Posted by Trouble With the Curve: Engineering Changes and Manufacturing Learning Curves
From the Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics: Volume 12 | Issue 1 | January 2025
Downloadable File: JCAPv12i1-TroubleWiththeCurve-Johnstone
Abstract: Engineering changes pose a dilemma for estimators: If learning curves assume cost improvement due to repetitive build, what happens when that repetition is interrupted by a change of task? Design changes are common occurrences, but rarely addressed in learning curve literature. This paper addresses how to analyze an engineering change by breaking it into its pieces and outlines techniques to calculate the reversionary impact on the learning curve to derive the estimated cost of change.
Author: Brent Johnstone is a Lockheed Martin Fellow and production air vehicle cost estimator at Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company in Fort Worth, Texas. He has 35 years’ experience in the military aircraft industry, including 32 years as a cost estimator. He has worked on the F-16 program and has been most recently the lead Production Operations cost estimator for the F-35 program. He has a Master of Science from Texas A&M University and a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Texas at Austin.