beyond RIFT
Keywords: Program Management, Risk, Scheduling, Statistics, Uncertainty
Adopting DOD Best Practices in IPM to Non-DOD Needs
EVM & Scheduling Track (EV07)
David L. Wang
David T. Chiang
Non-DoD federal acquisition agencies have their own unique acquisition requirements and acquisition culture. However, many non-DoD acquisition agencies face similar challenges, specifically in the areas of acquisition program execution and program affordability. To address these challenges, there has been increased interest to consider tailoring DoD best practices in Program Management, Earned Value Management and acquisition lifecycle schedule management. This presentation discusses a systematic approach to tailoring DoD best practices for non-DoD acquisition needs.
EV07 – PPT – Wang – DOD Best Practices in IPM to non-DOD
Keywords: Decision Analysis, EVM, Government, Life Cycle, Process Engineering, Program Management
Cost Associated with Acquisition Complexity and Differing Levels of Mission Assurance
Methods Track (MM01)
In Government acquisition programs, the cost of what we buy is largely driven by how we buy. For satellites, this includes contracting, funding, oversight, reporting, testing, parts assurance requirements, and other factors. All of these are related, and no single attribute defines the cost curve. The NRO has developed and implemented a method that quantifies the cost of these factors and circumvents the usual debate about whether or not an acquisition is streamlined or commercial-like.
MM01 – PPT – Burgess – Cost Associated with Acquisition Complexity
Keywords: Data-Driven, DOD/MOD, Government, Space
Don’t Dis LOE: Modeling Production Sustaining Labor Across Multiple Lots
Methods Track (MM02)
The estimation of sustaining labor is often given little analysis; just assuming some constant level. However, in estimating production hours on large Programs, spanning multiple lots, where each lot is negotiated separately, conflicts often occur over the cost of sustainment labor. This briefing will look at different approaches to estimating and modeling sustaining labor, based upon varying cycle times for completing a single unit, and the number of units being procured in each lot.
MM02 – PPT – Burney – Dont Dis LOE
Keywords: Government, Labor, Learning Curves, Manufacturing, Modeling, Production, LOE, Level of Effort, Sustaining
Automated Data Collection Using Open Source Web Crawling Technology
Methods Track (MM03)
For many reasons, data gathering is often one of a cost estimator’s biggest challenges. Even in cases where data is available, the logistics of data collection can be daunting. This paper explores a methodology developed by PRICE utilizing free, open source web crawling technology to automatically seek and find commodity pricing for information technology hardware and software items. This presentation shares the nuts and bolts for everyone’s benefit.
MM03 – PPT – Foote – Automated Data Collection Web Crawling
Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, IT, Microsoft Excel, RapidMiner
A Framework to Price and Cost IT Network Services
Methods Track (MM05)
The correct pricing of an IT network offering aimed toward internal users can be an involved process. Different services targeted to some, but not all customers makes proper cost allocation challenging. Considerations such as mirroring the structure, if not the rates, of commercial offerings; reconciliation of differences between cost allocations and rational pricing; and influencing customer purchasing behavior adds to the complexity. An approach for costing and pricing IT services that address these requirements will be presented.
MM05 – PPT – Leahy – Framework to Price and Cost IT Network
Keywords: Cost Management, Decision Analysis, Functional Requirements, Government, Infrastructure, IT, Methods, Network
Don’t Get Caught in the Learning Curve Vacuum
Methods Track (MM06)
Production environments featuring multiple end items benefit from a manufacturer designing products and processes with a high degree of commonality and standardization. When estimating labor hours using learning curves, the estimator often overlooks commonality when considering quantities, slope, production rate and lost learning. This paper will analyze alternative approaches to defining commonality and how to account for commonality using learning curves in integrated production environments.
MM06 – PPT – McCarthy – Learning Curve Vacuum
MM06 – Paper – McCarthy – Learning Curve Vacuum
Keywords: Labor, Learning Curves, Manufacturing, Methods
Modeling Hardware Development Cost in a Low TRL / Pre-Acquisition Environment
Methods Track (MM08)
Estimating the cost of pre-concept programs, often with very immature TRL’s, is always challenging. This case study highlights the use of analogous programs and predictive modeling to overcome the challenge. We will explore the strategy of finding analogous components of a program, even when the overall program is unrelated. Predictive models can easily be tailored for the inherent uncertainty of these early programs, when we are unable to find relevant data.
