2015 Workshop Training

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The table below can be sorted by track or paper title, and is searchable.
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackProb/Stat AdvancedMarc Greenberg, Christian Smart
Cost Estimating Basic TrackEconomic Analysis BasicKammy Mann, Joseph Sarage
Cost Estimating Basic TrackContract PricingPeter Braxton, Rick Collins
Cost Estimating Basic TrackEVM BasicDavid Bach, Thomas Harless
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackEconomic Analysis AdvancedJoseph Sarage
Parametric Training TrackComplex Models HardwareDavid Bloom
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackSoftware Cost Estimating AdvancedHarold van Heeringen, Bob Hunt
Integration TrackData Science and Cost EstimatingEric Druker
Integration TrackTarget Costing and TradesMarc Greenberg, John Deem
Integration TrackCost Implications of WSARABob Hunt
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackMonte Carlo SimulationsJohn Swaren, Blake Boswell
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackManufacturing Cost EstimatingJohn Deem, Charles Kurtz, Kammy Mann
Cost Estimating Basic TrackLearning Curve AnalysisGurney Thompson, Michael Mahoney
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackProbability Distributions for RiskPeter Braxton
Cost Estimating Basic TrackProb/Stat BasicTim Anderson, Stacy Dean
Cost Estimating Basic TrackSoftware Cost EstimatingBlaze Smallwood, Arlene Minkiewicz
Parametric Training TrackRegression Nonlinear/MultivariateDavid Harris
Parametric Training TrackOther Parametric ApplicationsJohn Swaren
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackRisk Analysis AdvancedChristian Smart, Amanda Wilson
Parametric Training TrackComplex Models Company-DevelopedChris Price
Parametric Training TrackCER Risk and S-CurvesChristian Smart, Chris Price
Parametric Training TrackRegression MultiplicativeHerve Joumier
Integration TrackJoint Cost and Schedule RiskDavid Hulett, Eric Druker
Integration TrackContracts Risk/RCAPeter Braxton
Integration TrackCost ManagementTom Dauber, Zachary Jasnoff, John Deem
Cost Estimating Basic TrackRisk Analysis BasicEric Druker, Sarah Green
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackGAO Cost Assessment GuideBruce Fad, Neil Chakrabarti
Cost Estimating Basic TrackCost Estimating BasicsTed Mills, Chris Dalton
Cost Estimating Basic TrackCost Estimating TechniquesPatrick K. Malone, Matthew McGovern
Integration TrackBasic Schedule AnalysisJustin Hornback
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackCost and Software Data ReportsEmily Beltramo, Brandon Bryant
Integration TrackCost Estimating in PMBoK vs. CEBoKCassie Capots, Lauren Nolte
Integration TrackAdvanced Schedule AnalysisJustin Hornback
Cost Estimating Basic TrackInflationSam Toas, Bill Seeman
Cost Estimating Basic TrackData CollectionEric Plumer, Christina Snyder
Cost Estimating Basic TrackData AnalysisWalter Bednarski, Alex Wekluk
Integration TrackSchedule Risk AnalysisDavid Hulett
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackTechnical BaselinesJason Dechoretz, Paul Tetrault, Greg Hogan, Sam Toas
Cost Estimating Advanced TrackWork Breakdown Structure (WBS)Chris Dalton
Parametric Training TrackParametric Analysis OverviewAnthony Demarco, Steve Glogoza
Parametric Training TrackCost Estimating Relationships (CERs)Anthony Demarco
Parametric Training TrackRegression LinearPeter Braxton, Remmie Arnold

2015 Training Program Co-Chairs

Remmie Arnold
Peter Braxton

Cost Estimating Basic Track

Track Chairs:
Joe Bauer
Thomas Harless
Melissa Winter

Cost Estimating Basics
Chris Dalton
Ted Mills

The Cost Estimating Overview session introduces the basics of cost estimating and analysis and the reasons for doing cost estimates. Additionally, the motivation for cost estimating, why and how it is used, and an overview of the challenges and issues will be presented. Cost estimating products will be reviewed and a general overview of the process and methods used to develop cost estimates will be discussed, providing the background information and fundamental knowledge needed for the other CEB sessions. This session will provide an overview of the ICEAA certification process and give trainees an understanding of what to expect in the subsequent CEB sessions.

