International Training Symposium Session Summaries Choose a session description by title:NASA Project Cost Estimating Capability: New Analyses for Spacecraft EstimatingOSCAM – US Navy’s Operating and Support Cost Estimating ToolMaster of Cost Estimating & Analysis BriefNATO Agency Transformation: Creating a Centralized Cost Estimating CapabilityNASA’s X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model V2.0Cost Estimate Credibility from a Government PerspectiveThe Value of R&D – a Real Options Analysis ApproachWhat Does A Mature Cost Engineering Organisation Look Like?Using Public Data for Validation and Winning BidsMaking the Most of Open Systems ArchitecturesIs it Worth It? The Economics of Reusable Space TransportationThe 10+/-2 Factors for Estimate SuccessThe Signal and the Noise in Cost EstimatingFacilities Cost Estimates Drivers in the Oil and Gas Field DevelopmentSuccessful Cost Estimating with T1-EquivalentsCosting Aircraft Availability and 50-Shades of Grey WaterDevelopment of an Additive Manufacturing Cost ModelAutomated Data CollectionOuting the OutliersThe Way From a Parametric Estimate to a CAD-Driven CalcualtionA Parametric Model for the Cost Per Flight HourShould You Care About How Good An Estimation Process?CER Issues And SolutionsInherent Risk in Spreadsheets (IRiS)Satellite Mass GrowthQuickCost 6.0Hubble Space Telescope and Its Color PhotographsHalfway to AnywhereThe SSCAG LegacyCloud Solutions – Infrastructure, Platform or SoftwareMeasurement of Software Size: Contributions of COSMIC to Estimation ImprovementsThe Monitoring and Early Warning Indicators for a Software ProjectSoftware Estimating Model Using IFPUG Standard Sizing MethodsIntroduction to Software Obsolescence Cost Analysis FrameworkApplying Earned Value to Agile Development ProgramsCost Estimating TechniquesData CollectionInflation & Learning CurvesData AnalysisParametric & Regression AnalysisCost/Schedule Risk AnalysisProbability & StatisticsSoftware Cost EstimatingCost/Earned Value ManagementQinetiq: CBe the first to see FACET within the TruePlanning FrameworkPRICE: TruePlanning 2016 UpdatePRICE: PRICE Systems Integrated Cost Management PlatformPalisade: Making Better Decisions With Monte Carlo Simulation: @RISK and Understanding the FutureGalorath: CAD to Cost with SEER and CATIA v5Galorath: An Introduction to SEER for Systems EngineeringGalorath: SEER – What’s new and what’s coming in SEER Choose a session description by code:GP03GP05GP06GP07GP08GP09MG01MG02MG03MG04MG05MG06MM01MM02MM03MM04MM05MM06RA02RA03RA04RA05RA06RA07SS01SS02SS03SS04SS06SW01SW02SW03SW04SW05SW06TRN01TRN02TRN03TRN04TRN05TRN06TRN07TRN08TRN09SPON01SPON02SPON03SPON04SPON05SPON06SPON07 Browse by Track:Government Processes TrackManagement TrackModels & Methods TrackRisk Analysis TrackSpace Systems TrackSoftware TrackCEBoK Training TrackSponsor Showcase Track Government Perspectives Track NASA Project Cost Estimating Capability: New Analyses for Spacecraft Estimating (GP03) Brian Alford Frank A. (Andy) Prince Government Perspectives Track The NASA Project Cost Estimating Capability (PCEC) is a free, publicly-available parametric tool for estimating the cost of spacecraft and transportation systems for scientific and human exploration of our solar system and beyond. In development since late 2013, PCEC replaces the NASA / Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM). This presentation will discuss the new overall philosophy and data analysis underlying PCEC, the challenges encountered during development, and provide a high-level overview of the Keywords: Data-Driven, Microsoft Excel, Modeling, Parametrics, Space Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: NASA Project Cost Estimating Capability: New Analyses for Spacecraft Estimating (GP03) OSCAM – US Navy’s Operating and Support Cost Estimating Tool (GP05) Stephen Curram Government Perspectives Track OSCAM is a simulation based tool for operating and support cost estimating that has been used by the US Navy for 20 years. It plays an important role in submissions for US DoD procurement milestones. An overview and brief history of OSCAM will be given, with examples of equipment programmes that have used OSCAM. It will conclude with lessons learned, including insights on the type of data required for operating and support cost estimating. Keywords: Data Collection, DOD/MOD, Life Cycle, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Operations, Software, Uncertainty Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA, SCAF Presentation: OSCAM – US Navy’s Operating and Support Cost Estimating Tool (GP05) Master of Cost Estimating & Analysis Brief (GP06) Greg Mislick Government Perspectives Track Greg Mislick will provide an update on the all-distance learning Master’s Degree and/or Certificate Program in Cost Estimating and Analysis (MCEA / CCEA) offered at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). Entering its sixth year, the MCEA program has proven to be a success for both the students who take the program and the DoD