MM08 – PPT – Snyder – Modeling Hardware Development Cost in a Low TRL
Keywords: DOD/MOD, Early Cost, Government, Parametrics
Exploring the of Results of Two Methodologies for Unmanned Space Estimation
Methods Track (MM09)
Independent validations of two separate predictive analytics methodologies were performed over the last two years. In both cases, common detailed assessments of past missions integrated technical and programmatic requirements to mimic a grass-roots bottom-up methodology. This presentation compares the process and top-level results from both approaches as well as explores several lessons learned.
MM09 – PPT – Swaren – Two Methodologies for Unmanned Space Estimation
Keywords: Decision Analysis, Government, Methods, Modeling, Program Management, Space, Unmanned Space Missions, Validations, Methodologies, Predictive Analytics
Deployment Cost Estimation for Electronic/IT Systems
Methods Track (MM10)
F. Gurney Thompson III
This paper will discuss our research into cost estimation for the deployment of Electronic and IT systems, also known as Operational/Site Activation. The deployments can span multiple sites/locations, and often require technical studies, end user working groups, and site survey visits in addition to the actual installation activities. This paper will discuss our research approach, sizing metrics, cost drivers, model structure, and future work.
MM10 – PPT – Thompson – Deployment Estimation for Electronic IT Systems
Keywords: Cost Management, Life Cycle, Modeling, Parametrics, Project Controls
Budgeting for Canadian Shipbuilding– Examining Predictive Cost Analytic Methods
Methods Track (MM11)
Predictive Cost Analytics plays a major role Canada’s Shipbuilding Strategy in developing cost and budget estimates. However, these estimates must be based on sound historical cost data. This paper discusses challenges faced by the Canadian PBO in developing reasonable estimates for the JSS, AOPS and CSC shipbuilding programs based on the quality of historical data available, the methodologies employed to address these challenges, and the influence of these estimates on decision-makers.
MM11 – PPT – Weltman – Budgeting for Canadian Shipbuilding
Keywords: Budgeting, Communication, Data Collection, Decision Analysis, Government, Methods, Modeling, Parametrics
Decision Trees and Cost Estimating
Methods Track (MM12)
Decision trees are predictive modeling approaches that recursively partition data, and apply simple prediction models to the resulting subgroups. Decision tree based prediction approaches have the benefits of being easy to interpret and explain, requiring little data preparation or cleaning, and the ability to model complex nonlinear relationships and variable interactions. This presentation explores the applicability of decision tree based prediction methods to cost estimating.
MM12 – PPT – Wilson – Decision Trees and Cost Estimating
Keywords: Methods, Statistics, Variables
Cost Estimating Canada’s Future Surface Combatants
Methods Track (MM13)
Canada has not built a new surface combatant since it completed the last of its 12 Halifax class frigates in 1996. Currently Canada is in the middle of a request for proposal to build, using a common hull, 12 new frigates and 3 new destroyers. This paper presents the first public cost estimate of these ships highlighting both the challenges that were encountered and the solutions that were used in determining a reliable cost estimate.
MM13- PPT – Story – Canada Surface Combatants
Keywords: Data Collection, DOD/MOD, Government, Learning Curves, Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression
Modeling the Influence of System and Application Complexity on the Cost of Cloud Hosting
Methods Track (MM14)
Daniel J. Harper
To refine cost estimates produced within a Cloud Total Ownership Cost model, MITRE is now prototyping an additional modeling feature that estimates the cost impact of migration and hosting complexity. While many cloud cost models rely on a limited set of cost drivers, other factors associated with general complexity significantly influence costs and are often ignored. Within the prototype, complexity assessments are plotted using intuitive spider diagrams for ready comparisons of candidate systems and applications for hosting in various cloud solutions
MM14 – PPT – Harper – Modeling Influence System and Application
Marco-Parametrics; Its Unique Capability and Application
Models Track (MM15)
Arlene F Minkiewicz
The Family of Advanced Cost Estimating Tools (FACET) has been used around the world as a macro parametric cost model at the early stages of a project life cycle. It has a unique capability to seamlessly transition from performance to design based estimating. FACET will also combine uncertainty in the inputs with those of the algorithm to produce a true uncertainty range. Now implemented in TruePlanning the FACET model is easy to access and apply.
