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Developing Risk Adjusted Results with Limited Data

Risk Track

Downloadable Files:

RISK-8 Rohlck Paper Risk Adjustment Limited Data


This paper expands on work by Dr. Stephen Book, MCR by addressing additional distributions in performing “quick-risk” analyses. We provide an overview of the purpose and methodology and then develop the equations for implementation.

Given a simple point estimate, this methodology, when combined with some assumptions, allows the decision maker to estimate the high confidence cost/benefits. The methodology is developed for three different assumed statistical distributions (Triangular, Normal & Log-Normal). Additionally a high-level discussion of cost/benefits risk analysis will be covered.


Gabriela Rohlk
Gabriela is currently and Operations Research analyst with MCR LLC providing technical support to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). In this position she performs significant data analysis on commercial flights and estimates of the benefits of investing capital in new/updated technologies. These estimates include estimates of risk/uncertainty associated with achieving the calculated benefits. This is then included in the Economic Analysis to assist decision makers with complete information.

Prior to MCR, Gabriela was a contractor with AMTI supporting the FAA and PMG supporting the Coast Guard. She also worked for the Romanian Competition Office in Bucharest.

Gabriela has a Masters in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins, a B.S. in Economics and in Metallurgy.