Services and other US Government Executive Agencies in which the students work. Expert cost estimates are key underpinnings for critical government processes dependent on credible and reasonable cost estimates, from budgeting to cost-benefit and financial analyses. Presentation: Master of Cost Estimating & Analysis Brief (GP06) NATO Agency Transformation: Creating a Centralized Cost Estimating Capability (GP07) Candace Mahala Government Perspectives Track A new NATO Agency is born, transforming multiple agencies into one, changing culture, and implementing a centralized robust cost estimating capability. This is the journey of how to grow and cultivate cost estimating from inception, integrating into projects as a value added asset, maturing over time and eventually becoming a fundamental part of the culture in the acquisition and execution processes. Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Early Cost, Function Points, Government, International, IT, Life Cycle, Parametrics, Software Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: NATO Agency Transformation: Creating a Centralized Cost Estimating Capability (GP07) NASA’s X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model V2.0 (GP08) Steve Sterk Government Processes Track In 2015 the idea of creating an Armstrong X-Plane Cost Model was conceived. Initially the data being used was leveraged from Dr. Joe Hamaker’s Quick Cost v5.0 and verified and supplemented by Armstrong’s summer intern Aaron McAtee (PhD). After several peer reviews, it was suggested to go back and take a hard look at the data collected. Our objective is to produce an X-plane database that ensures that all the data is as accurate, traceable and far-reaching as possible. Keywords: Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: NASA’s X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model V2.0 (GP08) Cost Estimate Credibility from a Government Perspective (GP09) Henry Apgar Government Processes Track This original paper describes a search for the definition of “Cost Estimate Credibility.” The author documents his review of government-agency estimating handbooks, contemporary textbooks, previous ICEAA papers and journal articles, and the opinions of contemporary experts. The paper concludes with a concise definition which can be used by government and contractor estimators for their cost models and cost estimates. Presentation: Cost Estimate Credibility from a Government Perspective (GP09) Management Track The Value of R&D – a Real Options Analysis Approach (MG01) John Shimell Neil Davies Management Track This study sought to apply Real Option Analysis (ROA) to answer the question “what is the value achieved from the MODs Chief Scientific Advisor’s (CSA) £400m annual budget”. Typically this has been reviewed retrospectively via case studies and surveys. This study developed a tool based on an amended Black & Scholes Formula, combined with a Monte Carlo analysis of the “tree” of R&D to determine a predictive value for the R&D spend of the CSA. Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Data Collection, Decision Analysis, DOD/MOD, Government, Microsoft Excel, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Variables Represented Partner Organization(s): ACostE, APM Presentation: The Value of R&D – a Real Options Analysis Approach (MG01) What Does A Mature Cost Engineering Organisation Look Like? (MG02) Dale Shermon Management Track Cost Engineering Health Check; How good are those numbers? is Dale Shermon’s second book and co-authored with Dr Mark Gilmour. The book is the paper and the presentation will consider what a mature cost engineering organisation looks like? It will cover the essential requirements for a credible and justified cost forecast. Keywords: Budgeting, Communication, Cost Management, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Early Cost, Functional Requirements, Learning Curves, Life Cycle, Manufacturing, Methods, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Program Management, Project Controls, Regression, Risk, Scheduling, Software, Statistics, Uncertainty, Benchmarking, Maturity Represented Partner Organization(s): SCAF, ICEAA Paper: What Does A Mature Cost Engineering Organisation Look Like? (MG02) Presentation: What Does A Mature Cost Engineering Organisation Look Like? (MG02) Using Public Data for Validation and Winning Bids (MG03) Alexander King Management Track To win bids, cost forecasting involves more than just creating a reasonable baseline. This presentation will show how public data can be combined and triangulated to ensure our predictions are competitive as well as reasonable. The presentation will show how parametric estimates, past contract data, financial statement data and statistical data can combine to make powerful metrics for productivity and competitiveness. Keywords: Decision Analysis, DOD/MOD, Parametrics, Budgeting, Cost Trends Presentation: Using Public Data for Validation and Winning Bids (MG03) OSA: Cost and Schedule Saver or Driver? (MG04) Victoria