2023 Workshop Breakout Sessions

Analytical Methods Track

Design to Cost: What it is and Why You Should Care
Analytical Methods Track (AM01)
Henry Apgar
Karen Mourikas
Lisa Colabella

Design to Cost (DTC) has been around since the 1970s, falling in and out of favor. But what exactly is DTC? And will it help control program or product costs? Googling it yields various definitions, sometimes contradictory. Examples fluctuate from large defense programs to mass-produced commercial components. Implementation differs depending upon company, life-cycle phase, and objectives. This presentation is the culmination of an effort by the SoCal ICEAA Chapter to educate our community on DTC.

Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Methods, Parametrics, Project Controls, DTC

Accuracy, Precision and Uncertainty in Cost Estimates
Analytical Methods Track (AM02)
Timothy P. Anderson

Cost proposals for large government contracts are necessarily very detailed and typically highly precise, expressed down to the nearest dollar. This presentation explores the differences between precision and accuracy in cost proposals in the context of uncertainty and cost growth. Moreover, the presentation is interactive, with thought-provoking questions peppered throughout, providing numerous opportunities for audience participation for improved knowledge and retention.

Keywords: Precision, Accuracy, Uncertainty

Innovative Risk-Driven Contract Pricing Strategy
Analytical Methods Track (AM03)
Brian Flynn
Robert Nehring
Andi Hylton

This paper presents a framework or scoring matrix that quantifies contract risk using a numerical evaluation of the many factors that make or break a program, such as: experience of the contractor, stretch in technology, solidity of requirements, and degree of competitive procurement. The framework, in turn, is made operational by leveraging benchmarks from over 60 U.S. contracts, enabling data-driven selection of contract type, incentives, and share lines for use in evaluating future contract prices.

Keywords: Contracts, Strategy, Pricing Approach, Risk

One Number to Correlate Them All – Efficient Implementation of Correlation
Analytical Methods Track (AM04)
Anh (Anne) Harris
Karen McRitchie
Christian Smart

Correlation is a key consideration in cost and schedule risk analysis, as its exclusion causes significant underestimation of uncertainty. When assigning values in the absence of functional correlation, this can be accomplished by considering every WBS estimate. However, this can be time consuming for a detailed estimate. In this presentation, we discuss an alternative method that uses a single value, which offers significant time savings and discuss its implementation in the SEER model suite.

Keywords: Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Risk, Uncertainty

Incorporating Risk into Analysis of Alternatives Results: A Novel Methodology
Analytical Methods Track (AM05)
Lauren Mayer
Brittany Clayton

Summary not approved for public release.

Alternative Risk Measures for Determining Program Reserves
Analytical Methods Track (AM07)
Louis Fussell

NASA project managers hold cost and schedule reserves equal to a 50% joint confidence level and the managing directorates hold reserves to a 70% confidence level. These joint confidence levels are quantile risk measures. This paper discusses the drawbacks of quantile risk measures and proposes the use of super quantiles for determining project reserves. Several projects are analyzed and a comparison of risk measures is presented.

Keywords: Monte Carlo, Program Management, Risk Management, EVM & Scheduling, Risk, Planning

Using Bayes’ Theorem to Develop CERs – Extending the Gaussian Model
Analytical Methods Track (AM06)
Christian Smart
David Jo

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Bayesian, Bias, Methods, Parametrics, Regression, Statistic

The Space Between Us: A Novel Collaborative Spacecraft Estimating Framework
Analytical Methods Track (AM08)
Alex Wekluk
Benjamin Truskin

Government space acquisitions are renowned for their complexity and can suffer from notable cost and schedule overruns. The space cost community is composed of disparate organizations employing different cost estimating methods, even when the same industry partners are building the spacecraft. This paper leverages a Technomics internally-developed space estimating framework, industry-released Cost Estimating Relationships from multiple agencies, and NRO CAAG external collaboration experience to examine and contrast previously incompatible methods, and improve synchronization.

CER Automation Quest at the NRO
Analytical Methods Track (AM09)
Brian Wells
Omar Akbik
Jan Sterbutzel

Summary not approved for public release.