Cost Estimating Techniques
Patrick Malone
Matthew McGovern

The Cost Estimating Overview session introduces the basics of cost estimating and analysis and the reasons for doing cost estimates. Additionally, the motivation for cost estimating, why and how it is used, and an overview of the challenges and issues will be presented. Cost estimating products will be reviewed and a general overview of the process and methods used to develop cost estimates will be discussed, providing the background information and fundamental knowledge needed for the other CEB sessions. This session will provide an overview of the ICEAA certification process and give trainees an understanding of what to expect in the subsequent CEB sessions.

Data Collection
Eric Plumer
Christina Snyder

This session covers the Core Knowledge section of Module 04 Data Collection of CEBoK. All parametric estimating techniques and cost estimating models require credible data before they can be used effectively. Training in Data Collection and Analysis discusses the processes needed to collect and analyze the data used in parametric applications, as well as data types, sources, and adjustment techniques.

Sam Toas
Bill Seeman

This session covers the Core Knowledge section of Module 05 Inflation and Index Numbers of CEBoK. Proper inflation analysis is essential to the success of any cost estimate or economic analysis. Calculating inflation correctly and understanding the fundamental concepts will enable you to produce cost estimates that are timely, accurate, and credible to support your program’s lifecycle needs. It will also empower you to communicate with key stakeholders on the need to adjust your financial estimates based on changes in the economy.

Data Analysis
Walter Bednarski
Alex Wekluk

This session discusses the first analytical steps to take after obtaining a set of cost data, with a particular emphasis on techniques for displaying and analyzing data graphically. It addresses univariate, bivariate, and multivariate data sets, with a focus on statistical analysis of univariate data sets and graphical analysis of bivariate data sets via scatter plots. It introduces measures of central tendency, such as mean, median, and mode; measures of variability, such as standard deviation, variance, and coefficient of variation (CV); and measures of uncertainty, such as confidence and prediction intervals. A couple of vivid examples illustrate the perils of drawing conclusions from your numerical data without looking at a graph.

Learning Curve Analysis
Michael Mahoney
Gurney Thompson

This is a training track presentation of the CEBoK Module 7 (Learning Curves). The presentation will cover the key ideas, analytical constructs and applications of the learning curve module. The target audience are those preparing to take the ICEAA certification exam. Beyond the theoretical information, we will present the study questions for Module 7 with steps required to solve the problems using only a calculator as is required on the certification exam.

Risk Analysis Basic
Eric Druker
Sarah Green

This session will provide motivation for the need for risk analysis and introduce the basic types and uses of risk. It will focus on the practical execution of the general risk analysis process: (1) Develop a point estimate; (2) Identify the risk areas in the point estimate; (3) Determine uncertainty around the point estimate; (4) Apply correlation between uncertainty distributions; (5) Run the Monte Carlo simulation; (6) Assess the reasonableness of results; (7) Calculate, allocate, and phase risk dollars; and (8) Show the results.

Probability and Statistics Basic
Tim Anderson
Stacy Dean

This will be a review of statistical and probability concepts relevant to cost estimation and uncertainty. Topics will include statistics; measures of central tendency; measures of dispersion; and important probability distributions and their linkage to cost estimates. We also introduce the concept of a random variable; Monte Carlo simulation; the Inverse CDF method; and thoughts on the differences between the normal and lognormal distributions. Finally, we discuss hypothesis testing and its relationship to cost estimating.

Software Cost Estimating
Arlene Minkiewicz
Blaze Smallwood

This session will convey the principles of this critical area of specialized cost estimating. It addresses the basics of software development and some of the things to look out for in software estimating, and includes specific examples of applying software estimating techniques. The presentation will walk through examples of how to approach a software cost estimate using a number of estimating relationships and ideas, commercial models that can be used to construct estimates, and various methods of software development.

Economic Analysis Basic
Kammy Mann
Joseph Sarage
This session covers the Core Knowledge section of Module 13 Economic Analysis of CEBoK. It will be of particular interest to anyone studying for the ICEAA certification exam. The session provides a practitioner’s perspective for conducting an economic analysis (EA) by reviewing EA concepts, terminology, variables and measures-of-merit. By accounting for monetized costs, monetized benefits, opportunity costs and time-value-of-money (“discounting”), an EA enables one to calculate economic measures-of-merit.

