The members of the ICEAA cost community employed by Original Equipment Manufacturers face challenges that differ from those employed by the government or other private sector organizations. To identify, acknowledge, and address these challenges, ICEAA has formed the OEM COG: the Original Equipment Manufacturers’ Cooperative Opportunities Group.
The mission of the OEM COG is to create a dialogue between ICEAA and our OEM members, explore ways ICEAA can provide support and solutions tailored to our OEM community, and provide a forum where members from various OEM organizations can communicate and share best practices.
Previous Meeting Recordings:
Attending an OEM COG webinar counts as 1 hour of training or 0.1 points towards your CCEA recertification.
ChatGPT Friend or Foe is an insightful exploration into the capabilities and nuances of ChatGPT. Delving deep into the genesis of this AI model the presentation tracks its evolution from inception by OpenAI to its fourth iteration. Patrick Casey, a Senior Cost Analyst at Quantech Services, candidly shares his experiences with the tool, highlighting its transformative power in various use cases for cost analysts ranging from WBS considerations to innovative recipe creations. While celebrating its prowess the presentation does not shy away from addressing its limitations and security concerns, urging a cautious approach. As a grand finale, attendees are treated to an entirely AI-generated TV commercial. This engaging journey demystifies ChatGPT offering both appreciation and critical insight into this modern marvel. Beyond mere technology the presentation invites audiences to consider the impact of AI in our lives challenging us to harness its potential responsibly.
Presenter: Patrick Casey
A passion for mathematics and research made Cost Analysis a perfect fit for Patrick Casey at Quantech Services. He currently has 4.5 years of DoD experience supporting aircraft modifications, cloud transformation efforts, various large CI/DC pipeline programs, and creating training on a plethora of topics. Patrick currently has certifications as an AWS Cloud Practitioner, SAFe Lean Agilist, and IFPUG Function Point Specialist (CFPS). He holds a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of New Hampshire.
Bridging Generational Gaps
ICEAA’s OEM COG has formed a panel of “first-decade” young estimators to give their opinions, ideas, and experiences with two of those table topics: the future of hybrid/remote working and the shortage of skilled professionals, and how those two topics relate to each other, especially in terms of encouraging or incentivizing younger professionals. What motivates the younger workforce? What do they think the best ways to overcome communication and training barriers are, particularly those for whom remote work has been the norm for all or most of their careers? What lessons have they learned from interacting with older professionals, and what advice can they give us as we too adjust to the new workforce environment?
Panelists:
Samantha Bailey, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company
Sam Bailey is a production operations estimator at Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company in Fort Worth, Texas. She has 10 years of professional work experience in data analysis, project/subcontract management, and education, including 5 years in estimating. She has worked on a variety of F-35 program efforts with estimates involving manufacturing, tooling, quality, and engineering. Some estimating techniques to execute these efforts have comprised cost estimating relationships, learning curve analysis, and data modeling. She has also been involved in multiple digital transformation efforts, involving tools like Alteryx, Tableau, Power Queries, and Access. She has a Bachelor of Arts in Mathematics with a minor in English from the University of Texas at Arlington.
Michael Finnegan, The Boeing Company
Michael Finnegan currently works for the Boeing Company in El Segundo, California. After earning his Masters in Mathematics at Missouri State University, he joined the Business Skills Rotation Program within the Boeing Company in his hometown of St. Louis, Missouri. His first rotation was in Labor Estimating & Pricing, where he also had the opportunity to attend the ICEAA Conference in San Diego. He began to seek out opportunities to further his career in Estimating & Pricing, which were limited in St. Louis at the time, so he moved to Philadelphia, PA, for his second rotation in Procurement Financial Analysis. After three years in the procurement side of the business, he attempted a rotation in Integrated Scheduling, where he lasted a total of 3 months before moving back into a Procurement Finance role. Roughly five years into his career, he had a midlife crisis due to not wanting to settle down at the old age of 28. His mentor found a role for him within Satellites Estimating & Pricing in El Segundo, CA, where he currently works as a parametric cost estimator, building cost models, satellite proposals, and independent cost analyses. In his spare time, he can be found with one of his run clubs (either running or at the brewery), at the bowling alley, or traveling for a marathon.
Jacqueline Magistro, BAE Systems, Inc.
My name is Jacqueline and I have many years of finance under my belt. I fell into pricing based on a career change. With the love of numbers, finance was always a fantastic place, but can get mundane, so this led me to pricing, which never gets boring! The past several years I have had the opportunity to work on the Legacy, MIDS and NTCDL programs, as well as, continuously working all repair bids. I train employees on an application called Golden Eagle and assist when end users have trouble. My training is kept up to date and I enjoy finding new areas to learn. I have attended the peer-to-peer meeting last year and again this year. She also has a mentor to lead her in new areas. I am always looking for new challenges or to try and simplify a process.
