Analytical Methods Track
Investigating Causal Effects of Software and Systems Engineering Effort
Analytical Methods (ANA01)
Causal discovery can help identify factors that drive project costs. We applied causal discovery to software and systems engineering cost estimation model calibration datasets to determine the causes of effort. Due to few variables resulting from the standard causal discovery algorithms, we came up with a technique called Weak Signal Analysis to better tease out weaker causes. Finally, we estimate the numerical impact of each such causal relationship, resulting in cost estimating equations.
Keywords: Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Software, Statistics, Causal Inference, Causal Discovery, Systems Engineering
ANA01 – ppt – Alstad – Investigating Causal Effects of Software
Assessing Regression Methods via Monte Carlo Simulations
Analytical Methods (ANA02)
This presentation provides new insights while building on past research into multiplicative-error model regression methods. Prior evaluations have primarily been limited to mathematical arguments or comparisons of sample statistics using a few datasets. Conversely, this effort executes Monte Carlo simulations with thousands of iterations, thus enabling the direct estimation of measures such as true population bias. Furthermore, the capabilities/limitations of each method are explored by simulating different model forms, sample sizes, error distributions, and variances.
Keywords: R, Python, code snippets, nonlinear least squares, constrained optimization, maximum likelihood estimation, parametrics, accuracy, precision, convergence, correlation, LOLS, PING, MRLN, GRMLN, MLE, ZMPE, MPE-ZPB, MUPE, IRLS, Levenberg Marquardt, COBYLA, GRG Nonlinear
ANA02 – ppt – Schiavoni – Assessing Regression Methods
The Missing Link: An Evolution of Portfolio Natural Selection
Analytical Methods (ANA03)
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” –Charles Darwin. This research presents a conceptual framework and methodology for solving the missing link between learning curve estimates, prediction intervals, and S-curves and generating analytically-based affordable cost constraints to naturally select trade space in a portfolio. This holistic approach expands the evolution of the S-curve.
Keywords: Cost Management, Data-Driven, Learning Curves, Methods, Statistics
ANA03 – ppt – Dodsworth – The Missing Link
ANA03 – Paper – Dodsworth – The Missing Link
Reducing Lifecycle Cost Through Aircraft Modernization
Analytical Methods (ANA04)
The Department of the Navy is planning to upgrade one of the oldest fighter jets in the inventory. To support a milestone decision, an independent Government cost estimate was developed from an engineering build up including over 1,500 individual material procurement line items. Additionally, dozens of past programs were analyzed to provide parametric inputs to the cost model. The detailed data, methodology, and risk adjusted phased results will be presented. Additionally, certain metrics will be compared to past upgrade programs to determine if there are commonalities across platforms.
Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, Government, Methods, Modeling, Risk
ANA04 – ppt – Goucher – Reducing Lifecycle Cost
Adding Cost Credibility with SRL and MBSE Advanced Tools
Analytical Methods (ANA05)
When space based system development programs are less than 15% spent of estimated costs, traditionally almost 80% of design costs are committed! Furthermore, programs with less than the recommended GAO knowledge at program start will likely have higher risk and unexpected cost/schedule growth. Using advanced tools like System Readiness Level (SRL) and Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) methods we show how to identify vulnerabilities early in the development life cycle to mitigate these risks.
Keywords: Budgeting, Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Early Cost, Methods, Software, Space
ANA05 – ppt – Malone – Adding Cost Credibility
SatSim: Estimating Satellite Costs via Simulation
Analytical Methods (ANA06)
Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) are the standard for traditional cost estimators in estimating satellite designs. As new satellites and architectures are proposed, traditional CERs become less defensible as the design uniqueness increases. In order to better estimate future systems, the Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) cost research team developed a simulation-based approach to estimate satellite costs with equivalent or better accuracy than traditional CERs.
Keywords: Data-Driven, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Space, Cost Estimating, Python, Cost Model
ANA06 – ppt – Newkirk – SatSim Estimating Satellite Costs
Foundation of Structured Architecture, System & Cost Modeling
Analytical Methods (ANA07)
Modern software packages can perform complex physics based simulations and alone typically do not consider cost as an input variable while other packages specialize in determining cost. This paper begins the development of a structured System Engineering approach to System design and defines a standardized modular diagram for a RADAR System applied to military applications in the aerospace industry. It will be demonstrated that a system can be defined in standard terms, modeled with modular blocks and be costed by those same modular blocks.