Data Science Track

Follow the Money in Government Estimates
Data Science Track (DS01)
Geoffrey P. Boals

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Budgeting, Data Collection, DOD/MOD, Government, Variables

“Cracking the Code” : Demystifying Programming Languages for Data Analytics
Data Science Track (DS02)
Kyle Ferris

In recent years, buzzwords such as “Machine Learning” and “Artificial Intelligence” have made their way into the cost community’s vocabulary. While data science concepts such as these certainly advance the cost estimating industry, their significance is lost when analysts find themselves unfamiliar with fundamental programming principles. This presentation aims to demystify and compare commonly used programming languages such as R and Python, with the purpose of helping analysts who wish to develop coding expertise but don’t know where to begin.

Keywords: Data-Driven, IT, Methods, Modeling, Software, Statistics, Programming, Coding, Data Science, Data Analytics, Software Development

Level up your Cost Analysis with Data Science
Data Science Track (DS03)
Sarah Green

Summary not approved for public release.

Web Applications for Cost Analysis Use: R Shiny vs Python Plotly Dash
Data Science Track (DS04)
Eric J. Hagee
Christine K. Clay

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Communication, Data-Driven, R, Python, Shiny, Dash, Data Visualization, Web Application, Tools Comparisons, Dashboards

Text Analysis of Requirements with Machine Learning
Data Science Track (DS05)
Pieter Jansen

When you have hundreds if not thousands of requirements, machine learning can help you out to see the forest for the trees. I present how with machine learning, and open source software “R”, double costing of (software) requirements can be avoided, can be used in evaluating technical proposals and statements of work amongst other.

Keywords: Supervised, Unsupervised, Machine Learning, R

Using Machine Learning to Improve Cost Data Normalization
Data Science Track (DS06)
Bryan Mariscal

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Data-Driven, Methods, Modeling, Machine Learning, Algorithms, Data Normalization, Process Improvement

Integrating Cost, AI, and Novel Data to Address 21st-Century Threats
Data Science Track (DS07)
Isabel Metzger
Ashlyn Spector

Deteriorating infrastructure, climate change, and cyber risks are costly to human life, our economy, and national security. How do we protect our facilities, people, and information from 21st-century threats? In our session, we showcase a rules-based ranking algorithm that optimizes affordability where mitigation may have the greatest return on investment on mission outcomes. We also present a novel AI-based framework that uses cost data, image data, geospatial information, natural disasters, et cetera.

Keywords: Data Collection, Data Science, Decision Analytics, Machine Learning, Government Innovation, Risk Management

Automating the Data Preparation Process using R Programming
Data Science Track (DS08)
Zachary West

Summary not approved for public release.


IT& Cloud Computing Track

Interesting Results from EVAMOSC or “Wow There is a Lot of O&S Data”
IT & Cloud Computing Track (IT01)
Daniel Germony

Summary not approved for public release.

Applying Simple Function Point Analysis to an 804 Rapid Acquisition Program Cost
IT & Cloud Computing Track (IT02)
Bob Hunt
Rainey Southworth
Chad Lucas

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Agile, Acquisition, Software, Cost Estimation

Cloud-Based Machine Learning in the DoD Environment
IT & Cloud Computing Track (IT03)
Conner Lawston
Bryan Eckle

Follow up to the 2022 Presentation “Supercharging Machine Learning with Cloud Computing.” This project has made huge strides in the past year- having made over 5,000 predictions since February, all 100% autonomously and within the DoD ADVANA environment. There have been numerous improvements (like increasing ML accuracy via PCA, & speeding up calculation time with SPARK) and lessons learned as we expanded into production for the Joint Chiefs, MDA, Navy, Marine Corps, and more!

Keywords: Modeling, Machine Learning, Cloud, Robotic Process Automation

Addressing Automated Testing in Your Software Estimate
IT & Cloud Computing Track (IT04)
Arlene F. Minkiewicz

Agile development and DevOps/DevSecOps practices are becoming increasingly common in software development projects in commercial, government and government contractor organizations. Three practices arising are Continuous Integration, Continuous Delivery and Continuous Deployment. Automated testing is clearly an investment, but one that promises to lead to productivity and quality improvements. This paper presents the general concept of automated testing focused on practices highlighted above. The cost impacts of employing automated testing practices will be demonstrated and discussed.