Brady Thompson, Bechtel Plant Machinery Inc.
Brady Thompson is an accomplished Senior Data Scientist and Information Architect with extensive experience in data analysis, machine learning, and IT architecture modernization. Currently at Bechtel Plant Machinery Inc., he specializes in designing scalable data-driven systems using Microsoft Azure and other advanced platforms. Brady is known for leading enterprise-wide initiatives, including the adoption of Azure Synapse, AI, and Power BI tools, representing BPMI as their Estimating Subject Matter Expert, as well as a mentoring data science and engineering teams. With a strong background in business intelligence and supply chain analytics from previous roles at Dick’s Sporting Goods, Brady holds a Master’s in Quality and Manufacturing Management from Penn State and is currently attending the Naval Postgraduate School for a certificate in Estimating and Analytics.
How to Better Estimate and Forecast Production Costs:
Use Your Own Data to produce data driven defensible estimates
For the answers to these questions and more, join us for a live discussion. We will take a look at some of the biggest challenges that teams face in creating cost estimates and forecasts, as well as best practices in a production environment.
- Overcoming the data challenges that hold back estimating teams
- Applying the proper learning curve to the right situations to win more bids
- Applying the best practices that deliver consistently higher profitability
The speakers are Fred Beck, Space Systems BD Director (Booz Allen Hamilton), Sandy Burney, Cost Strategist (Northrop Grumman), and Tom Shanahan, President and CEO (ProjStream). Collectively, we bring many years of cost estimating leadership and project management to the discussion.
In theory, estimating costs is easy, provided all the data is present. However, many OEMs that we engage with express that, in a production environment, gathering data and using it to make solid data-driven estimates is complex and a significant source of risk in practice. Challenges arise in estimating and forecasting quantities or units of production and labor.
We will reveal the best practices that position your engineers, technical SMEs, and solution architects to achieve better estimate outcomes.
Speakers:
Fred Beck
Space Systems BD Director
Booz Allen Hamilton
Fred is a Strategic Director who brings over 35 years of detailed experience developing strategic cost estimates for DoD, IC, and Commercial customers. He has developed complex solutions and associated cost models for mission-critical systems for Launch, Ground, SATCOM, Missile Defense, Space Domain Awareness, and other Space missions for a broad set of commercial and Government customers. During his career, Fred has created and managed high-performance teams, excelling in all phases of the program lifecycle, from early business development through contract completion, while specializing in the development and capture of new business.
Sandy Burney
Cost Strategist
Northrop Grumman
Sandy provides cost and capture strategy consulting for Northrop Grumman. In his 30+ year career, Sandy has provided cost-estimating analyses as a Government, SETA, and OEM employee. Across these three types of employers, Sandy has performed forecasting, cost estimation, and modeling within specific cost groups, system engineering, capture, and pricing organizations. In the past, Sandy was the lead cost estimator on several production programs and developed cost models utilizing a combination of learning curve and historical data cost estimating relationships involving strategy, solutioning, and cost estimation.
Tom Shanahan
President and CEO
ProjStream
Mr. Shanahan is the founder of ProjStream with over 20 years of experience in cost estimating, project management and EVM, bid and proposal development, and strategy and software application development. One of Tom’s main focus points has been working with contractors to improve cost estimates by leveraging existing data in a meaningful way.
Impacts of Digital Engineering to the Cost Estimate
Defense programs across the services are implementing digital engineering throughout the acquisition lifecycle to develop, manufacture, and sustain their platforms. How should cost estimators account for these new practices? This presentation will focus on the impact of implementing DE to the cost estimate. Based on literature reviews, discussions with SMEs, and review of policy, we will propose investments and cost uncertainties for the estimator to consider throughout the lifecycle of a platform.
Download slides: Impacts of Digital Engineering to the Cost Estimate (PDF)
Speaker: Brittany Clayton is an Operations Researcher at the RAND Corporation. Her professional interests include lifecycle cost estimating and analysis, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, and acquisition policy research for defense programs. Brittany joined RAND in 2018 after a decade of civil service with the Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA). Brittany holds an M.S. in Operations Research from George Mason University and a B.A. with majors in Mathematics and Spanish from Washington & Jefferson College.
Design to Cost Applied to a Fictional Product Support Center Case Study
Hosted by the OEM COG and ICEAA Region 6
The Design to Cost methodology has long been touted as an essential element of an affordable product development undertaking however explanations tend to be a bit on the philosophical side leaving audiences wondering how to approach the specifics of their own applications. This presentation intentionally avoids the philosophical aspects and focuses on the specific steps that might be taken in an illustrative, albeit fictional, design to cost example for the design and offering of product support center. Pertinent content from the cost estimating body of knowledge provides a foundation to build upon.