MM15 – Paper – Shermon – Macro Parametrics Application
MM15 – PPT – Shermon – Macro Parametrics FACET
Keywords: Bayesian, Budgeting, Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, DOD/MOD, Early Cost, Modeling, Parametrics
Operating & Support Track
Projecting Program Spare Parts Sustainment with Incomplete Data
Operating & Support Track (OS01)
Analyzing a government acquisition, the team discovered that the existing agency supply chain system lacked transparency, and historical failure data was unavailable due to implementation of a new supply chain system. The team examined how to accurately project parts demand using incomplete data by conducting a comparative analysis between data sources, using subject matter experts to estimate upper and lower bounds, and applying statistical analysis fit curves to project spare parts needs.
OS01 – PPT – Anderson – Projecting Spare Parts
OS01 – Paper – Anderson – Projecting Program Spare Parts
Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Government, Life Cycle, Operations, Parametrics, Regression, Statistics, Failure Analysis
Sustainment Cost Data Collection
Operating & Support Track (OS02)
Operations and support costs can exceed 60% of the total Life Cycle Cost of DoD systems. Currently, the individual services have their Visibility & Management of Operating and Support Costs (VAMOSC) systems. However, with many sustainment functions performed by contractors, improved reporting on sustainment contracts is essential. This paper presents several data collection initiatives for sustainment efforts and their impacts on estimating O&S costs.
OS02 – PPT – Enser – Sustainment Cost Reporting
OS02 – Paper – Enser – Sustainment Cost Reporting
Keywords: Data Collection, Life Cycle, Sustainment, Contractor Logistics Support, Performance Based Logistics, 1921, 1921-5
Deriving Software Sustainment Cost Estimating Relationships in a Diverse Army Execution Environment
Operating & Support Track (OS04)
For the past four years, the Army, under the leadership of DASA-CE, has been collecting and analyzing Army system software maintenance cost and technical execution data to support the development of more accurate cost estimation methods. The presentation will present the cost methods and cost estimation relationships developed from the analysis of the execution data sets. The results of the Army’s analysis efforts, including the detailed statistical analysis will be made available.
OS04 – PPT – Jones – Army Software Maintenance CERs
OS04 – Paper – Jones – Army Software Maintenance CERs
Keywords: Budgeting, Cost Management, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, Early Cost, Government, IT, Labor, Life Cycle, Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression, Risk, Software, Statistics, Variables, Software Maintenance, Software Sustainment, CERs
Implementing Additive Manufacturing Technology into the Logistics Supply Chain
Operating & Support Track (OS05)
Patrick K. Malone
Recent explosive growth in Additive Manufacturing (AM) or 3D printing is providing logistics supply chain economic opportunities. We investigate self-sufficient repair and maintenance capabilities for isolated environments, impacts on strategic readiness, increasing responsiveness and cost efficiencies not available in traditional supply chains. Our research will evaluate and contrast legacy logistics architectures against AM elements that will drive cost downward over lifecycles to meet current and future affordability goals within the Government and commercial organizations.
OS05 – PPT – Malone – Implementing AM
OS05 – Paper – Malone – Implementing AM
Keywords: Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Government, Infrastructure, 3D Printing, Additive Manufacturing
Expanding the Range of Your Data: A Small Ships Case Study
Operating & Support Track (OS06)
While the Navy has comprehensive Operating and Support (O&S) data for current Navy ships, there are a limited number of smaller boats available for inclusion. With increasing technological advances and a renewed effort to reduce personnel, smaller boats are receiving increased interest. This paper explores using Coast Guard O&S data to supplement Navy data for use in estimating O&S costs for smaller boats. Topics include data sources, normalization, and comparisons of data between the services.