Keywords: Keywords not provided.
ANA07 – ppt – Polidi – Foundation of Structured Architecture
ANA07 – Paper – Polidi – Foundation of Structured Architecture
Beyond the Matrix – The Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Imperative
Analytical Methods (ANA08)
The first step in risk management is gaining an appreciation for risk and uncertainty. However, despite a long history of cost and schedule growth in all types of projects, we tend to focus on averages rather than recognize extremes. Project management is blind to risk. The fixation on averages leads to an underestimation of risk. The use of qualitative methods, including risk matrices, is prevalent, but should be analyzed with rigorous quantitative methods.
Cyber Security & Cloud Computing Track
Improved CERs to Estimate Commercial IaaS Costs for Federal IT Systems
Cyber Security & Cloud Computing (CYC01)
Previous research established vendor agnostic estimating methods for the following Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) costs: virtual machine and storage data. New data has led to price updates to the dataset resulting in over 27,000+ world-wide data points. This includes publicly available government data. The statistical analytic approach provides validated vendor agnostic models. The analysis was conducted and verified by randomly separating the samples of data into training and test sets.
Keywords: Data-Driven, Government, IT, Cloud
CYC01 – ppt – Gbelee – Developing CERs to Estimate Commercial
Planning a Cloud Migration Effort: Cost Estimating Considerations
Cyber Security & Cloud Computing (CYC02)
Cloud First vs. Cloud Smart? Private Cloud vs. Public Cloud? Multi-Cloud vs. Hybrid Cloud? With the growing prevalence of cloud solutions and strategies across the Federal Government, developing a defensible cost estimate for the migration of legacy data to cloud environments becomes increasingly complex. Responding to these challenges, this presentation will demystify the fundamentals of cloud computing, and establish important cost estimating considerations when defining the purpose and scope of a cloud migration effort.
Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Functional Requirements, Government, Infrastructure, IT, Life Cycle, Program Management, Software, Cloud Computing, Cloud Migration, Data Analytics
CYC02 – ppt – Ferris – Planning a Cloud Migration Effort
Cybersecurity Cost Issues Facing Today’s Cost Analyst
Cyber Security & Cloud Computing (CYC03)
There are three general approaches to coat analysis: Botton-up (engineering build up), Economic/Cost Benefit Analysis, and Top-down (parametric). Today Cyber cost analysis is principally done by Botton-up (engineering build up) and/or Economic/Cost Benefit Analysis. This paper will address the advantages and disadvantages of these two approaches. In addition, this oaper will propose a new parametric approach to cyber security cost analysis based on cyber “actors” and business sector.
Keywords: Life Cycle, Modeling, Program Management, Cybersecurity
CYC03 – ppt – Hunt – Cybersecurity Cost Issues Facing Today’s
Estimating Cloud Infrastructure: Requirements, Methodologies, and Uncertainty
Cyber Security & Cloud Computing (CYC04)
The DoD is fully committed to the cloud – but where do we start? We’ll explore multiple existing models available for estimating cloud infrastructure including those created by NRO CAAG and PRICE Systems, and data sheets available directly through Amazon. We’ll discuss technical baseline depth needed and uncertainty considerations for each scenario while exploring economies of scale and pricing differences between security classifications for Government systems and providing ready-to-use factors and reference points for multiple cloud scenarios.
Machine Learning & Data Science Track
Comprehending Chaos: Leveraging Text to Improve Analysis
Machine Learning & Data Science (MLD01)
Data has become the world’s most valuable industrial commodity. The defense industry is no stranger to this reality. The quantitative application of unconventional data sources, such as text, can fill gaps that exist in traditional analysis, and reduce reliance on opinion based inputs that often require significant uncertainty adjustments. This paper will explore natural language processing (NLP) for classification and clustering in cost analysis and how the authors have applied it in practice.
Keywords: Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, Methods, Modeling, Statistics, Machine Learning, Natural Language Processing
MLD01 – ppt – Akbik – Comprehending Chaos
MLD01 – Paper – Akbik – Comprehending Chaos
The Algorithm of 10,000 Variables
Machine Learning & Data Science (MLD02)
Machine learning opens the door for software cost and schedule estimation for previously unviable scenarios in traditional frameworks. A reliable software estimation requires several intricate factors and often the data is unattainable or incomplete. By training several machine learning algorithms on actual data from an issue tracking system this case study achieved a more reliable model. Factors like issue description, individuals assigned, and issue events are shown to be important features in modeling development work.