Cuff Brian D. Fersch Management Track Open Systems Architecture employs a modular design and utilized consensus based standards for its key interfaces with full design disclosures [Office of the Deputy Secretary of Defense, Systems Engineering, Initiatives]. A challenge with OSA is the ability to continuously design modular systems with obsolete technology and pieces, evolving technological environment and emerging threats. Examining past successes and failures, this study will analyze means to reduce costs and increase success. Keywords: Cost Management, Cost/Benefit Analysis, DOD/MOD, Early Cost, Government, Infrastructure, International, Life Cycle, Program Management, Risk Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Paper: OSA: Cost and Schedule Saver or Driver? (MG04) Presentation: OSA: Cost and Schedule Saver or Driver? (MG04) Is it Worth It? The Economics of Reusable Space Transportation (MG05) Richard L. Webb Management Track Much has been invested in reusable space transportation systems in the belief that reusing system elements is cheaper than expending costly hardware each flight; a view not held by all industry stakeholders. This paper will define the metrics by which stakeholders measure financial “goodness,” provide examples of application of the metrics to investment decisions, and offer observations on their potential influence on current and future decisions regarding space transportation system investment. Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, Life Cycle, Space Affordability Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Paper: Is it Worth It? The Economics of Reusable Space Transportation (MG05) Presentation: Is it Worth It? The Economics of Reusable Space Transportation (MG05) The 10+/-2 Factors for Estimate Success (MG06) Andy Nolan Management Track A study of completed projects across Rolls-Royce revealed the factors that lead to accurate estimates. This has enabled us to develop an Estimate Readiness Level (ERL) assessment method, to determine the likely accuracy of an estimate. Success is no accident and estimates accuracy can be predicted from the outset of a project. This paper will cover the factors for estimate success and the development of the ERL assessment. Keywords: Bias, Methods, Process Engineering, Project Controls Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA, SCAF Paper: The 10+/-2 Factors for Estimate Success (MG06) Presentation: The 10+/-2 Factors for Estimate Success (MG06) Models & Methods Track The Signal and the Noise in Cost Estimating (MM01) Christian B. Smart Models & Methods Track We seek to extract signal and eliminate noise when building models with historical data to predict future costs. One common problem is normalization, which is necessary when making comparisons but can inject noise when used in modeling. We discuss kernel smoothing and distribution fitting as ways to avoid overfitting peculiarities in historical data and the important issues of cross-validation and parsimony as ways to validate models and avoid the lure of overfitting. Keywords: Methods, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression, Regression, Statistics, Variables Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Paper: The Signal and the Noise in Cost Estimating (MM01) Presentation: The Signal and the Noise in Cost Estimating (MM01) Facilities Cost Estimates Drivers in the Oil and Gas Field Development (MM02) Ruby Aka Models & Methods Track The facilities cost estimates various across the oil and gas industry field development globally, even fields that hold the same reserves appears to have different cost trend. The objective of this paper is to explore the facilities cost driver in relation to concept selection. Keywords: Cost/Benefit Analysis Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Paper: Facilities Cost Estimates Drivers in the Oil and Gas Field Development (MM02) Presentation: Facilities Cost Estimates Drivers in the Oil and Gas Field Development (MM02) Successful Cost Estimating With T1-Equivalents (MM03) Georg Reinbold Models & Methods Track The parametric estimation of development costs is difficult, and the “good feeling” on the results often missing. The presentation shows a simple and transparent method, which utilizes linear factors on T1. At ESA this has been applied with success for various space program and launcher cost estimates. Also the presentation addresses tailoring of T1-equivalents to the different levels of a cost breakdown structure. This includes data structuring and the problem of missing industrial standards. Keywords: Data Collection, Methods, Microsoft Excel, Modeling, Parametrics, Space, Variables, Cost Breakdown Structure Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA, SSCAG Paper: Successful Cost Estimating With T1-Equivalents (MM03) Presentation: Successful Cost Estimating With T1-Equivalents (MM03) Costing Aircraft Availability and 50-Shades of Grey Water (MM04) Linda Newnes David Peacock Ettore Settani Jon Wright Models & Methods Track In aerospace and defence research has focused on estimating the cost of delivering an outcome, e.g. available aircraft. Our research shows that focusing on the product alone, using product reliability/failures does not reflect the cost of delivering an outcome. In this paper we show why this is the case and how the use of input-output modelling and systems engineering can be used. We then demonstrate how the approach can be used in estimating the cost of waste water treatment. Keywords: Decision Analysis, Life Cycle, Methods, Modeling Represented Partner Organization(s): ACostE, SCAF Presentation: Costing Aircraft Availability and 50-Shades of Grey Water (MM04) Development of an Additive Manufacturing Cost Model (MM05) Grady Noll F. Gurney Thompson III Models & Methods Track This paper discusses our research and development of a cost model for additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D printing. Working with academia and multiple AM companies, we investigated cost drivers, collected cost and technical data, derived AM CERs, and developed an approach for including AM components within a larger parametric cost estimate. This paper discusses the research approach, data collection, results, cost model implementation, and future work. Keywords: Manufacturing, Modeling 3D Printing, Additive Manufacturing Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: Development of an Additive Manufacturing Cost Model (MM05) Automated Data Collection (MM06) Andrew Langridge Anna Foote Models & Methods Track Data gathering is often one of a cost estimator’s biggest nightmares for many reasons. Even in cases where data is available, the logistics of data collection can be daunting. This paper discusses a methodology that PRICE has developed to use open source web crawling software to regularly and repeatedly update guidance on commodity prices for Information Technology items with the push of a button. Uses of this methodology and further directions will be presented. Keywords: Data Collection, Data-Driven, IT, Microsoft Excel, RapidMiner, TruePlanning Presentation: Automated Data Collection (MM06) Risk AnalysisTrack Outing the Outliers (RA02) Alan R. Jones Risk Analysis Track Inappropriate inclusion or exclusion of data that may or may not be regarded as outliers may make a project unachievable or uncompetitive. This paper looks at some of the issues involved and what tests are available to support an informed decision process rather than relying on a random guess on what is, or is not, an outlier. The paper will compare the performance of these tests against a number of sample data sets. Keywords: Bias, Cost Management, Data Collection, Methods, Microsoft Excel, Regression, Risk, Statistics, Uncertainty Outliers Represented Partner Organization(s): ACostE Paper: Outing the Outliers (RA02) Presentation: Outing the Outliers (RA02) The Way From a Parametric Estimate to a CAD-Driven Calculation (RA03) Joachim Schoeffer Herbert Spix Risk Analysis Track The industrial requirements for quick, rough and exact costings (e.g. for budgeting) and the detailed cost break down to the last screw or processor is as old as both methodologies exist. To satisfy both fractions we need different solutions that address both needs. Ideally both scenarios are integrated and interface between each other. In this presentation the author shows a way of integrate parametric and CAD-driven bottom-up. Keywords: Budgeting, Cost Management, Decision Analysis, Early Cost, Labor, Manufacturing, Methods, Parametrics, Uncertainty CAD Geometry Interfacing Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: The Way From a Parametric Estimate to a CAD-Driven Calculation (RA03) A Parametric Model for the Cost Per Flight Hour (RA04) Michail Bozoudis Risk Analysis Track The parametric estimating technique provides timely cost estimates for “unknown” systems, utilizing cost estimating relationships deriving from historical datasets. This case study describes the development of a parametric model that estimates the cost per flight hour (CPFH). The cost derives as a function of the aircraft empty weight and the engine’s specific fuel consumption. As an example, the F-35A CPFH is estimated under the hypothetical scenario that it is operated by the Hellenic Air Force. Keywords: DOD/MOD, Life Cycle, Modeling, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Regression, Statistics, Uncertainty, Variables Paper: A Parametric Model for the Cost Per Flight Hour (RA04) Presentation: A Parametric Model for the Cost Per Flight Hour (RA04) Should You Care About How Good An Estimation Process? (RA05) Alain Abran Risk Analysis Track This presentation is based on the author’s 2015 book on Software Project Estimation (Wiley & IEEE Press) and illustrates how organizations (including in the car industry) having collected their own data using international standards have built their own estimation models and developed a key competitive advantage through improved software estimation capabilities. Examples