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Joint Confidence Level of a Parametric Software Cost and Schedule Estimate

Risk Track




This paper summarizes a regression-based approach for developing, describing, and calibrating Cost and Duration Estimating Relationships (CDERs) (Ross, 2008) and then describes a simple method for determining joint and conditional probabilities of estimates based on these CDERs. The paper concludes with a practical example of developing a CDER from Software Resources Data Report (SRDR) data collected by Dr. Wilson Rosa of the U.S. Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) and then implementing the developed CDER with joint and conditional probability calculation in a Tecolote ACE model.


Michael A. Ross
Tecolote Research, Inc.
Michael A. Ross has over 35 years of experience in software engineering as a developer, manager, process expert, consultant, instructor, and award-winning international speaker. Mr. Ross is currently a Technical Expert for Tecolote Research, Inc. Mr. Ross’s previous experience includes three years as President and CEO of r2Estimating, LLC (makers of the r2Estimator software estimation tool), three years as Chief Engineer of Galorath Inc. (makers of the SEER suite of estimation tools), seven years with Quantitative Software Management, Inc. (makers of the SLIM suite of software estimating tools) where he was Vice President of Education Services, and 17 years with Honeywell Air Transport Systems and 2 years with Tracor Aerospace where he developed and/or managed the development of various military and commercial avionics systems. Mr. Ross did his undergraduate work at the United States Air Force Academy and Arizona State University, receiving a BS in Computer Engineering.