OS06 – PPT – Hudgins – Expanding Data Small Ships
OS06 – Paper – Hudgins – Expanding Data Small Ships
Keywords: Budgeting, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Government, Life Cycle, Methods, Modeling, Operations
Assessing Confidence Levels in Funding and Budgeting NASA Science Missions
Parametrics Track (PA01)
Robert E Bitten
Charles D. Hunt
NPR7120.5E requires that NASA utilize joint confidence level (JCL) analysis to set budget and funding guidelines for projects within its portfolio of missions. This paper addresses analysis that was conducted to determine the effect of different confidence levels on the performance of different cases of mission portfolios. The results show that the most effective confidence level varies depending on the case. An overview of the policy, methodology, cases and results are discussed.
PA01 – PPT – Bitten – Impact of Confidence Levels NASA
PA01 – Paper – Bitten – Impact of Confidence Levels NASA
Keywords: Cost Management, Government, Modeling, Program Management, Portfolio Analysis
Data Driven Confidence Regions for Cost Estimating Relationships
Parametrics Track (PA03)
Dr. Christopher Jarvis
Cost estimating models typically contain many uncertain parameters. The uncertainty of the parameter values drives the uncertainty of the model outputs. In this paper we review and compare the techniques to compute the confidence regions for linear and nonlinear regression methods. Application to two common CERs is presented with comments regarding the practical implementations and limitations within the current cost estimating environment.
PA03 – Paper – Jarvis – Data Driven CRs for CERs
PA03 – PPT – Jarvis – Data Driven CRs for CERs
Keywords: Data-Driven, Methods, Modeling, Regression, Risk, Statistics, Uncertainty, Variables
Moment One, Please
Parametrics Track (PA04)
Cost models constructed without statistical correlation are designed to underestimate the mean, unless they are simple sums. Any model that uses a factor or other instance so functional correlation will miss the first moment, not to mention others, unless statistical correlation among the CERs is also applied. An internal audit of 13 recent satellite cost estimates comprising of 52 CERs shows the mean cost changes by as much as 9% when this correlation is applied.
PA04 – PPT – Krause – Moment One Please
Keywords: Bias, Government, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Risk, Space, Statistics, Uncertainty
Modeling with Gumby: Pros and Cons of the Weibull Curve
Parametrics Track (PA05)
The Weibull function is used to model various cost phenomena. This popularity is driven by its significant flexibility, driven by its nature as a two parameter function. Additional parameters result in flexibility, which while advantageous, also places incorporating estimates at risk of over fitting (i.e., a model that fits the observed data well, but has little predictive power). Presentation relays theory and exhaustively reviews pros and cons for cost estimating.
PA05 – PPT – Mender – Modeling with Gumby
Keywords: Cost Management, DOD/MOD, EVM, Government, Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Program Management
Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Regression of Log Normal Error
Parametrics Track (PA06)
The use of Log-transformed Ordinary Least Squares (LOLS) has been criticized for the use of transformation, which results in biased estimates. LOLS is a maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the median when the residuals are lognormally distributed, for which we provide evidence. We discuss MLE and show how to use this technique to directly model untransformed lognormal error. We also discuss two other popular methods, ZMPE and MUPE, in the context of MLEs.
PA06 -PPT – Smart – Maximum Likelihood Estimation
PA06 -Paper – Smart – Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Keywords: Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression, Statistics
Novel Manufacturing Methods ~ Characterizing the Impacts to Cost
Parametrics Track (PA07)
Average unit procurement costs for military aircraft are growing at a rate that far exceeds inflation. Efforts such as the Air Force Research Lab’s Composite Affordability Initiative and the Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft have demonstrated alternative manufacturing methods utilizing composites to achieve significant part and fastener count reductions. This analysis highlights the concepts of large composite unitization in fixed wing aircraft manufacturing and its resulting effects to cost.
PA07 – PPT – Sayre – Unitized Composites
Keywords: Data Collection, Early Cost, Government, Life Cycle, Manufacturing, Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression, Statistics, Variables
Policy and Standards Track
Assuring Credibility in the Cost Estimate
Policy and Standards Track (PS01)
Credibility can be the most important attribute of a cost estimate. This paper traces the evolution of quality metrics that assess cost credibility in the words of senior government executives, industry leaders, estimating and engineering handbooks, professional journals, and government auditing manuals. The presentation concludes with recommendations for the estimating professional.