will include data from a large European car manufacturer and a small software organization using Agile. Presentation: Should You Care About How Good An Estimation Process? (RA05) CER Issues And Solutions (RA06) Kurt Brunner Risk Analysis Track Cost estimating Relationships (CERs) are widely accepted as an effective cost estimating tool. There are some issues with CER development and application that should be addressed. This briefing will explore those probable shortcomings and how they may be alleviated with the goal of refining our cost estimating capabilities. Keywords: Bias, Data Collection, Data-Driven, Learning Curves, Modeling, Parametrics, Regression, Risk, Statistics, Uncertainty CERs Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: CER Issues And Solutions (RA06) Inherent Risk in Spreadsheets (IRiS) (RA07) Alan R. Jones Risk Analysis Track Many spreadsheets may be certified as being error-free on the day they are tested, but some are more prone to future errors due to the manner in which they have been designed or compiled. Keywords: Methods, Microsoft Excel, Modeling, Risk, Variables Represented Partner Organization(s): ACostE Presentation: Inherent Risk in Spreadsheets (RA07) Space Systems Track Satellite Mass Growth (SS01) Donald MacKenzie Erik Burgess Space Systems Track A new study of satellite mass growth on 21 programs shows that equipment type and design maturity are drivers. Unlike current AIAA guidelines, acquisition strategy is shown to be a significant driver, with competitively awarded programs experiencing much higher growth than sole-source awards, even for units with the same design maturity. Overall, mass growth allowance recommended by AIAA for every equipment type is much lower than the actual growth experienced in this dataset. Keywords: DoD, Government, Methods, Space Presentation: Satellite Mass Growth (SS01) QuickCost 6.0 (SS02) Bob Hunt Space Systems Track QuickCost 6.0 has just been released by Galorath Federal and NASA. QuickCost 6.0 is an all new implementation QuickCost (QuickCost 1.0 was released in 2004). The philosophy behind the model is that accurate cost and schedule estimates of automated spacecraft missions can be obtained parametrically in a quick and easy fashion estimating at the top 11 NASA WBS elements and using only a few input variables. QuickCost 6.0 is based on data from the NASA ONCE CADRe database. Keywords: Budgeting, Data-Driven, Early Cost, Government, Life Cycle, Microsoft Excel, Monte Carlo, Parametrics, Program Management, Regression, Risk, Scheduling, Space, Uncertainty, Variables Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: QuickCost 6.0 (SS02) Hubble Space Telescope and Its Color Photographs (SS03) David Pine Space Systems Track The Hubble Space Telescope has taken thousands of “color” photographs that have excited people the world over. This presentation examines the “Mirror Problem” and then how scientists change the photons being collected by the telescope into the phenomenal photographs that have thrilled the public. Understanding the color photographs begins with understanding what color is, and how Hubble’s cameras operate to eventually produce pictures. Keywords: Space Presentation: Hubble Space Telescope and Its Color Photographs (SS03) Halfway to Anywhere (SS04) Fabian Eilingsfeld Space Systems Track A ‘tariff zone map’ is proposed for space transportation. Using parametric analysis, applying the paradigm of terrestrial public transport, it displays specific energy cost depending on total energy delivered to payloads. Every space transportation system leaves its own distinctive footprint when its performance data is plotted on the proposed map. It visualizes performance and cost trends with an emphasis on affordability, which helps rational discussion of project options and roadmaps. Keywords: Data Collection, Early Cost, Modeling, Space Transportation, Cost per Unit of Energy, Cost Trends, Space Shuttle Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: Halfway to Anywhere (SS04) The SSCAG Legacy (SS06) Henry Apgar Space Systems Track Active partnership in this ICEAA Symposium marks the final milestone of a spectacular forty-year journey of the Space Systems Cost Analysis Group. SSCAG provided a unique international forum for space-systems cost analysts. Over those years, more than 300 skilled cost estimators, business analysts, program managers, space engineers, and logisticians filled the international venues, at more than 100 scheduled meetings, to deliberate major issues associated with government and commercial development. Keywords: Cost Management, Data Collection, Infrastructure, International, Methods, Program Management, Space Professional Society, SSCAG Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA, SSCAG Paper: The SSCAG Legacy (SS06) Presentation: The SSCAG Legacy (SS06) Software Track Cloud Solutions – Infrastructure, Platform or Software (SW01) Arlene F. Minkiewicz Ashley Hoenigke Software Track Migrating capability to the cloud comes with several