Keywords: Software, Agile Software Development, DevSecOps

Comparing the Cost of Cloud Services: AWS vs Azure
IT & Cloud Computing Track (IT05)
Gunnar Nichols
Patrick Casey
Sergey Kozin

Cloud Services continue to play a growing role in how the internet is used to provide capabilities to users. Amazon Web Services and Azure are the two biggest Cloud Service Providers on the market today. This research investigates cost differences for cloud services comprised of comparable virtual machines for workloads with defined computational requirements. This analysis is utilized to characterize scenarios where cost savings should be considered when supporting a Cloud Service Provider decision.

Keywords: Data-Driven, IT, Software

Shining Rays of Light & Savings on Cloud Portfolios: An Important Advance!
IT & Cloud Computing Track (IT06)
Kenneth Rhodes
Alex Wekluk
RJ Krempasky

Existing cloud cost estimating and pricing tools have at least two significant drawbacks: 1) they require many assumptions, therefore a detailed understanding of current/future architectures and 2) they do not provide insights required to manage costs. Technomics developed a groundbreaking alternative that will revolutionize how cloud costs are estimated and managed. This paper describes our parametric-based toolset, which enables cloud lifecycle costs estimation based on known programmatic design requirements and cost reduction and efficiency analysis.


Modeling & Case Studies Track

Budget Execution and Margin Simulation (BEAMS)
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC01)
Erik Burgess

ODNI works with organizations in the Intelligence Community to submit multibillion-dollar budget requests to Congress, based on cost estimates that are not exact. For an agency portfolio, this study quantifies the impact of budgeting to higher or lower confidence levels. By modeling the interactions among programs and the mechanics of the annual budget closure process, we show that estimates somewhat higher than 50 %tile are the “sweet spot” between minimizing growth and maximizing missions delivered.

Keywords: Budgeting, Space

Foundational Cost Models
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC02)
Paul Broaddus Franklin Jr.

This study will unveil more than forty-five previously unpublished simple and learning-augmented cost estimating relationships for common construction materials and equipment. These relationships and other data allow us to investigate the hypothesis that the error distribution of conventional building components follow a skew exponential power distribution rather than the lognormal one usually applied to defense estimates. We also examine whether backcasting to the intercept can isolate approximate labor cost underlying composite expense data. This paper shares those relationships in the hope of expediting cost estimating from the ground-up.

Keywords: Parametric Estimation, Machine Learning, Construction, Infrastructure, Program Management, Operations Research, Defense

CSI EU (Cost Scene Investigation – European Union)
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC03)
Doug Howarth

In 2000, several Airbus units from European Union member countries launched the Airbus A380. The program was projected to sell 1250 units with a development cost of €9.5 billion but shut down after selling 251 copies, as costs more than doubled. This paper examines its causes and how the entire debacle might have been prevented, as all the information needed to assess its viability existed before it started.

Keywords: Development Costs, Sales, Demand

Trouble With the Curve: Engineering Changes and Manufacturing Learning Curves
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC04)
Brent M. Johnstone

Engineering changes pose a dilemma for estimators: If learning curves assume cost improvement due to repetitive build, what happens when that repetition is interrupted by a change of task? Design changes are common occurrences, but rarely addressed in learning curve literature. This paper addresses how to analyze an engineering change by breaking it into its pieces and outlines techniques to calculate the reversionary impact on the learning curve to derive the estimated cost of change.

Keywords: Labor, Learning Curves, Methods, Modeling, Operations, Manufacturing, Engineering Changes

Developing a Schedule Model From a Cost Modeler’s Perspective
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC05)
Benjamin Kwok
Daniel Newkirk

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, Modeling, Schedule, Databases, Metrics, Django, Python

All in the Hierarchy: Meta-Estimators to Standardize Work Breakdown Structures
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC06)
Maura Anne Lapoff
Patrick Shelton

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has demonstrated how to use Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing to map disparate cost data to a standard, high-level Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). However, mapping data to deeper WBS levels becomes increasingly complex due to the hierarchical relationship between levels, rendering common machine learning models inadequate. Here we demonstrate how to implement a Hierarchical Classification Machine Learning scheme to map multi-level, hierarchical cost data to a common WBS.

Keywords: Data-Driven, Government, Modeling, Hierarchical, Construction, Classification

The Cost of Bureaucracy
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC07)
Zachary Matheson
Jenna Vandervort
Daniel Mulrow

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has separate management methods for capital construction projects, with enhanced requirements for larger projects. Naively, one might expect that enhanced requirements might increase program management costs and possibly impact schedule. However, as the enhanced management requirements are tied to a dollar threshold, comparing costs is not straightforward. In this paper, we share results of a regression analysis that developed separate cost and schedule regressions for each management method and a comparison of the costs by management type.