Keywords: Bayesian, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Modeling, Software, Statistics, Variables
MLD02 – ppt – Anderson – The Algorithm of 10,000 Variables
Innovative Techniques for Analyzing Incomplete Data to Improve Cost Estimates
Machine Learning & Data Science (MLD03)
Cost estimators are often presented with incomplete data sets from which they must develop business case solutions. Understanding, interpreting, and improving the data integrity are critical factors for cost estimate accuracy. In this use case, the cost estimators analyze and interpret incomplete and subjective data sets, forecast spares depletion, and estimate obsolescence. Using innovative data mining and text analysis techniques, the estimators demonstrate how improved data can result in better cost estimates and business cases.
Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, Life Cycle, Obsolescence, Forecasting, Data analysis
MLD03 – ppt – Bayer – Innovative Techniques for Analyzing
MLD03 – Paper – Bayer – Innovative Techniques for Analyzing
Applying Natural Language Processing Techniques to Categorize Cost Estimation Data
Machine Learning & Data Science (MLD04)
In cost estimation, datasets used for analysis can include text data that needs to be normalized to common terminologies, such as component categorizations. Natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning (ML) could potentially be used to solve this problem. This paper will define terminology and common techniques for both NLP and ML. It will also include a case study using a hardware dataset and NLP techniques using Python.
Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, Methods, Machine Learning
MLD04 – ppt – Cuiule – Applying Natural Language Processing Techniques
MLD04 – Paper – Cuiule – Applying Natural Language Processing Techniques
Machine Learning and Parametrics for Software Joint Confidence Level Analysis
Machine Learning & Data Science (MLD05)
Christian B. Smart
Joint Confidence Level analysis has proven to be very successful for NASA. It is typically conducted using bottom-up resource-loaded schedules. However, the use of high-level parametrics and machine learning has been successfully used by one of the authors. This approach has some advantages over the more detailed method. In this paper, we discuss the approach and provide an example of the application of machine learning and parametric analysis to software programs.
Keywords: IT, Parametrics, Risk, Scheduling, Statistics, Uncertainty
MLD05 – ppt – Jardine – Machine Learning and Parametrics
MLD05 – Paper – Jardine – Machine Learning and Parametrics
Data With A Purpose: Technical Data Initiative
Machine Learning & Data Science (MLD06)
Technical characteristics are known to influence cost and as such are integral to cost estimating methods. Cost-driver data is an enduring cost community need yet is often an afterthought to cost data collection. This presentation is an overview of CADE’s Technical Data Report (TDR) to systemically capture this must-needed information as part of the CSDR process. Also a sample Power BI case will illustrate the powerful analysis empowered by integrating TDR data with FlexFile cost data.
Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, Variables
MLD06 – ppt – McDowell – Data With A Purpose
USCM11 – an Evolution of Techniques Used to Build Cost Models
Machine Learning & Data Science (MLD07)
The development of the 11th version of USCM incorporates many innovative processes that paves the way for how future cost estimating models could be developed. This presentation will showcase analysis, processes, and techniques such as automating the generation of CERs, using machine learning techniques to classify CERs as either primary or secondary methods, using an analytics approach to evaluate your model, and more.
Keywords: Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, Methods, Modeling, Regression, Space, Statistics, CERs, automation, machine learning, visualization, analytics, USCM, SMC
MLD07 – ppt – Kwok – USCM11 – an Evolution of Techniques
Dealing with Missing Data – The Art and Science of Imputation
Machine Learning & Data Science (MLD08)
Christian B. Smart
Missing data is a common occurrence when collecting and analyzing data. Even when a data set includes many data points, many variables of interest will have omitted values. The most common way to deal with this situation is to exclude the data points from analysis. However, this is not ideal. We discuss a better way to deal with this issue, which is the use of imputation, a statistically rigorous method for filling in the holes.