planning and management challenges. How does an organization determine the right capability to migrate and the right platform for the migration? What challenges do the various cloud solutions (Infrastructure vs. Platform vs. Software as a Service) present? This paper presents a case study outlining the migration activities and other implications for migrating the same application on each of the three cloud solution models. Keywords: Software Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Paper: Cloud Solutions – Infrastructure, Platform or Software (SW01) Presentation Cloud Solutions – Infrastructure, Platform or Software (SW01) Measurement of Software Size: Contributions of COSMIC to Estimation Improvements (SW02) Alain Abran Charles Symons Frank Vogelezang Software Track This talk presents 1) an outline of the design of the 2nd generation COSMIC method for measuring a functional size of software; 2) industry evidence of its practical value in software project performance measurement and its accuracy in estimating; 3) an account of the method’s full automation, with very high accuracy, for real-time embedded software specified in Matlab-Simulink and developed through a world network of software contractors. Keywords: COSMIC, functional size measurement, project estimating, ISO 19761, real-time embedded software, project control, requirements measurement Represented Partner Organization(s): Nesma, COSMIC Group Paper: Measurement of Software Size: Contributions of COSMIC to Estimation Improvements (SW02) Presentation: Measurement of Software Size: Contributions of COSMIC to Estimation Improvements (SW02) The Monitoring and Early Warning Indicators for a Software Project (SW03) Christine Green Software Track This presentation will focus on controlling by monitoring and early warning indicators on a software project’s scope, estimate and performance – all factors that highly influence the cost and budget. Keywords: Cost Management, Data Collection, EVM, Function Points, Functional Requirements, Project Controls, Risk, Software, Statistics Represented Partner Organization(s): IFPUG The Monitoring and Early Warning Indicators for a Software Project (SW03) Software Estimating Model Using IFPUG Standard Sizing Methods (SW04) Christine Green Software Track A major input for any cost model for software projects are the scope and effort for a software projects regardless of technology or type of project process. IFPUG Sizing Standards methods can be utilized for software estimating model and thereby establish a valuable input for the cost models produced that will include both scope control and effort estimates. Keywords: Budgeting, Decision Analysis, Early Cost, Function Points, Functional Requirements, IT, Labor, Parametrics, Risk Represented Partner Organization(s): IFPUG Presentation: Software Estimating Model Using IFPUG Standard Sizing Methods (SW04) Introduction to Software Obsolescence Cost Analysis Framework (SW05) Sanathanan Rajagopal Software Track Almost every project in Defence sectors has got software with various degrees of complexity and dependencies. Whilst various research and studies have been conducted on system obsolescence and tools developed to cost systems and components obsolescence, no major research has been undertaken to develop a framework to estimate cost of software obsolescence. This paper will discuss the Software Obsolescence Cost Analysis Framework developed as part this research. Keywords: Cost Management, Early Cost, Government, IT, Software Software Obsolescence, Whole life cost of Software Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA, SCAF Presentation: Introduction to Software Obsolescence Cost Analysis Framework (SW05) Applying Earned Value to Agile Development Programs (SW06) Bob Hunt Michael Thompson Software Track A general movement to Agile software development process is one method used to address and potentially resolve these problems. The movement to Agile Software Development introduces several unique problems for EVM assessments. This paper will discuss some key element associated with: Agile/Hybrid Agile software development; Establishing a process for developing the technical, cost and schedule baseline; Applying Earned Value Management to agile programs. Keywords: Agile, Cost Management, EVM Represented Partner Organization(s): ICEAA Presentation: Applying Earned Value to Agile Development Programs (SW06) CEBoK® Training Track Cost Estimating Techniques (TRN01) CEBoK® Training Track Linda Newnes Kurt Brunner This session covers Module 2 of CEBoK®. It introduces four essential cost estimating techniques that practitioners most often use to develop credible and realistic estimates. They are Analogy, Parametric, Build-up, and Extrapolation from Actuals. We explain how to use these techniques as primary and secondary methodologies to provide flexibility in estimating, and compare and contrast them. Each technique has strengths and weaknesses, varying degrees of applicability at different times during a program’s