Keywords: Decision Analysis, Early Cost, Government, Parametrics, Regression, Statistics

Unprecedented – Accurate Estimating in the Hypersonics Era
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC08)
Eric Sick
Christian Smart

Many cutting-edge programs and emergent domains, such as hypersonics, have few direct historical precedents. This presents challenges in estimating the cost of such programs at the system level. A key insight is that many of the components on these systems have been implemented on numerous other historical programs, so one way to successfully tackle this challenge is by estimating at a component-level Work Breakdown Structure. This paper provides comparative examples of accurate estimates for aerospace advanced technology programs, including commercial space and government hypersonics programs

Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Early Cost, Methods

Practical Estimating of Hardware Lifecycle and Total Ownership Costs
Modeling & Case Studies Track (MC09)
F. Gurney Thompson III
Vivian Tang

In recent years, the push for greater efficiency and productivity in Defense spending has yielded an increased focus on affordability analysis. Understanding and estimating Total Ownership Costs (TOC) and especially operation and support phase costs is key in assessing affordability. This paper will focus on the latest advances in modeling hardware operation and support scenarios for both new and ongoing programs, as well as extending this modeling to address the full scope of TOC estimation.


Processes & Best Practices Track

Shortfall Analysis – Creative Approaches to Problem Quantification
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB01)
George Bayer
Brian Carroll

Government acquisitions start with problem identification as a means of solving public sector problems or “shortfalls” and inefficiencies with technical hardware and software solutions. To justify government business cases, analysts are tasked to (1) define the problem, (2) identify impacted stakeholders, and (3) creatively quantify and monetize impacts to operations and services. Using a proven approach, the team demonstrates how to effectively perform shortfall analyses and monetize the largest underlying value to justify business cases.

Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Process Engineering, Regression, Statistics, Business Case, Shortfall Analysis, Critical Thinking, Root Cause Analysis, Cost Avoidance, Monetization

You’ve Invested, Now Sustain it: Insights into the Sustainment Review Process
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB02)
Adam Kidwell
John Liss
Alex Bonich

Congress, in NDAA 2017, established Sustainment Reviews to assess the planning and execution of Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) Product Support strategies. Readiness is a critical aspect of Defense Operations, and rising supply chain costs highlight the fact that effective planning, budgeting, and execution of a program’s Sustainment Strategy is crucial to its long-term success. This paper provides an objective, experience-based perspective of Sustainment Reviews and best practices to ensure successful outcomes.

Keywords: DOD/MOD, Life Cycle, Performance Management, Sustainment, Congress, Policy, Readiness

Educating Future Cost Engineers in the Space Station Design Workshop (SSDW)
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB03)
Fabian Eilingsfeld
Nicolaus Millin

The space sector seeks young cost engineers who can work in a concurrent engineering environment. One means for scouting young talent is the annual Space Station Design Workshop (SSDW) at the University of Stuttgart, Germany. Two competing teams (size: 20) each must design a space station within one week. SSDW’s concurrent design facility (CDF) format offers students a unique opportunity to learn in a hands-on, international, and interdisciplinary environment. The use of cost estimating tools for teaching at SSDW is described. Lessons learned from the 2022 post-workshop survey are presented.

Keywords: Space, Education, Young Talent

From Software CONOPS to ROM Estimate in Six Easy Steps
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB04)
Carol Dekkers
Dan French

Creating software estimates using a Concept of Operations (ConOPS) document is a challenge for software estimators due to the low fidelity of the requirements. This presentation will illustrate how to create a defensible ROM (Rough Order of Magnitude) Estimate using the new IFPUG software functional size measure. Carol and Dan will also explain how to use this size metric to develop a ROM Cost and Schedule by leveraging various software estimating techniques.

Keywords: Space, Education, Young Talent

Approaches to Applying Risk on Burn Rate Projections
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB05)
Richard Lee
Emily Goldhammer
Kate Malcolm

Many estimating processes focus on producing a single point estimate, which includes a level of assumed risk and uncertainty. Calculating additional risk metrics can improve program success through analysis of estimated cost at different confidence levels. Expanding on research completed in the 2022 ICEAA presentation “Alternative EAC Methodologies”, this presentation focuses on applying alternative cost risk uncertainty approaches to burn rate projections by analyzing regression profiles and schedule intervals based on analogous inputs.