Keywords: Data-Driven, Modeling
MLD08 – ppt – Roye – Dealing with Missing Data
MLD08 – Paper – Roye – Dealing with Missing Data
Operations & Support Analysis Track
Continuous Enhancements: An Alternative to Maintenance
Operations & Support Analysis (OSA01)
With a rapidly evolving threat and the enemy’s ability to adapt and counter our weapons and technology, gone are the days of designing, producing, and maintaining a system for 20-30 years. Modern systems need the ability to adapt and update rapidly to include the latest technology. This new paradigm changes the traditional Operations & Support methodologies and estimating techniques employed by the cost analyst. We will look at the impacts to maintenance costs and the traditional funding profile.
Keywords: Budgeting, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Modeling, Statistics
OSA01 – ppt – Bowers – Continuous Enhancements
Using Analytics to Aid in Performance Based Logistics Decision Making Processes
Operations & Support Analysis (OSA02)
As OEMs push towards high dollar value, long-term Performance Based Logistics (PBL) contracts, decisions surrounding these types of contracts should be driven by an analytical process. PBL contracts can be worth billions of dollars and are sold as ways to improve system performance while reducing costs. Modeling and simulation can be used to evaluate the performance and cost impacts of the PBL-suggested improvements and assist decisions makers select an appropriate way forward.
Keywords: Budgeting, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, DOD/MOD, Government, Modeling, Performance Management
OSA02 – ppt – Brown – Using Analytics to Aid in Performance
Army Software Sustainment: Righting Our Cost Estimating Assumptions
Operations & Support Analysis (OSA03)
A challenge in estimating software Total Ownership Costs at the beginning of a software acquisition is estimating the cost of software after development. Rules-of-thumb are often used to estimate the annual change in the software during the sustainment lifecycle. This session will present data analysis on software sustainment profiles that show a rise and fall in the number of changes over long periods of time contrary to the practice of using a constant annual change.
Keywords: Data-Driven, Life Cycle, Modeling, Software, Sustainment
OSA03 – ppt – Jones – Army Software Sustainment
OSA03 – paper – Jones – Army Software Sustainment
Practical Estimating of Hardware Lifecycle Maintenance and Obsolescence Mitigation Strategies
Operations & Support Analysis (OSA04)
There are many strategies that can be employed to maintain a hardware system, and many phenomena that have been observed in systems with long lifespans which can greatly affect cost and reliability. This paper will present our research approach and will examine case studies to compare various maintenance strategies, approaches to mitigating technology obsolescence issues, modeling of non-constant failure rates, effects of mid-life upgrades, and more.
Keywords: Maintenance, Technology Obsolescence, Modeling, Tools, Analysis Case Studies
Processes & Best Practices Track
Business Transformation of Life Cycle Cost Estimating at PEO STRI / Processes
Processes & Best Practices (PBP01)
The U.S. Army’s PEO STRI used the tenets of Better Buying Power and Continuous Process Improvement (CPI) to improve life cycle cost estimating, focusing on the processes and applications that produce credible data-driven, comprehensive, and reliable cost estimates. Implementation resulted in earlier and faster production of estimates; increased confidence in program estimates; and improved organizational ability to defend estimates. This presentation describes the challenges, processes, and internal controls associated with success of PEO STRI initiatives.
Keywords: Keywords not provided.
PBP01 – ppt – Golden – Business Transformation of Life Cycle
Addressing Challenges in Costing Unique Large Scientific Facilities
Processes & Best Practices (PBP02)
The costing of large scientific facilities poses many challenges to cost estimators as these facilities are typically uniquely designed for specific types of research. However, when the facilities and hardware are examined at a lower level, there may be similar components which can be consulted to evaluate a new proposed system. Aerospace will share their experience in costing unique facilities including the importance of historical data, cost scaling, sensitivity analysis, and other evaluation techniques.
Keywords: Cost Management, Government, Methods
PBP02 – ppt – Hayhurst – Addressing Challenges in Costing
Effective Affordability Engineering Teams – Top 5 Things You Need to Know
Processes & Best Practices (PBP03)
Much is written on Affordability Analysis, but what does it take to implement an effective Affordability Engineering team within a DOD contractor? This presentation explores challenges / pitfalls facing establishing an effective team and the top five things needed to overcome them. Also discussed are the methodologies, technologies and best practices required to fully explore the cost / performance trade space. A Model Based Cost Engineering case study demonstrating Affordability Analysis principles will also be presented.