life cycle and different levels of fidelity required for an estimate. Last, we discuss related topics such as schedule and operations & support (O&S) estimating. Supporting Slides: Cost Estimating Techniques (TRN01) Data Collection & Normalization (TRN02) CEBoK® Training Track Arlene F. Minkiewicz This session covers portions of Modules 4 and 5 of CEBoK®. All estimating techniques and cost estimating models require credible data before they can be used effectively. We will discuss the various types of data, processes needed to collect and analyze the data used in parametric applications, as well as data types, sources, and normalization techniques. As part of normalization, we will discuss inflation and escalation to adjust for changes in price levels over time. Supporting Slides: Data Collection & Normalization (TRN02) Learning Curve Analysis (TRN03) CEBoK® Training Track Greg Mislick Alan R Jones This session covers Module 7 of CEBoK®. We will discuss the key ideas, analytical constructs, and applications of learning curve analysis, including unit and cumulative average (CUMAV) theories and lot midpoint (LMP) determination. Supporting Slides: Learning Curve Analysis (TRN03) Data Analysis (TRN04) CEBoK® Training Track Sarah Green This session covers Module 6 of CEBoK®. It discusses the first analytical steps to take after obtaining a set of cost data, with a particular emphasis on techniques for displaying and analyzing data graphically. It addresses univariate, bivariate, and multivariate data sets, with a focus on statistical analysis of univariate data sets and graphical analysis of bivariate data sets via scatter plots. It introduces measures of central tendency, measures of variability, and measures of uncertainty, such as confidence and prediction intervals. Supporting Slides: Data Analysis (TRN04) Regression/Parametric Analysis (TRN05) CEBoK® Training Track Greg Mislick Alan R. Jones This session covers Module 8 and portions of Module 3 of CEBoK®. Attendees will learn the key ideas, primary analytical constructs, practical applications, and applicable commercial-off-the-shelf tools related to parametric estimating, as well as all essential components of regression analysis ,including residual analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and confidence and prediction intervals. Nonlinear and multivariable models will be briefly introduced. Upon completion of this session, the student will have a full understanding of the methods through which parametric estimates are developed, as well as how to use mathematical modeling techniques to create Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from provided normalized data. Supporting Slides: Regression/Parametric Analysis (TRN05) Cost/Schedule Risk Analysis (TRN06) CEBoK® Training Track Christian B. Smart This session covers Module 9 of CEBoK®. It will provide a framework for handling Risk and Uncertainty within cost and schedule estimates and present various common approaches such as Inputs Risk, Outputs Risk, and Risk Management (“Risk Cube”). Supporting Slides: Cost/Schedule Risk Analysis (TRN06) Probability & Statistics (TRN07) Peter J. Braxton CEBoK® Training Track This session covers Module 10 of CEBoK®. It will review statistical and probability concepts relevant to cost estimation and uncertainty. Topics will include statistics; measures of central tendency; measures of dispersion; and important probability distributions and their linkage to cost estimates. We also introduce the concept of a random variable; Monte Carlo simulation; the Inverse CDF method; and thoughts on the differences between the normal and lognormal distributions. Finally, we discuss hypothesis testing and its relationship to cost estimating. Supporting Slides: Probability & Statistics (TRN07) Software Cost Estimating (TRN08) Sanathanan Rajagopal Patrick Cross CEBoK® Training Track This session covers Module 12 of CEBoK®. It will convey the principles of this critical area of specialized cost estimating. It addresses the basics of software development and some of the things to look out for in software estimating, and includes specific examples of applying software estimating techniques. The presentation will walk through examples of how to approach a software cost estimate using a number of estimating relationships and ideas, commercial models that can be used to construct estimates, and various methods of software development. Supporting Slides: Software Cost Estimating (TRN08) Cost/Earned Value Management (TRN09) Peter J. Braxton CEBoK® Training Track This session covers portions of Module 15 and 16 of CEBoK®. It covers the basic concepts of Earned Value Management (EVM) with a focus on implementation, governance, and practical application in support of a project or program, including Earned Value Analysis and the roles of the cost estimator in successful EVM implementation. It also provides an introduction to cost management, discussing tools and techniques currently in use by leading-edge organizations, the