PS01 – PPT – Apgar – Assuring Credibility in the Cost Estimate
PS01 – Paper – Apgar – Assuring Credibility in the Cost Estimate
Keywords: Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Program Management, credibility, estimating
In Theory Or In Practice? The Optimistic World of Pessimistic Cost Estimators
Policy and Standards Track (PS02)
Erin K. Barkel
In 2015, Andy Prince won the Best Paper award for The Psychology of Cost Estimating, a piece which highlighted a number of cognitive biases which impact the work of cost estimators. Of these cognitive biases, the one that seemed to resonate most strongly with the community was optimism bias. However, not everyone is worried that the glass is half-full. Where do negativity and pessimism bias fit? How does our understanding of these biases change how we communicate with stakeholders?
PS02 – PPT – Barkel – Theory or in Practice
Keywords: Communication, cognitive bias
How to Use Predictive Analytics for a DCAA-Compliant Estimating System
Policy and Standards Track (PS04)
Anthony A. DeMarco
The DCAA ensures that Defense contractors use an acceptable estimating. They establish acceptable estimating system compliance criteria and audit’s contractors to determine compliance. Non-compliance can be devastating. This presentation demonstrates a data-driven estimating methodology that complies and reduces the time and labor necessary to produce estimates. It illustrates the roles and procedures necessary for success. Six key compliance tenants are identified and key benefits quantified.
PS04 – PPT – DeMarco – Predictive Analytics for DCAA Compliant
Keywords: Cost Management, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Government, Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression
Developing a Cost Capability Roadmap
Policy and Standards Track (PS05)
Developing cost estimating tools and databases is critical to analyst productivity and the quality of analyses. Historically, organizations struggled to systematically improve capabilities due to a lack of a long-term plan, unstable budgets, and priorities that shift with changes in leaders. This presentation walks through how one organization confronted this challenge by developing a roadmap that links the mission to requisite tools, data, and training; and a plan to achieve the roadmap.
PS05 – PPT – Fitch – Building a Cost Estimating Capability
Keywords: Cost Management, Data Collection, Government, Methods, Strategic Roadmap Training
The Shortcomings of Cost Estimating Templates
Policy and Standards Track (PS06)
Templates are seen as a best practice in many industries to standardize workflow and reduce redundancy. However, templates may not be the ideal solution for cost estimating as they can suppress innovation and constrain analysts. Instead, best practices should be determined using process improvement methods and implemented to create customized estimates. This paper explores leveraging Lean Six Sigma techniques to determine alternatives to templates in order to put forth the best estimates.
PS06 – PPT – Gadreault – Shortcomings of Cost Estimating Templates
PS06 – Paper – Gadreault – Shortcomings of Cost Estimating Templates
Keywords: Methods, Modeling, Process Engineering, Program Management
The Art of Cost: Sun-Tzu’s Strategic Insight in Cost Estimation
Policy and Standards Track (PS07)
Brian A. Gillespie
Strategy is the process employed to determine how political purpose is translated into action. Clausewitz in his grand work “”On War”” argued that war serves a political purpose. So too does cost estimation, for at its most fundamental level, cost estimation attempts to determine the level of resources needed to achieve a political outcome. As one of the greatest enduring works on military strategy, what does The Art of War teach us about cost estimation?
PS07 – PPT – Gillespie – Art of Cost Sun Tsu.docx
PS07 – Paper – Gillespie – Art of Cost Sun Tsu
Coherence & Oddities: A Retrospective of Cost Estimating Publications 1978-2016
Policy and Standards Track (PS08)
Ross A. Jackson
Bradley C. Boehmke
Intellectual sedimentation can operate unobserved within professions. Assessing publication trends serves to make such conventional wisdom explicit. Our analysis of articles from the Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics (and its predecessors) provides insight regarding research coherence and oddities within the cost estimating community. This knowledge is essential for envisioning alternative futures and could be of benefit to those engaged in the praxis of cost estimating or its research.
PS08 – PPT- Jackson – Coherence & Oddities
PS08 – Paper – Jackson – Coherence & Oddities
Keywords: Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, EVM, Learning Curves, Software
A History of Thought in Defense Acquisitions
Policy and Standards Track (PS09)
Eric M. Lofgren
As Congress debates another round of defense acquisition reform, the necessary role for the cost estimator is affirmed. But how did this role come about and what are future implications? From the famed RAND systems analyses of the 1950s to the introduction of data reporting systems still in use today, this paper will explore the rich history of thought in defense acquisition, giving a special eye to controversies and continuing challenges that affect cost estimators.
