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Volatility and Cost Estimating

Methods and Models II Track




This paper will examine the properties and uses of implied volatility, stochastic volatility, and historic realized volatility. Further discussion will focus on what applications an assessment of market volatility brings to the field of cost estimating through the application of a volatility range derived for fuel prices at varying intervals over the course of a generic program’s life cycle.


Jennifer Leotta
Department of Homeland Security
Since 2010, Jennifer Leotta has worked as a Senior Operations Research Analyst for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). She began her federal career as a Survey Statistician with the US Census Bureau in 2002. Then, in 2005, she moved into acquisition support at the Navy Engineering Logistics Office (NELO) as an Operations Research analyst. She holds an MA in Economics from George Mason University and a BS in Quantitative Finance from James Madison University.