Contract Pricing
Peter Braxton
Rick Collins

This session takes a holistic view of the contracting and contract pricing from a cost estimator’s viewpoint, with emphasis on acquisition planning, contract pricing and cost/price analysis. The discussion of acquisition planning will focus on contract types, specifically how cost risk is shared between parties and the profit/fee potentials commensurate with that risk. The use of cost estimating techniques to establish a basis of estimate (BOE) as the foundation of the cost/price proposal (i.e. cost pricing) will be explained in detail.

EVM Basic
David Bach
Thomas Harless

This session will provide an introduction to the basic concepts of earned value management (EVM), with a focus on practical application in support of a project or program. Specific topics will include basic EVM components and data elements, as well as standard earned value analysis techniques. A sample case study will be introduced and built upon throughout the session to demonstrate and reinforce these basic principles of EVM.

Track Chairs:
Laura Barker
Emily Beltramo
Brandon Bryant

Cost Estimating Advanced Track

GAO Cost Assessment Guide
Neil Chakrabarti
Bruce Fad

In March 2009, the United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) published, GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, Best Practices for Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs. The guide was developed to establish a consistent methodology that is based on best practices and that can be used across the federal government for developing, managing, and evaluating capital program cost estimates. This training will introduce the twelve-step process, describe the characteristics and contents of a high quality estimate, and illustrate the application of the guide to GAO assessments.

Technical Baselines
Jason Dechoretz
Paul Tetrault
Sam Toas

Understanding the technical and programmatic issues of the program/product you are estimating is key to developing a good cost estimate. This session discusses what information you need to baseline the technical and programmatic aspects of the program, the questions that need to be asked to ensure a clear understanding and how these issues translate into a cost perspective.

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
Chris Dalton

The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a critical part of managing and planning any project. The WBS is the best tool for ensuring consistency and focus on the project. This presentation will discuss the key attributes of a good WBS in scoping and planning of projects. The presentation will provide the generally accepted concepts of the use and application of the WBS as well as why it is often misunderstood and not used as it should for maximum effectiveness.

Cost and Software Data Reports
Emily Beltramo
Brandon Bryant

This training session will give an overview of Cost and Software Data Reports (CSDRs) and how they can be employed to facilitate the development of better and more credible cost estimates. This training session will also demo and discuss the Cost Assessment Data Enterprise (CADE) tool. CADE collects, organizes, and displays data, including EVM, CSDRs, Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs), budget data, and technical data all in one centralized location.

Risk Analysis Advanced
Christian Smart
Amanda Wilson

This session will delve into advanced topics in risk, including a short and entertaining refresher on basic cost risk analysis. We will perform an analysis of historical risk data by studying the effect of program size on cost / schedule growth and how we can use this information in our risk analysis. This session covers the Related and Advanced Topics section of Module 09 Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of CEBoK.

Monte Carlo Simulations
Blake Boswell
John Swaren

Monte Carlo simulations are the most commonly used tool for performing risk analysis. This training will walk through a brief history of Monte Carlo simulations, from their use in evaluating Pi, through their application on the Manhattan project. The bulk of the training will be an interactive demonstration where the attendees create their own Monte Carlo simulation, alongside the instructor, in Excel (using a few lines of Visual Basic coding). The simulation will be run and the results analyzed in real-time to provide attendees a deeper understanding of where S-Curves come from and how to interpret them.

Probability Distributions for Risk
Peter Braxton

Cost Estimating Advanced builds on the topics covered in Cost Estimating Basic. Topics addressed include: understanding the shape of a distribution and how it is related to that distribution’s parameters; alternative specification of distributions, such as by any two of a central point (mean, median, and/or mode), a coefficient of variation (CV), and a percentile; correction of distributions for understatement of both mean and CV; and useful rules of thumb for characterizing distributions.

Probability and Statistics Advanced
Marc Greenberg
Christian Smart

This training session builds upon the Probability / Statistics Basic concepts relevant to cost estimation and uncertainty analysis. Topics to be presented include: ordinary least squares, outlier analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, and method of moments. Instructors will provide you with useful approaches to apply advanced statistical concepts to data sets used in your cost estimate generation efforts and approaches for the techniques to ensure you can apply the techniques appropriately in their real-world estimating scenarios.

Manufacturing Cost Estimating
John Deem
Charles Kurtz
Kammy Mann

The goal of the Manufacturing Cost Estimating module is to arm the student with a set of techniques used to address issues unique to estimating in the manufacturing environment. It will be our objective in this module to raise a few of the most common general issues, considerations and concerns the estimator must be aware of in a typical major manufacturing environment and to provide techniques for addressing them.