Keywords: Cost Management, Methods, Program Management
PBP03 – ppt – Jasnoff – Effective Affordability Engineering Teams
Cybersecurity Cost Estimating Factors for Business IT Systems
Processes & Best Practices (PBP04)
PRICE® Systems and MITRE analysts developed an initial set of cybersecurity cost estimating factors for the 2020 ICEAA Workshop. Peer feedback on the factors identified several issues requiring additional research to resolve. This a paper presents the follow-on data updates and analysis to address these issues, and to update the factors accordingly. The results can be applied to estimate costs for cybersecurity specific activities supporting development and operations of IT systems for the federal government.
Keywords: Cost Management, Data-Driven, Variables, Cybersecurity
PBP04 – ppt – Mabe – Cybersecurity Cost Estimating Factors
Where To Miss, What To Give Up
Processes & Best Practices (PBP05)
Many projects miss some or all of their targets and specifications. Unrealistic requirements force designs made with skyrocketing costs. To produce a successful product, one must know which conditions to keep and which to drop. Producers should discover what the market wants, doesn’t have, and can afford. In-depth market analysis reveals configurations more likely to fall within cost limits while satisfying customer requirements.
Keywords: Optimization, Hypernomics
PBP05 – ppt – Howarth – Where To Miss, What To Give Up
The Art of the Interview
Processes & Best Practices (PBP06)
Cost estimation is often called an art and a science. From an art perspective, the estimator must be able to effectively communicate with people to elicit information and deliver actionable intelligence. In this presentation, we will discuss interview techniques and other “soft skills” that enable the estimator to effectively obtain useful information, build rapport and collaborate with a number of different audiences, to include subject matter experts, engineers, program managers, customers, and stakeholders.
PBP06 – ppt – Bauer – The Art of the Interview
Using Integrated Program Management (IPM) Principles Effectively
Processes & Best Practices (PBP07)
Integrated Program Management(IPM) is not just managing the Technical aspects for the program and looking to achieve the program goals. Besides the technical piece, there is an entire team effort, which includes Cost Estimates and Analysis, Scheduling, and Earned Value Management, which work together to present a total picture of the program, based on separate data. In the past there has been a tendency to “silo” these disciplines and not identify or use the them in an integrated way. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how the use of IPM Principles.
Keywords: Performance Management, Program Management, Project Controls
PBP07 – ppt – ThompsonMike – Using Integrated Program Management
PBP07 – Paper – ThompsonMike – Using Integrated Program Management
Forecasting of Agile deliveries
Processes & Best Practices (PBP08)
Eric van der Vliet
Agile is the most common delivery approach for software projects. Single teams are able to control their delivery, more challenging is the delivery of multiple teams or multiple release trains. How can management keep control in such a situation? How can management determine what value has been delivered? This presentation is about a Power BI based solution that consolidates the information from different teams and release trains and consolidates this information in trends for management to take decisions with respect to performance, quality and value.
Keywords: Agile, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, Performance Management, Program Management, Project Controls, Software, Statistics
PBP08 – ppt – van der Vliet – Forecasting of Agile deliveries
Soft Skills & Communication Track
Does Cost Team Leadership Matter
Soft Skills & Communication (SSC01)
An anonymous survey of 150+ cost analysts unanimously reported that a cost-team lead’s effectiveness ultimately impacts the team’s products. However, there has been minimal guidance as to what defines good leadership. Using the ten behaviors identified by Google’s Project Oxygen, this paper seeks to understand what skills are necessary for successful cost leadership. The findings lead to a simple conclusion that mirrors that of Project Oxygen: improving our soft skills will improve cost leader efficacy.
Keywords: Communication, Program Management, soft skills
SSC01 – ppt – Snyder – Does Cost Team Leadership Matter
SSC01 – Paper – Snyder – Does Cost Team Leadership Matter
Faster…Better…Cheaper…Improving Counting Productivity and Delivery
Soft Skills & Communication (SSC02)
Do you want to get the best ROI from your function point team? From a business perspective, there are five core goals for any program: 1-Effectively manage workflow; 2-Proactively manage end user expectations; 3-Accurately plan, budget and forecast deliveries; 4-Accurately estimate deliverables; and 5-Show value to the organization. A function point team should also strive for these goals. Come learn best practices, tips and techniques for building a valuable counting support unit for your organization.