PS09 – Paper – Lofgren – History of Thought in Defense Acquisitions
PS09 – PPT – Lofgren – History of Thought in Defense Acquisitions
Keywords: Budgeting, Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Program Management, Uncertainty, Systems analysis
Establishing and Implementing Cost Estimating Standards
Policy and Standards Track (PS10)
As part of its efforts to create a world-class cost estimating capability, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) wrote a cost estimating handbook and established an independent assessment team to ensure adherence to the handbook. As a result of this, MDA has received positive feedback from GAO in its progress towards this goal. This briefing describes in detail the processes and procedures that MDA has developed.
PS10 – PPT – Patel – Establishing and Implementing Cost Estimating Standards
Keywords: Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, DOD/MOD, Functional Requirements, Government, Labor, Learning Curves, Life Cycle, Manufacturing, Methods, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Risk, Software, Statistics, Uncertainty, Variables, Best Practices
Estimating Challenges and Solutions at NASA: Past, Present, & Future
Policy and Standards Track (PS11)
NASA’s cost estimating landscape is fraught with unique challenges. Missions often incorporate cutting-edge technology and operate in harsh environments with no margin for error. Goddard’s Cost Estimating, Modeling, & Analysis (CEMA) Office has developed robust methodologies to create realistic, transparent cost estimates for missions with little or no cost heritage. This paper discusses past and current states of cost estimation at Goddard and provides insights to shape future improvement.
PS11 – PPT – Samuels – Estimating Challenges Solutions NASA Goddard
Keywords: Data-Driven, Early Cost, Government, Life Cycle, Methods, Monte Carlo, Risk, Space
Anatomy of the Future Department of Defense (DoD) Cost Estimator
Policy and Standards Track (PS13)
Tamiko L. Ritschel
Jonathan D. Ritschel
The need for a specialized, properly qualified DoD cost estimating workforce has resulted in a migration of civilian billets from a financially focused job series to the 1515 Operations Research series. We analyze the origins of this change, implications for the current workforce, and then discuss the anatomy of the future DoD cost analyst. While we focus on recent changes occurring within the U.S. Air Force workforce, the future implications are relevant to all Services.
PS13 – PPT – Ritschel – Anatomy of the Future DoD Cost Estimator
PS13 – Paper – Ritschel – Anatomy of the Future DoD Cost Estimator
Keywords: Cost Management, DOD/MOD, Government, Labor
Masters in Cost Estimating and Analysis
Policy and Standards Track (PS14)
This presentation provides an update on the all-Distance Learning Master’s Degree and/or Certificate Program in Cost Estimating and Analysis (MCEA / CCEA) offered at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS).
PS14 – PPT – Nussbaum – NPS Masters Program
Contract Geometry Best Practices for Incentive Contracting
Risk Track (RI01)
Peter J. Braxton
With the current emphasis on Incentive Contracting, the cost analyst plays a vital role in establishing target cost, fee, and shareline. Drawing from the Joint Contract Price Database, this paper examines actual contract geometries across a wide range of programs and their effectiveness in encouraging cost management. Using the published Risk-Based ROS methodology, it provides a framework for implementing incentive arrangements for both competitive and negotiated procurements.
RI01 – Paper – Braxton – Contract Geometry Best Practices1
RI01 – PPT – Braxton – Contract Geometry Best Practices
Keywords: Cost Management, Data-Driven, DOD/MOD, Government, Methods, Program Management, Risk, Statistics, Contracts, Contract Management, Incentive Contracting, Incentive Fee, CPIF, FPIF
A ‘Common Risk Factor’ Method to Estimate Correlations Between Distributions
Risk Track (RI02)
A ‘common risk factor’ method uses expert-derived risk factors to estimate correlation between two distributions. The premise is to estimate mutual information among risk factors that underlie each distribution. Approximation of such mutual information leverages properties of the joint probability distribution of a unit square. Geometric outputs of each pair of common random variables are compared to estimate common risk factor ‘intersections’ that are, in turn, proxies of correlation.