Software Cost Estimating Advanced
Bob Hunt
Harold van Heeringen

Cost Estimating Advanced – Software Cost Estimating Advanced

This session: 1) explores functional size measurement techniques with parametric models and historical data; 2) explains functional size and the estimation laws that should be understood before estimating a software project; 3) presents a case is given where a reality check based on functional size and historical data prevented a project disaster; 4) explores current practices in agile software development and present alternative approaches to estimating the cost and schedule for an agile program.

Integration Track

Track Chairs:
Mike Allen
Sabrina Beane
Ken Rhodes

Basic Schedule Analysis
Justin Hornback

Examination of Program performance continues to identify the development and monitoring of program schedules as a weakness in programs that do not meet technical, cost, and schedule goals. This workshop presentation will cover scheduling basics, desired attributes of a valid project schedules, and basic schedule analysis techniques important to programmatic and cost estimator analysts. Schedule analysis tools and techniques will include, but are not limited to, three point estimates and schedule risk analysis.

Advanced Schedule Analysis
Justin Hornback

This workshop will build on topics covered by Basic Schedule Analysis, expanding into the detailed process to conduct schedule analysis. Topics include common schedule analysis metrics and how to use them to analyze a schedule. Using an Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) to create an analysis schedule and employing schedule risk analysis with resource/cost loading to build the framework for Joint (Cost and Schedule) Confidence Level (JCL) creation.

Schedule Risk Analysis
David Hulett

Project scheduling is only the start of understanding when your project will finish. This workshop shows how simulating uncertain durations allow the user to determine how much overrun there might be at different target levels of certainty. We introduce the Risk Driver method of driving the Monte Carlo simulations using the risks usually found starting from the Risk Register. We then prioritize the risks for effective risk mitigation.

Joint Cost and Schedule Risk
Eric Druker
David Hulett

Recognizing the need to ensure results from cost and schedule risk analyses are compatible, agencies, such as NASA, have recently implemented policy requiring the integration of these two, formerly separate, practices. This training course will provide analysts an overview on how they can integrate their cost estimates, schedules, and risk register into a single cohesive model that can then be analyzed to predict future cost and schedule growth and identify their sources so that mitigative actions can be taken. A live demonstration of an integrated cost/schedule risk analysis (ICSRA) tool, Polaris, will be conducted in class so that analysts can familiarize themselves with how an ICSRA model works.

Contracts Risk
Peter Braxton

This session will present cost estimating and risk analysis as tools to aid in facing contract management challenges. This session is adapted from “Cost Estimating and Risk Analysis as Tools for Contract Management,” twice presented at the Government Contract Management Conference (GCMC), sponsored by sister society National Contract Management Association (NCMA). It also draws from “Analysis of Large O&S Proposals: Lessons Learned,” presented at ICEAA 2013.

Cost Management
Tom Dauber
John Deem
Zachary Jasnoff

This session provides an introduction to cost management, discussing tools and techniques currently in use by leading-edge organizations, the role of cost estimating/analysis, and the related discipline of Cost As an Independent Variable (CAIV). Cost management takes a holistic approach, incorporating cost considerations into the overall management approach, and together with other measures of performance, help lead to decisions that provide optimal value to organizations and customers, be they shareholders, consumers, or warfighters.

Cost Implications of WSARA
Bob Hunt

The Cost Implications of WSARA presentation places the legislation in the context of an ever-evolving acquisition framework. Further, it covers the role played by acquisition in management of the defense enterprise, especially its connection with the two other major decision-support systems employed in the Department: the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System, and the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System. These other two systems, requirements and resourcing, can and do influence acquisition outcomes, sometimes significantly.

Cost Estimating in PMBoK vs. CEBoK
Cassie Capots
Lauren Nolte

The Project Management Body of Knowledge and Cost Estimating Body of Knowledge each give guidance on effective cost estimating for successful project execution. There is a good deal of overlap between the two curricula, but also significant differences. More importantly, in many instances, the same terms are used differently. Mastering cost estimating as it exists in both requires you to remember everything you learn as you study these bodies of knowledge. And then forget it.

Target Costing and Trades
John Deem
Marc Greenberg

This session provides a practical introduction to tools and techniques used by government and industry to incorporate cost considerations into enterprise cost management efforts by supporting decisions that provide optimal value to the enterprise. The presentation is based on Module 16 Cost Management of CEBoK© still covering the essence initiatives to reduce total ownership costs, CAIV, Target Costing and Activity-Based Costing while incorporating additional references useful to estimators and cost analysts preparing for assignments to support the affordability mission.