NATO Transformation Command: Launching a Cost Estimating Capability
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB06)
Candace Mahala
Ryan Feeks
Michael Thompson

After over 70 years of establishing NATO, the Transformation Command recognized a cost estimating gap in its capabilities. They launched the development of a new cost estimating capability, for the pre-concept and concept stages remaining solution-agnostic at programmatic level. This is the story of how to grow and cultivate cost estimating from program inception, establishing the fundamentals, integrating with other NATO organizations’ cost communities and developing a closed-loop cost track for robust data.

Managing Schedule Risk Expectations During Program Execution
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB07)
Patrick Malone

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Schedule, Risk, Program Management, Analysis

Take the Blue Pill!
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB08)
Javier Provencio
Chris Hutchings
Cassidy Shevlin

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, Infrastructure, Methods, Operations

Accidental Proof of Calculus for Cost Analysts
Processes & Best Practices Track (PB09)
Jack Snyder
Brittany Smith

Ever get derailed chasing your tail checking calculations, only to discover the cross check initiating the train wreck was flawed to begin with? Join us on an unflattering journey that began with a quick integral cross check that snowballed into the perfect proof for why calculus is a requirement for cost analysts. MATLAB, calculator, or by hand were the academic tools of the calculus trade, we’ll also share how we use Excel for integral calculus.


Software & Agile Track

NLP: A New Approach to SFP Estimation
Software & Agile Track (SA01)
David H. Brown

The need for data-driven methods for predicting software size has never been greater. This is especially true for agencies that rely on SME opinion or T-shirt based sizing as the primary method for estimating the size and cost of agile-developed software. This paper offers an alternative method — use of Natural Language Processing to automate the estimation of Simple Function Point counts – that offers two important advantages: 1) consistency across multiple counts and 2) speed.

Keywords: Data-Driven, Early Cost, Software, Agile, SFP, NLP

The Symbiotic Nature of Requirements Quality and Software Cost Estimation
Software & Agile Track (SA02)
Colin Hammond

It is widely recognised that high quality software requirements lead to reliable functional size estimates, what is less apparent is the potential contribution of functional sizing to help assess and improve the quality of requirements. This paper looks at the observations from assessments of software user stories using our NLP (Natural Language Processing) requirements analysis tool, and how this symbiotic relationship is revealed and enhanced with automated analysis tooling.

Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data-Driven, NLP, Quality, Sizing, Function Points, Cost Reduction, Reduce Risk, Reduce Waste

A Novel Approach for Early Phase Agile Software Estimating and Sizing
Software & Agile Track (SA03)
Wilson Rosa
Sara Jardine

This study investigates how well three high-level size measures (Capability Gaps, Capabilities, and Epics) accurately predict total agile development effort and schedule at the earliest acquisition phase. These measures were obtained from early program documents including Mission Needs Statement, Concept of Operations, and Release Roadmap. Analysis of Variance and Goodness-of-Fit were used to introduce six new estimation models based on data from 20 agile projects implemented between 2014 to 2022 in the DHS and DoD.

Keywords: Data-Driven, IT, Parametrics, Regression, Software, Agile Software Development, Cost Estimation, Mission Needs Statement, Analysis of Alternatives, Rough Order Magnitude, Capability Gaps, Capabilities, Epics, Software Acquisition, Software process, Time Estimation

Scheduling Agile-Fall – Best Practices
Software & Agile Track (SA04)
Maxwell Pessel
Ryan Webster

A high-quality schedule can improve a program’s ability to clarify requirements, predict cost, and communicate effectively by creating a common denominator that links complex efforts across a project. Many Agile programs operate using a hybrid waterfall approach making a properly built schedule critical for understanding the relationship between agile development and government requirements. This presentation will demonstrate best practices for schedule construction in an Agile environment and its implications on cost, delivery, and performance.

Tales from the Trenches – Challenges of Data Analytics in a DevSecOps Program
Software & Agile Track (SA05)
Alex Smith

The large databases of information captured in software planning tools within DevSecOps environments contain a wealth of information. However, this data is user-input and not created with data analysis in mind, which results in several challenges when attempting to analyze. This presentation walks through the real-world process that resulted from collecting, cleaning, reviewing, and analyzing over 20,000 observations of agile software data to facilitate DevSecOps planning and road-mapping activities for a program entering the Software Acquisition Pathway.