RI02 PPT – Greenberg – Common Risk Factor
Keywords: Bias, Government, Life Cycle, Methods, Microsoft Excel, Modeling, Risk, Scheduling, Space, Statistics, Uncertainty, Variables, Correlation, Correlation Coefficient, Covariance, Variance, Risk Factors, Expert Opinion, Expert Judgment, Expert Elicitation, Triangular Distribution, Random Variables, Probability, Probabilistic, Joint Probability Distribution, Pearson, Spearman
Reducing S-Curve Alchemy: Gold from a New SAR Database
Risk Track (RI04)
S-curves typically address only “known unknowns.” They’re built upon an analysis of cost risk and uncertainty – element by element. But, they fail to address the ambiguity of the curve itself, or the degree of confidence that its proffered probabilities are actually correct. This confidence factor, of course, is hard to measure. The “unknown unknowns,” in other words, are not explicitly captured since their probabilities are a mystery. This research fills the gap in knowledge.
RI04 – Paper – Andrews – S Curve Alchemy1
RI04 – PPT – Andrews – S Curve Alchemy
Keywords: Cost Management, Data Collection, DOD/MOD, Government, Life Cycle, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Program Management, Risk, Statistics, Uncertainty
Being Certain About Uncertainty, Part 1
Risk Track (RI05)
Doing cost risk analysis is hard because we don’t really know what a good cost risk analysis looks like. In this paper we will explore the challenges to doing good cost risk analysis and discuss ways to know if your cost risk analysis is any good. We will also examine the phenomena of extreme cost growth and lay the groundwork for future work.
RI05 – PPT – Prince – Being Certain about Uncertainty
RI05 – Paper – Prince – Being Certain about Uncertainty
Keywords: Data-Driven, Monte Carlo, Risk, Uncertainty
Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Improves Cost Contingency Calculation
Risk Track (RI07)
David T. Hulett
The main benefits of integrated cost-schedule risk analysis are improvement of the estimates of cost contingency and identification of the main risks to cost for mitigation purposes. The main focus will be on estimating the cost contingency needed and identifying risks to cost, which may be independent of schedule or indirectly due to schedule risk. New simulation software including iterative risk prioritization will be used to illustrate these points.
RI07 PPT – Hulett – Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk
Keywords: Cost Management, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Risk
Using Quantum Theory and Monte Carlo Multiverse to Manage Risk
Risk Track (RI08)
Need to better predict your EAC? Tired of being surprised? Great! Not an expert on quantum theory or the multiverse? No problem! This hands-on session will give a high level view of how quantum theory can help us understand our EAC by viewing it as a multiverse. We’ll then explore an Excel model that takes your EAC and uses Monte Carlo analysis to reveal all possible futures. Attendees get a copy of the model!
RI08 – PPT – Eskue – Monte Carlo Multiverse
Keywords: Bayesian, Bias, Budgeting, Communication, Cost Management, Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, EVM, Methods, Microsoft Excel, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Performance Management, Program Management, Regression, Risk, Statistics, Uncertainty, Variables, Quantum Theory
Software Projects Estimation & Control
Software Track (SW01)
This talk presents 1) an outline of the design of the ‘2nd generation’ COSMIC Function Point method for measuring a functional size of software; 2) Industry evidence of its versatility & value in software project benchmarking & estimating in business, real-time, infrastructure, component, mobile, IoT, cloud software, via traditional & agile methods; 3) how it can be used for early and rapid sizing at estimation time; 4) how size measurement can be automated with very high accuracy.
SW01 – PPT – Abran – Software Projects Estimation Control
SW01 – Paper – Abran – Software Projects Estimation Control
Keywords: Agile, Early Cost, Function Points, Functional Requirements, Government, Regression, Software, Statistics, COSMIC, functional size measurement, early software sizing, software project estimating, ISO 19761, real-time embedded software, project control, requirements measurement
Bottom Up Methods of Estimating Software SE/PM and Non-DCTI Costs
Software Track (SW02)
Systems Engineering/Program Management (SE/PM) and additional non-Design, Code, Test, and Integration (Non-DCTI) activities performed during software development efforts are often significant and drive estimates of total project costs. Yet, cost estimates often omit the detailed research and analysis needed to adequately model SE/PM & Non-DCTI costs. This brief will present bottom up methods useful for understanding and estimating these costs and share analysis of recent SE/PM & Non-DCTI data.
