SOFTWARE SCHEDULE ESTIMATING LINKED TO COST ESTIMATES
Software & IT Track
Recently there has been growing emphasis within the cost community on schedule estimating, and exploring the link between cost and schedule for Department of Defense (DoD) programs. As software development has become an increasingly important part of acquisition for the DoD, the need for better software cost and schedule models has grown. The intrinsic link between cost and schedule allows the acquisition community to adequately time phase resources to ensure you meet predicted schedules. Although a number of “commercial” models exist that will perform these functions, visibility into the data behind Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) and Schedule Estimating Relationships (SERs) is preferred in order to build a comprehensive program model.
Effective Source Lines of Code (ESLOC) is widely considered a good quantitative measure of software size and effort. ESLOC attempts to capture the relative effort of each software build, and it is an obvious choice as a primary cost driver. In addition, software development teams’ resource loaded schedules are also a function of ESLOC, among other attributes such as development environment. This implies that there exists a relationship between ESLOC and both the cost and duration of a program, and the challenge is quantifying that relationship. Using a database published in the Aerospace Software Cost and Productivity Model (augmented with data points from other DoD and IC programs), eight different application types in four separate operating environments were analyzed. SERs and CERs were developed for those that had a significant relationship between ESLOC and effort, and ESLOC and schedule. With both these dependent variables estimated as a function of the ESLOC, there now exists quantifiable, mathematically modeled relationships linking cost and schedule.
Software-intensive programs that have a detailed schedule at the CSCI level might be able to apply these parametric modeling techniques as a primary estimating methodology or a crosscheck to summary level cost and schedule estimates.
Sarah J. Springer is Cost Analyst at MCR, LLC. Since starting with MCR in May 2005, she has supported both SMC and AFCAA in developing independent cost estimates on various Air Force programs. She has also supported the IC CAIG’s research projects to assist in providing a mathematically sound solution for establishing prediction bounds on CER-based estimates. Sarah earned her Bachelors in Mathematics from Azusa Pacific University in May 2005.
Daniel I. Feldman is a Cost Analyst at MCR, LLC. Since joining MCR in early September 2005, he has worked on developing new techniques for deriving CERs and for examining their significance. He has also worked on launch and space vehicle modeling and trade-study analysis. Mr. Feldman earned his B.S. in mathematics in June 2005, with concentration in statistics, at the University of California, Irvine, and his M.S. in applied statistics at California State University, Long Beach. He wrote his master’s thesis on the subject of bootstrap sampling.
Mr. Hogan graduated from Penn State University in 1990, receiving a BS degree in Industrial Engineering. After college he became a charter member of the Engineering and Scientist Development Program at the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR). Throughout his career at NAVAIR he collected numerous awards & commendations during assignments throughout cost analysis, contracts, and engineering groups. In the evenings, he returned to school, earning an MS degree in Systems Engineering from Virginia Tech. He is a recognized instructor of cost estimating & analysis, with audiences in the Department of Defense (DoD), Intelligence Community (IC), UK Ministry of Defense, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA), Census Bureau, and Industry.
He contributed to many research papers (Class A / Class C Spacecraft, Commercial Space Practices, New Challenges to Cost Estimating) presented at national conferences. Back in 1997, he published a master’s thesis (Evaluation of Military Base Closure Alternatives) that re-defined the cost-benefit process used to evaluate Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) scenarios. The Commander of NAVAIR awarded him the prestigious Meritorious Civilian Service award for contributions and dedication to the BRAC cause. He is an author of benchmark cost processes used by NAVAIR that are the foundation for much of the Society of Cost Estimation and Analysis (SCEA) courseware.
After his tenure at NAVAIR, Mr. Hogan joined Tecolote Research and became an industry leader in data collection, methods development and acquisition support to the IC. He was a principal player in the evaluation and subsequent litigation support to the largest acquisition in the history of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).
While working for Northrop Grumman TASC, Mr. Hogan was promoted to Technical Director of Research & Estimating. For five years, he led the life cycle estimate activities of high visibility programs for Defense and Intelligence Community customers. As a subject matter expert, he participated in summit meetings with the General Accountability Office (GAO) and he is cited for contributions to the GAO Cost Assessment Guide.
In the fall of 2008, Mr. Hogan joined the Economic and Business Analysis team at Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH). In this capacity, he leverages his extensive resume’ and reach back to other experts in various disciplines to support clients within the Defense, Intelligence Community, and Civil Markets. As a recognized leader in the cost / risk estimating domain, he is an active member of the Joint Space Cost Council (JSCC) and is called about to lead many special interest projects. Through his involvement with Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) and the Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers (IEEE), he has partnered Booz Allen Hamilton’s Applied Economic Analysis group with the engineering community.