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Software Development Schedule Realism: Prediction Band Tool

Software Track

Downloadable Files:

SW-14 Converse Paper SW Realism


Knowing the probability of achieving an originally proposed schedule, as well as updated schedule proposals throughout a contract, provides decision makers insight when considering schedule changes, risk mitigation plans, funding and other decisions. The purpose of a schedule realism tool is to provide this insight by determining the probability that the software development schedule proposed will be met, as well as information about the distribution of the proposed schedule.
The paper will present the research and methodology behind a schedule realism tool which utilizes Prediction Bands. The tool will be based on historical data from the Automated Information Systems (AIS), but the methodology will extend to any program with sufficient historical data.


Allison Converse
Allison L. Converse is a Operations Research Analyst for Northrop Grumman Information Technology – Intelligence Group (TASC). In the past, she has supported Statistics Northwest with research in data quality improvement. For the past two years, Allison has been primarily supporting the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). She supports TASC on cost estimates and Intelligence Capability Baseline Descriptions (ICBDs) for Automated Information Systems. Allison earned her B.S. in Mathematics with a Concentration in Operations Research and a Minor in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University.

Jeffrey Jaekle
Jeff Jaekle graduated from William and Mary in May of 2006 with a B.A. in Economics and a minor in government. In June of 2006, Jeff joined Northrop Grumman as an operations researcher performing cost analysis for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). Mr. Jaekle has performed research for the Air force (AFCAA) and worked on cost analysis for the Virginia Information Technology Agency (VITA). He also works on a team conducting Independent Cost Proposal Evaluations throughout Northrop Grumman.

Eric Druker
Eric R. Druker graduated from the College of William and Mary with a B.S. in Applied Mathematics in 2005 concentrating in both Operations Research and Probability & Statistics with a minor in Economics. Over the past two years he has been employed by Northrop Grumman as an Operations Research Analyst. He performs cost and risk analysis on several programs within both the Intelligence and DoD communities. Mr. Druker has also worked on high profile projects such as the Virginia Information Technology Agency and the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) proposals. He was a recipient of the 2005 NGIT President’s award for his work on several high profile Independent Cost Evaluations during which he helped to develop the risk process currently used by NGIT’s ICE teams. He has also performed decision tree analysis for NG Corporate law and built models for Hurricane Katrina Impact Studies and Schedule/Cost Growth determination.