SW02 – PPT – Black – Bottom Up Methods of Estimating Software
Keywords: Budgeting, Cost Management, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Early Cost, Government, IT, Methods, Modeling, Program Management, Software
Reliable Non-Design, Code, Test, and Integration Cost Relationships
Software Track (SW03)
Software cost estimates require ratios derived from historic cost reports for non-design, code, test, and integration (NDCTI) cost elements. Since NDCTI accounts for as much as 50% of the estimate, a comprehensive historical data set is critical to ensuring an accurate estimate. The authors have recently analyzed over ten years of actual cost data from DoD command and control systems to develop a new set of NDCTI ratios. The results also bring new insight into “fixed” versus “variable” cost.
SW03 – PPT – Goucher – Reliable Non-Design Code Test Integration
Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, DOD/MOD, Early Cost, Government, IT, Methods, Modeling, Performance Management, Process Engineering, Program Management, Risk, Software, Statistics, Uncertainty, Variables
Objective SLOC: An Alternative Method to Sizing Software Development Efforts
Software Track (SW04)
Equivalent Source Lines of Code (ESLOC) is the basis of methodology used by many organizations for collecting and estimating software development costs. Selecting ESLOC parameters requires insight into the software reuse. Too often data collectors are unable to verify the appropriateness of the assigned ESLOC parameters and validate their implementation. This paper examines the drawbacks of ESLOC, and presents an alternative and more objective method to estimating software development effort.
SW04 – PPT – Kicinski – Objective SLOC
Keywords: Data Collection, Government, Methods, Software
Software Effort Estimation Models for Contract Cost Proposal Evaluation
Software Track (SW06)
This study will introduce regression models and benchmarks for predicting software development effort using input variables typically available at contract bidding phase. The analysis is based on 200 DoD projects delivered from 2004 to 2016. The first set predicts effort using initial software requirements along with peak staff, application domain, and other categorical variables. The second set predicts effort specifically for agile software development using data from 16 agile projects.
SW06 – Paper – Rosa – Software Effort Estimation Models
SW06 – PPT – Rosa – Software Effort Estimation Models
Keywords: Agile, Data-Driven, Early Cost, Function Points, Functional Requirements, Parametrics, Regression, Software, Statistics
Software Size Growth
Software Track (SW07)
Software cost estimating relationships often rely on software size growth percentages. Actual delivered source lines of code (SLOC) may be predicted with categories of early code estimates such as new, modified, reuse, and auto-generated SLOC. Uncertainty distributions will be presented to represent growth by code category for use in cost modeling.
SW07 – PPT – Russo – Software Size Growth Study
Keywords: Software, Uncertainty, SLOC, Software Size Growth
Analysis of Software Cost Estimation Models Using Normalized, Stratified Data
Software Track (SW08)
Software Resources Data Reports (SRDR) are the DoD’s effort to improve cost estimation efforts by collecting metrics on software programs. Existing SRDRs were normalized in a manner consistent with previous efforts and productivities were analyzed using three popular software cost estimation models (SLIM, SEER, and COCOMO). Calculated values were tested against model thresholds and the results were tested for accuracy. Findings indicate some models outperform others and schedule impacts results.
SW08 – PPT – Strickland – Software Estimation Using Normalized Stratified
Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, DOD/MOD, Government, Methods, Microsoft Excel, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression, Software, Statistics, Variables
The Journey from “Bottom-up” to Predictive Modelling BOE
Software Track (SW09)
Predictive Cost Modeling has the potential to save significant money over conventional bottom-up bidding with better accuracy. This paper outlines a process to implement predictive cost analytics in an organization that been dependent on bottom-up estimating for decades. Walk with us down the path discussing implementation, change management, adoption and stakeholder challenges. Explore architecting the solution for maximum leverage at ROI.
SW09 – PPT – Saleski – Journey to Predictive Cost
Keywords: Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Software, Estimating, Bidding, Analytics
Previous ICEAA Workshops & Events:
Most papers and presentations from 2013 and earlier are available. Email us to request a paper or presentation.