Keywords: Government, IT, Story Points, DevSecOps, Data Analysis

Cost Estimation for Project Control
Software & Agile Track (SA06)
Ed Spriggs
Amar Zabarah

Project control in software development is a critical responsibility of program managers and contracting officers. Although the job is a difficult one for most analysts, the inability to measure and control what is being created and tested can result in loss of stakeholder confidence or a cancelled project/program. This paper will describe the best new and existing practices for forecasting the amount of software features that can be delivered within a certain timeframe given the fixed parameters of cost, schedule, and development team size.

Keywords: Budgeting, Cost Management, Functional Requirements, Performance Management, Scheduling, Software, Uncertainty

How Efficient are Your Efficiency Levers?
Software & Agile Track (SA07)
Eric van der Vliet

For application service projects an important aspect is making services more efficient by means of efficiency levers like juniorization, test automation, robotics, etc. The challenge is to combine these efficiency improvements and determine the effort and cost impact during the maintenance period. This presentation presents lessons learned with respect to applying efficiency levers in large application service projects and shows an estimation tool that supports a combination of multiple efficiency levers with different impacts and durations and calculates the monthly impact.

Keywords: Budgeting, Data-Driven, Parametrics, Software


Technical Innovations Track

Ticking Time Bomb of Telework: Communication and Time Management
Technical Innovations Track (TI01)
Jennifer Aguirre
Shannon Cardoza
Annie Bagay

Today’s evolving work environment has demonstrated the importance of emphasizing soft skills in the workplace. Employers must seek candidates with high interpersonal abilities in conjunction with technical expertise. Hard skills often dominate in job-related training, while critical foundations like the ability to communicate and manage workload effectively are often overlooked. This presentation will focus on expanding a person’s marketability by discussing techniques to open these communication pipelines and increase productivity despite an ever-growing workload.

Keywords: Communication, Program Management

Data Science’s Expanding Role in Cost Analysis
Technical Innovations Track (TI03)
Kevin McKeel
Daniel Harper

Data Science has taken on an expanded presence in Cost Analysis. E.g., NLP is used to automate functional software sizing in commercial models. Data Science methods and tools such as NLP can be also used to extract data to identify spending trends and agency funding. We will present an overview of modern usages of data science, to include Machine Learning, AI and data visualization. We will also survey cost and budget data sources which are publicly available and ripe for analysis using data science methods.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Data Science, Machine Learning, NLP

Software Estimation Using Functional Size Derived From User Stories
Technical Innovations Track (TI04)
Karen McRitchie
Esteban Sanchez
Alton Ng

Natural language processing and ISO standard functional size metrics offer an opportunity for an improved approach to sizing and estimation directly from user stories. This presentation will offer an overview of how functional size generated by ScopeMaster can be used for directly for estimation in SEER-SEM. This approach uses either Cosmic or Simple Function Points and considers the uncertainty around sized, ambiguous and potentially missing requirements.

Keywords: Agile, Functional Requirements, Story Points, Sizing

Australian Defence Portfolio and Government’s Political Ends
Technical Innovations Track (TI05)
Anh Pham Waddell

Summary not approved for public release.

Software Maintenance and Software Obsolescence: A Tale of Two Cost Drivers
Technical Innovations Track (TI06)
Sanathanan Rajagopal

Software Obsolescence is one of the key issues in the modern warfare technologies especially in the cyber space where vulnerabilities of obsolete software are exploited. Understanding these vulnerabilities, predicting, managing them cost effectively are now key priorities of any key defence contracts. In this original research paper the author looks at the relationship of software maintenance and its key cost drivers with software obsolescence. Author will further explore the appropriate mitigation strategy and resolution approach for managing software obsolescence while providing an insight o

Keywords: Cost Management, Parametrics, Software, Software Maintenance, Software Obsolescence

Wouldn’t It Be Nice to Use All of Your Data Points: An Introduction to NICE
Technical Innovations Track (TI07)
Steven Read

The difficulty of having non-homogeneous data when fitting a CER can be addressed using data imputation. A Non-linear Iterative Constrained Estimator (NICE) is an approach to both data imputation and CER fitting that considers the whole model and uses the WBS relationships to recalibrate systems of equations for a better fit. This presentation will explain what NICE is, how it works, and begin to explore what problems this method can solve.