Data Science and Cost Estimating
Eric Druker

For decades, cost analysts have relied on the same statistical approaches to building estimates. These approaches face numerous limitatations stressing their utility for estimating cost. Data Science is the extraction of knowledge from data. With the recent rise in computing power and democratization of complex methodologies we now have access to an array of approaches previously unthinkable when it came to cost estimating. This exploration will introduce data science to the cost estimating community.

Parametrics Training Track

Track Chairs:
Jessica Boatwright
Cynthia Prince

Parametric Analysis Overview
Anthony Demarco
Steve Glogoza

This introductory session provides an overview of the parametric estimating technique. Parametric estimating develops cost estimates based upon the examination and validation of the relationships which exist between a project’s technical, programmatic, and cost characteristics as well as the resources consumed during its development, manufacture, maintenance, and/or modification. Attendees will learn the key ideas, primary analytical constructs, practical applications, and applicable commercial-off-the-shelf tools.

Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs)
Anthony DeMarco

Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) are critical to cost analysis. At the most basic level, CERs are mathematical expressions developed using historical cost and technical data to relate cost with other independent variables. This module provides key definitions, describes the CER development process and significance tests. A walkthrough of notional CERs will be provided, including an example of basic CER creation. The module ends with a discussion of validation and advanced topics, including calibration.

Regression Linear
Remmie Arnold
Peter Braxton

This session covers the linear regression subset of Module 08 Regression Analysis of CEBoK. Upon completion of this session, the student will be able to: 1) Determine the linear regression equation for a bivariate data set using ordinary least squares (OLS); 2) Calculate appropriate statistics related to the linear regression and use them to determine goodness of fit and statistical significance of the model: and 3) Use these mathematical modeling techniques to create Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from provided normalized data.

Regression Nonlinear and Multivariate
David Harris

Upon completion of this session, the student will be able to: 1)Apply logarithmic transformations to enable the determination of best fit using OLS for data exhibiting power, exponential, or logarithmic functional forms; 2) Determine the linear regression equation for a multivariate data set using ordinary least squares (OLS); 3) Calculate appropriate statistics use them to determine goodness of fit and statistical significance of the model; and 4) Use these mathematical modeling techniques to create Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from provided normalized data.

Regression Multiplicative
Herve Joumier

Development of CERs has, in the past, been based on explicit solutions of the OLS Y = a+bX+E, where E is a Gaussian additive error term or the logarithmic transform of Y=aX^b*E. Applying “general-error” regression allows to determine the optimal coefficients for any curve shape and to choose the error model. This tutorial focuses on development of CERs having multiplicative (i.e., percentage) errors.

CER Risk and S-Curves
Chris Price
Christian Smart

This training session compares S-Curves generated using standard errors of the estimate (SEE’s), confidence intervals (CI’s), and prediction invervals (PI’s), arguing for PI’s as the appropriate technique. It is shown how and why SEE-based techniques, while commonly used, almost always underestimate both risk and uncertainty. Finally, we provide a step-by-step guide on how to generate PI-based S-curves, with the mathematical intuition behind each step.

Complex Models Company-Developed
Chris Price

“Company Developed Complex Models” covers the material in Chapter 4 of the Parametric Estimating Handbook (PEH), which describes a proven ten-step approach for developing a multi-CER cost prediction model from historic data. The handbook defines a “company-developed” model as a special-purpose model, typically developed by an organization for a specific platform or product. A brief comparison of the GAO Cost Estimating Process and the PEH approach is also provided.

Complex Models Hardware
David Bloom

The Complex Hardware Models session (PT08) of the ICEAA Parametric training track provides a short history of complex model parametric estimating and continues with an overview, examples and recommendations to develop Basis of Estimates (BOE for Rough Order Magnitude (ROMs), Business Case Analysis, and Proposals. Best practices and lessons learned from the Parametric Estimating Reinvention Laboratory and personal experience provide insight into practical applications and limitations of the toolsets.

Other Parametric Applications
John Swaren

Other Parametric Applications covers the material in Chapter 8 of the Parametric Estimating Handbook (PEH) This training will address what to consider when developing and implementing parametric estimating tools. We will also give descriptions of general and specialized applications where parametric tools can be used. We will show examples of where and how these techniques have been implemented.