Estimating Cost and Schedule of Reliability Improvement

Posted by

Estimating Cost and Schedule of Reliability Improvement

Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics

Downloadable Files


We extend a well-established model of reliability growth in a reliability improvement program, the Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity Maturity Projection Model (AMPM), to include a model of the program’s cost. We show how the extended model may be used to plan cost-optimal or schedule-optimal integrated programs of reliability improvement and testing, from early design through developmental and operational testing, and illustrate the process with an example from an actual program.


Dr. David A. Lee was educated at the University of Missouri, Brown University, and the Illinois Institute of Technology and is an applied mathematician with nearly 50 years’ experience. From 1985 through 1993 he was Director of the Operations Research/Procurement Planning Division in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), under the Assistant Secretary, Program Analysis and Evaluation. In this position he directed operations of the staff of the OSD Cost Analysis Improvement Group (OSD CAIG—now CAPE), which is DoD’s chief advisory body on costs of defense programs. Prior to joining OSD, Dr. Lee was Head of the Department of Mathematics and Computer Science at the Air Force Institute of Technology. He is author or co-author of more than 30 archival publications and of “The Cost Analyst’s Companion,” a widely used reference.

Mr. E. Andrew Long has 30 years of experience in a broad range of systems analysis problems in performance and suitability. He has led or participated in several efforts to help programs address supportability problems during all acquisition and operations and support phases. He has also performed theoretical and applied studies of reliability and availability of systems to assess logistics vulnerabilities and footprint. Recent work includes suitability cost realism analysis for the Coast Guard’s Integrated Deepwater System. He performed reliability and logistics footprint modeling and analysis for the Army’s Future Combat Systems’ Reliability, Availability Maintainability and Testability programs. His current work is directed toward policy, programs and tools needed to assure cost-effective suit-ability of weapon systems. Mr. Long has an undergraduate degree in Mathematics from New Mexico State University and a graduate degree in Logistics Management from the Air Force Institute of Technology.