Keywords: EVMFunction Points, Process Engineering
SSC02 – ppt – Dennis – Faster…Better…Cheaper…
Estimator development and process automation
Soft Skills & Communication (SSC03)
As technology, software, and tools continue to automate, it becomes increasingly challenging to develop personnel. The design and modeling of automated processes may leverage artificial intelligence, but the cost estimator will have to continue to navigate a murky gray environment that requires critical thinking, intellectual curiosity, and analytical aptitude. As we automate estimating activities and continue to develop future estimators, how do we design to capture process velocity without sacrificing insight and credibility?
Keywords: People Development
SSC03 – ppt – Glogoza – Estimator development and process automation
Finding the Story in Your Data
Soft Skills & Communication (SSC04)
Karen Richey Mislick
This presentation will cover data visualization and how to find the story within your data. It discusses how people process information and offers tips for creating effective graphics using data visualization principles and techniques to inform decision-making. Different approaches to visualizing data will be discussed including decluttering your graphics, choosing informative visuals, focusing the audience’s attention using pre-attentive attributes, thinking like a designer, and implementing effective storytelling techniques.
Keywords: Communication, Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, Performance Management, Program Management, Project Controls, data visualization, storytelling with data, pre-attentive attributes, Gestalt principles
Software & Agile Track
Icebergs or Shifting Sands – What’s the Key to Software Estimation?
Software & Agile (SWA01)
ICEAA is a world leader when it comes to estimating tangible programs. With CEBoK, successful estimation of large and small scale programs involving hardware, satellites, buildings, equipment and networks is not only possible, it’s become a science. Now, what happens when you bring software-intensive systems into the mix? It’s said that estimating software development is like estimating an iceberg, and with the new agile development, maybe even like shifting desert sands. What do you think? Can we create successful software estimates with so much uncertainty? Let’s explore the topic.
Keywords: Agile, Software, Story Points, SCEBoK
SWA01 – ppt – Dekkers – Icebergs or Shifting Sands
Build It and They Will Come: Keys to Developing a Successful Software Metrics Program
Software & Agile (SWA02)
Despite the pervasiveness of software development in all areas of industry today, few organizations develop and implement effective software measurement programs to manage their software development projects and leverage information necessary to make business decisions. This presentation discusses reasons why this is, addresses myths and misconceptions regarding software metrics programs, and how to develop an effective program, as well as which software metrics to develop to provide the greatest value.
Keywords: Cost Management, Data Collection, Program Management, Software, Software Sizing. Software Metrics, GQM
SWA02 – ppt – French – Measure It and They Will Come
Get to the Point. What’s the Deal with Different Function Points Methodologies?
Software & Agile (SWA03)
Since the development of IFPUG Function Points (FPs), many variants have emerged to simplify software sizing and improve cost estimation. Which of these sizing techniques should one use? To understand differences among methods, we compare IFPUG FPs, COSMIC FPs, and Simple FPs for effort estimation on University of Southern California (USC)’s dataset of Unified Code Count (UCC) enhancements. Additionally, we investigate automated tools to understand the correlation between Objective FPs and the other FPs methods.
Keywords: Agile, Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, Early Cost, Software, Function Points, Software Sizing, Software Cost Estimation, Software Effort Estimation
SWA03 – ppt – Hira – Get to the Point
SWA03 – Paper – Hira – Get to the Point
Air Force: Standing Up Agile Under A Waterfall
Software & Agile (SWA04)
On November 2018 the “Agile Development Manifesto” was released to parts of the Air Force to provide summary guidance to rapidly deliver software products under Agile Development. Multiple cost teams have worked closely throughout the divisions the past few years to better transition how divisions will work to incorporate Agile practices and useful metrics for software development through the release increments. This presentation will provide a journey through the usefulness of our current Agile metrics, how they will be improved and how we have made use of them throughout the DoD.
Keywords: Agile, Data-Driven
SWA04 – ppt – Michelson – AF Standing Up Agile
Cyber Mission Platform (CMP) Program: Analyzing the Full Suite of Agile Metrics
Software & Agile (SWA05)
Guidance, policies and task force recommendations related to agile software development best practices for DoD continue to surface on a daily basis. The DSB, DIB, GAO and OUSD A&S have all weighed in during the last two years. The OUSD A&S “Agile Metrics Guide” provides a concise discussion of metrics that cost analysts and PMs supporting agile programs should consider. This presentation will discuss the AF Cyber Mission Platform program’s agile transformation, approach to estimation, and provide techniques and visualizations for analyzing the key metrics discussed in the OUSD A&S guide.