role of cost estimating/analysis, and the related discipline of Cost As an Independent Variable (CAIV). Supporting Slides: Cost/Earned Value Management (TRN09) Sponsor Showcase Be the first to see FACET within the TruePlanning Framework (SPON01) Sponsor Showcase Track In 2016 QinetiQ took the decision to collaborate with PRICE Systems to bring the world leading capability of their FACET (Family of Advanced Cost Estimating Tools) models into the PRICE Systems TruePlanning Framework. FACET is an industry proven macro-parametric model that delivers a new capability for the forecasting of early conceptual project costs enabling you to quickly conduct balance of investment options analysis, test project design parameters and produce realistic risk based budgets early in the project life cycle. TruePlanning is the first commercial parametric solution that is open for third party models to be implemented as well as delivering best in class parametric models for Hardware, software and IT infrastructure projects. The workshop program will include: introduction to PRICE Systems and QinetiQ; presentation of FACET unique cost forecasting capabilities; demonstration of the FACET models in the TruePlanning framework; presentation of a case study using this new capability. TruePlanning 2016 Update (SPON02) Sponsor Showcase Track Dean Stone During this session you will learn about the new capabilities of TruePlanning 2016 (TP2016) release. TP2016 has had an architectural and user interface refresh in line with the current trends being adopted by key software developers. You will also be introduced to the new project template capability which is aimed at improving knowledge reuse, simplifying the systems for new users and reducing the time needed to initialise a new project. We will also be demonstrating two of the integrated companion products TrueMapper and TrueFindings. PRICE Systems Integrated Cost Management Platform (SPON03) Sponsor Showcase Track Andrew Langridge PRICE Systems will be introducing its Integrated Cost Management Platform (ICMP). ICMP enables our European clients to integrate in a robust, comprehensive framework the multi-granular estimates that must be produced and managed to deliver a successful project. We will be showing two aspects of ICMP, the CAD to cost solution that takes CAD solid models (or STEP files) and automatically generates the appropriate manufacturing routing and cost from first principles and bottom up estimation solution that supports the maturing of the typical excel based bottom up estimation cost model in to a purpose built, highly flexible estimation environment. Making better decisions with Monte Carlo simulation: @RISK and understanding the future (SPON04) Sponsor Showcase Track Doug Oldfield Palisade’s @RISK software enables clients, including the UK Ministry of Defence and 93% of the FTSE 100, to run Monte Carlo simulations on their regular Excel models. In this presentation we will explore how the tool can be applied to cost models to calculate contingency, how risk registers can – and should – be built, and how to model schedule risk. These will then be brought together to show an integrated cost and time model. CAD to Cost with SEER and CATIA v5 (SPON05) Sponsor Showcase Track Keith Garland During this session, you will learn about the evolution of SEER for Manufacturing (SEER-MFG) from the best 2D estimation solution into the world of 3D with a bespoke interface into Dassault Systemes CATIA 3DExperience Program. We will demonstrate SEER-MFG running within CATIA v5 for generating estimates of composites and sheet metal designs. An Introduction to SEER for Systems Engineering (SPON06) Sponsor Showcase Track Chris Hutchings SEER for Systems Engineering (SEER-SYS) is a pioneering solution that ties estimates of systems engineering efforts system attributes using a parametric approach that lends focus and fidelity to system characteristics. SEER-SYS offers a robust modeling environment that uses both quantified attributes (e.g. requirements, interfaces) as well as qualitative parameters describing the technical challenge, team and tools. In this presentation, you will learn the benefits of estimating systems engineering and how SEER-SYS can offer a framework for evaluating alternative solutions and architectures, ensuring that projects are feasible and optimized. Presentation: An Introduction to SEER for Systems Engineering What’s New and What’s Coming in SEER (SPON07) Sponsor Showcase Track David Simms Imagine a project management tool, which would allow you to describe a project in a few simple steps, based on sound science and applicable project histories, to provide you with a most likely estimate for project cost, effort, and duration. All of this and more is possible with SEER by Galorath. This presentation shares the new developments that will be available within the SEER product suite during 2017, keeping SEER to the forefront of product and service cost estimation with regards to Software, IT/ICT, Hardware and Manufacturing.