Speaker: John W. Deem
John Deem is a business analyst for Lockheed Martin Aeronautics with over 30 years of experience in cost estimating, cost modeling and affordability analysis for military aircraft both on the industry proposal side and the government procurement side. He has been a longtime member of ICEAA and its predecessor organizations for over 30 years as well. He has a Bachelor of Science degree in industrial engineering from the University of Missouri in Colombia and a master’s degree in business administration from Texas Christian University. John holds a CCE/A© certification.
Manufacturing defense systems at different sites is increasingly common due to foreign coproduction and international cooperative ventures. These situations challenge estimators, posing questions about the transfer of learning and relative efficiency of multiple production sites. This paper examines cost history from World War II, when U.S. bomber production lines were shared across multiple companies. The conclusions are tested against modern experience and guidance provided to estimators seeking help.
Paper – Second Source Manufacturing
Slides – Second Source Manufacturing
Author: Brent M. Johnstone
Brent Johnstone is a Lockheed Martin Fellow and production air vehicle cost estimator at Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company in Fort Worth, Texas. He has 34 years’ experience in the military aircraft industry, including 31 years as a cost estimator. He has worked on the F-16 program and has been most recently the lead Production Operations cost estimator for the F-35 program. He has a Master of Science from Texas A&M University and a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Texas at Austin.
Inflation and Escalation
Slides Download
OSD CAPE reports directly to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense and serves as an independent source of unbiased analysis and decision support. They provide the Department with timely, insightful, and unbiased analysis on resource allocation and cost estimation problems to deliver the optimum portfolio of military capabilities through efficient and effective use of each taxpayer dollar.
This presentation will provide an overview of CAPE’s new Inflation and Escalation Handbook. The new version of the handbook addresses “constant price” and “real price change” and provides step-by-step instructions and quick-reference flowcharts to help cost estimators apply inflation and escalation correctly, consistently, and with fewer existential crises (we’ve all been there!). For those wishing to review the handbook in advance of the meeting, it is available under Public Reports on the CAPE website: https://www.cape.osd.mil/
Speaker: Erica Walters
Ms. Erica Walters is an operations research analyst with the Land and Naval Warfare Cost Analysis Division for the Office of the Director, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE), Office of the Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon. In addition to completing cost estimates on ship programs, she is CAPE’s cost policy lead and subject matter expert on inflation and escalation. She is responsible for updating the DoDM 5000.04 (CSDR manual), DoDI 5000.73 (cost analysis guidance and procedures), inflation and escalation handbook, and other CAPE-owned policy and guidance. She has worked at CAPE for three years, and previously worked for six years at the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. She has a master’s degree in security studies from Georgetown University and a bachelor’s degree in biology from George Washington University.
Finding the Story in Your Data
This presentation will cover data visualization and how to find the story within your data. It discusses how people process information and offers tips for creating effective graphics using data visualization principles and techniques to inform decision-making. Different approaches to visualizing data will be discussed including decluttering your graphics, choosing informative visuals, focusing the audience’s attention using pre-attentive attributes, thinking like a designer, and implementing effective storytelling techniques.
Download presentation slides (PDF)
Karen Richey Mislick
Working for 30 years as a cost estimator/auditor, I have authored several best practice guides including the GAO Cost Estimating & Assessment, Schedule Assessment, Technology Readiness Assessment, and Agile Assessment Guides. I used the criteria in these guides to create audit recommendations aimed at improving government program outcomes and over the years provided hundreds of briefings. However, until I started teaching data storytelling, I was clueless about what best practices existed that could enhance my presentations. Knowing these techniques will greatly improve your presentations!
Three OEM Career Journeys
Slides Download
Join ICEAA’s OEM COG Thursday, February 17 at noon eastern to hear three cost professionals tell the stories of how they got from where they started to where they are today at their respective OEMs. Some cost careers have unusual starting points, others twist and turn along the way, and still more end up in unexpected places. No two cost career paths are the same, and we hope OEM employees and cost professionals at all levels will gain insight and inspiration from our speakers’ experiences. During this hour-long webinar, you’ll hear from:
Anna Gannon, CPCM, CFCM
Huntington Ingalls Industries Fleet Support Group
Anna Gannon is a Senior Pricing Manager at Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Fleet Support Group. Anna started with HII as a Pricing Analyst and progressed quickly within the contracts department. She has over a decade of experience in Government Contract Proposals. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Administration, two Professional Government Contract Management certifications, and will receive her MBA and MS in Strategic Management with Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business. In 2020, She received the Women of Color “Technology Rising Star” stem award. Anna has a passion for problem solving and analyzing data. She is a strategic thinker dedicated to constant learning and self-improvement.
