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SEER for Hardware’s Cost Model for Future Orbital Concepts (“Far Out”)

Software/Hardware/Tools Track

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The Advanced Spacecraft Cost Model effort (Far Out) has sought to produce a model that can, with reasonable certainty, estimate orbital concepts lying 15 years into the future. In the process it has assembled a spacecraft database of over 200 missions, 150 of them associated with cost. Far Out has sought to predict the future largely by trending forward estimating methods calibrated in progressive chronologic windows against past missions. A number of high level (from the perspective of information provided) estimating methods have been attempted. The results for the best-performing methods are presented. The model has now been implemented in SEER for Hardware, as the presentation will illustrate, along with parameter sensitivities. Far Out was sponsored under the auspices of a Small Business Innovation Research grant from the AFRL Vehicles Directorate.


Lee Fischman
Lee Fischman manages much of the new product development at Galorath and also a variety of research projects. At Galorath he also has been awarded several Small Business Innovation Research grants. His most prominent area of research has been software metrics, although he has coordinated the development of systems for statistical data mining, project planning, estimating by comparison and, most recently, a spacecraft costing model. Prior to Galorath, he worked as a programmer in the New York financial industry. Mr. Fischman obtained an MA in Economics from UCLA and a BA from the University of Chicago.