Keywords: Agile, IT, Program Management, Software, DevSecOps
SWA05 – ppt – Smith – CMP – Analyzing the Full Suite of Agile Metrics
Lessons Learned from Software Maintenance Datasets
Software & Agile (SWA06)
Effort applied to the maintenance of software applications is thought to be between 65% to 85% of the total ownership costs of the application. Yet there are significantly fewer studies focused on maintenance as compared to development, especially based on public domain datasets. This paper presents results from a study focused on maintenance effort data from the ISBSG’s Maintenance and Support (ISBSG M&S) database along with data from other sources.
Keywords: Data-Driven, Life Cycle, Software
SWA06 – ppt – Minkiewicz – Lessons Learned from Software Sustainment Datasets
SWA06 – Paper – Minkiewicz – Lessons Learned from Software Sustainment Datasets
Secure Software Development Levels and Costs
Software & Agile (SWA07)
Barry William Boehm
While the growing field of Software Security provides solutions to address security vulnerabilities, financial issues are still a barrier to their introduction in projects. Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of security practices requires understanding the impact of increasing degrees of security on the development effort. This session will present a rating scale for establishing levels of secure software development, along with effort estimates provided by experts, and the steps envisioned to propose a security cost model.
Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Early Cost, Modeling, Software, Software Security, Cybersecurity
SWA07 – ppt – Venson – Secure Software Development Levels and Costs
Grandma’s Secret Hotdish Recipe for SW Planning: SAFe and Analytics
Software & Agile (SWA08)
In today’s environment, programs want to develop and deliver quickly, but struggle to manage to cost and schedule baselines. Changes in scope, staffing and process require non-standard analysis of data amidst constant change. The authors employed innovative approaches, leveraging function point analysis and machine learning tools, to generate estimates and metrics to drive business outcomes. This business case explores the impacts of program ownership transition, conversion of software development methodology, and modified scope and requirements management.
Keywords: Keywords not provided.
SWA08 – ppt – Walker – Grandma’s Secret Hotdish Recipe for SW Planning
Technical Management Track
How Green Was My Labor: The Cost Impacts of Manufacturing Personnel Changes
Technical Management (TCM01)
Estimators are frequently confronted with manpower increases or decreases and asked to calculate shop performance impacts. However, existing learning curve literature offers little guidance how to do so. This paper identifies issues associated with both new hires (so-called “green labor) and workforce reductions and offers an analytical format. Based on a study of a large workforce expansion on a mature aircraft program, a model to analyze future manpower changes is presented as well as several example cases.
Keywords: Data-Driven, Labor, Learning Curves, Manufacturing, Methods, Modeling
TCM01 – ppt – Johnstone – How Green Was My Labor
TCM01 – Paper – Johnstone – How Green Was My Labor
A Perspective on Cost and Schedule Impacts of Non-Technical Project Management
Technical Management (TCM02)
Leone Z. Young
Project and program management have distinct definitions, but the interplay between technical and non-technical roles within these fields has limited research. This observational study evaluates non-technical project management and its impact on the cost and schedule of major nuclear weapon modernization programs by utilizing historic data to comprehend these emerging phenomena. The study results yield multiple observations and recommendations that will assist senior leadership in their review and decision-making regarding future acquisitions.
Keywords: Budgeting, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Decision Analysis, DOD/MOD, Early Cost, Government, IPM, Life Cycle, Methods, Program Management, Project Controls, Technical, Non-Technical, Project Management
TCM02 – ppt – Josserand – A Perspective on Cost and Schedule
Lessons Learned from Implementing Global Project Control
Technical Management (TCM04)
This paper examines the challenges for organisations to initiate and maintain excellence in Project Controls working with the multi-disciplinary fields of scheduling, cost estimating, risk management, EVM, reporting and monitoring. With more than fifty global stakeholder and 150+ deliverables we will explore the highs and lows of a Project Controls change programme and the lessons learned.
Keywords: Cost Management, International, Methods, Performance Management, Project Controls, Risk, Scheduling
TCM04 – ppt – Shermon – Lessons learned from implementing global Project Control
TCM04 – Paper – Shermon – Lessons learned from implementing global Project Control