Denise Nelson
The Boeing Company
Denise Nelson currently leads the Boeing Defense Systems (BDS) Software Estimating processes and supporting tool set, which includes defining and collecting standard software metrics across BDS programs. Prior to her current position, Denise Nelson was a Systems Engineer specializing in Affordability trades, lifecycle cost estimates and parametric modeling. She has worked multiple programs and platforms supporting various government and space customers. Denise Nelson graduated from California Polytechnic University Pomona with a BS in Statistics and a MS in Pure Mathematics. Denise is the recipient of ICEAA’s 2021 Educator of the Year award.
Ralph Smith
Retired, Lockheed Martin
Ralph Smith is an ICEAA Emeritus Member who served in several leadership positions and retired from Lockheed Martin as a fellow in estimating. Ralph has a passion for math and science and always loved the most challenging cost estimating applications during conceptual design including trade studies and design to cost efforts. Ralph was a longtime member of ICEAA and its predecessor associations, the Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA) and the International Society of Parametric Analysts (ISPA). He has inspired many analysts to follow his example within the company and across the profession, and he looks forward to connecting with many more of you on your professional journeys.
OSD CAPE Overview and Policy Update
Slides Download
OSD CAPE reports directly to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense and serves as an independent source of unbiased analysis and decision support. They provide the Department with timely, insightful, and unbiased analysis on resource allocation and cost estimation problems to deliver the optimum portfolio of military capabilities through efficient and effective use of each taxpayer dollar.
The presentation will provide an overview of OSD CAPE’s functions to develop and provide insight into the costs of acquisition programs that enables responsible budgeting and proactive management decisions so that the Department can control cost and achieve savings. We will also review current policies and guidance related to cost estimation, cost analysis, cost data reporting, inflation and escalation, and operations support.
Speakers:
Ms. Jennifer Bowles is the Director for Land and Naval Warfare Cost Analysis Division, formerly the Operations and Support Cost Analysis Division, for the Office of the Director, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE), Office of the Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon. In this position, she is responsible for the conduct of independent cost estimates (ICEs), cost analyses for land and naval systems, and is the CAPE lead for developing policies and procedures related to cost estimation for the Department and for the reporting and collection of actual cost data and other related information for acquisition programs.
She holds a BS in Mathematical Sciences from Pennsylvania State University; an MS in Operations Research from the Florida Institute of Technology; an MS in National Security and Resource Strategy from the Dwight D. Eisenhower School, with a Diploma in the Senior Acquisition Course; and is Level III certified in both Cost Estimating and Financial Management for Defense Acquisition and DoD Financial Management.
Ms. Erica Walters is an operations research analyst with the Land and Naval Warfare Cost Analysis Division for the Office of the Director, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE), Office of the Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon. In addition to completing cost estimates on ship programs, she is CAPE’s cost policy lead and subject matter expert on inflation and escalation. She is responsible for updating the DoDM 5000.04 (CSDR manual), DoDI 5000.73 (cost analysis guidance and procedures), inflation and escalation handbook, and other CAPE-owned policy and guidance. She has worked at CAPE for two years, and previously worked for six years at the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. She has a master’s degree in security studies from Georgetown University and a bachelor’s degree in biology from George Washington University.
Affordability Benefits of Digital Engineering on the T-7A RED HAWK APT program
Slides Download
Speaker: Brian Beyer
Brian Beyer, a Technical Fellow in Systems Engineering at Boeing, will share his experience with development of the T-7A Advanced Pilot Training (APT) System. He will share how Boeing leveraged Digital Engineering to create the safest, most integrated, most advanced, and most affordable Air Force pilot training system ever! Brian was the Affordability leader for the production representative jet (PRJ) phase (the TMRR development phase) of the program from early conceptual development through the first flight of the aircraft. Brian has worked on a number of development, production, and support/training system programs in his 20+ years at Boeing as an engineering leader. Other notable defense programs include MQ-25, F/A-18 Super Hornet, F-15EX, Future Combat Systems (FCS), Small diameter Bomb (SDB) and JDAM weapons programs. Brian is a certified Six Sigma Black Belt and holds several other certifications in Lean Manufacturing, Continuous Improvement, and problem solving methods. He is passionate about improving quality, productivity, and value to his customers.
Industry Perspectives on Affordability Analysis
Slides Download
Join the OEM COG as we dive into the subject of Affordability Analysis, and how that means a lot of different things to different people. We intend to explore various perspectives, terminology and definitions that will help cost analysis professionals be better prepared to support affordability efforts within their own organizations. We strongly encourage you to continue to reach out and collaborate with your colleagues in small groups to prepare to contribute!
Thursday, February 18
We introduced the group and our mission, and discuss the results of our initial internal conversations on OEM interests. Representatives from the following OEM companies provided their unique perspectives on the challenges facing their organization:
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- BAE Systems
- The Boeing Company
- Lockheed Martin Corporation
- Huntington Ingalls Industries – Newport News Shipbuilding
- Northrop Grumman Corporation
- Raytheon Technologies