Keywords: Data-Driven, Methods, Modeling

VEGA: Shining Light on the Battles of Data Collection and Management
Technical Innovations Track (TI08)
Abby Schendt
Omar Akbik
Raymond Vera

Every cost organization battles both the collection and management of cost, schedule, technical, and programmatic data. This paper describes how the Office of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation (CEPE) at NNSA has built and matured this capability since the office’s inception in 2015. This paper will present seven years of lessons-learned that will pay dividends for any cost organization looking to optimize how it collects and manages mission critical data.

Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, Government, Database, Data Storage, Policy, Data Structure, Data


Trending Topics Track

Hilbert’s Problems III: The Post-Pandemic Cost Community
Trending Topics Track (TT01)
Peter Braxton

Upended by the pandemic, the cost community stands at an inflection point. Revolutions in telework and data science open doors to collaboration and innovation. After a decade, we revisit the seminal Hilbert’s Problems paper and reassess Professional Identity, Cost Estimating Techniques, Cost Estimating Implementation, Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis, and Integration with Other Disciplines. We summarize recent progress and issue challenges for future research. We recommend taking advantage of trends in Digital Engineering and Agile and providing meaningful dashboards instead of static briefs.

Keywords: Cost Management, Methods, Program Management

Placing a Value on Employee Well-Being
Trending Topics Track (TT02)
Kevin Buck
Asma Abuzaakouk

MITRE applies Social Return on Investment (SROI) principles to inform government workplace Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility (DEIA) decisions. An Investment Value Management Framework (IVMF) compares DEIA solutions and identifies optimal solutions. The framework includes process guidelines and an SROI model to estimate cost, benefit, uncertainty, and risk. The model translates metrics to benefits, and an early warning system manages lifecycle DEIA investment performance, comparing projected to actual SROI.

Keywords: Inclusion, Equity, SROI, Performance, Investment, Optimization

The Downside to Perfect Digital Engineering: Implications to the Industrial Base
Trending Topics Track (TT03)
Sandy Burney

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Government, Industrial Policy, Vendor Lock, OEM, Digital Engineering, Profits

Modeling Battery Manufacturing Complexity
Trending Topics Track (TT04)
Sara McNeal

Fossil fuels are the primary energy source used to drive our economies, but with limited supplies, the reliance on batteries has increased. Batteries are energy storage devices, and the chemical molecules react and produce voltage differences between positive and negative electrodes. These differences produce current flow in the energy forms to power products. In this study, the emphasis is researching cost and specifications to identify variables that have strong relationships with manufacturing complexity for structure.

Estimating Your Next Rideshare: Urban Aerial Vehicles
Trending Topics Track (TT05)
Esteban Sanchez

We all want to spend more time living and less time traveling. Heavy traffic and petrol prices are making traditional transportation sink into sustainability issues. A big change is around the corner as the world is shifting into a new era of Urban Air Mobility. This paper will share the experiences and lessons learned from the estimation of your future ride: The Urban Helicopter.

Keywords: Budgeting, Cost Management, Functional Requirements, Modeling, Parametrics, Software, Uncertainty, Hardware, Avionics, Urban Aerial Vehicles, Ridesharing

Sustainment Contracts Cost Growth Analysis
Trending Topics Track (TT06)
Candice Schultheis

Summary not approved for public release.

Cost Engineering a MVDC Power & Energy Design for Navy Surface Combatants
Trending Topics Track (TT07)
Richard Shea
Henry Jones
Ann Hawpe
Victor Sorrentino

Since maritime MVDC systems do not exist, a statistically significant cost estimating relationship is not easily determined. The components required for a MVDC system do exist at some scale and technical level of maturity. However, there is nothing in production meeting all the same requirements of a Navy surface combatant ship installation. Therefore, this paper follows an approach to compare the theoretical costs of a MVDC to a MVAC architecture in a US Navy Ship.

Keywords: DOD/MOD, Manufacturing, Operations, Uncertainty

The Economics of Rocket Reusability
Trending Topics Track (TT08)
Ryan Timm

Summary not approved for public release.

Keywords: Learning Curves, Methods, Modeling, Space