#### ICEAA Certification Program Overview

As budgets shrink and the interest in cost analysis grows across government and private sectors, the demand for qualified cost professionals is increasing accordingly. ICEAA’s certification program is dedicated to assuring government, commercial and academic employers that certified practitioners are sufficiently competent to develop credible cost estimate and perform valid cost analyses. This interactive session presents the Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (CCEA®) and Professional Cost Estimator/Analyst (PCEA®) eligibility and certification requirements, the application process and examination procedures, exam topics and training materials (e.g., study-group sessions at the national Professional Development and Training Workshop, CEBoK® offerings), the CCEA Recertification Program, and the latest plans for additional certifications and specialty designations in areas such as Parametric Methods.

#### Cost Estimating Basic Track

**Track Chairs**: Marc J. Stephenson, Melissa Winter

**Cost Estimating Basics** (CEB01)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Ted Mills

Tom Dauber

The Cost Estimating Overview session introduces the basics of cost estimating and analysis and the reasons for doing cost estimates. Additionally, the motivation for cost estimating, why and how it is used, and an overview of the challenges and issues will be presented. Cost estimating products will be reviewed and a general overview of the process and methods used to develop cost estimates will be discussed, providing the background information and fundamental knowledge needed for the other CEB sessions.

**Cost Estimating Techniques** (CEB02)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Patrick K. Malone

Christina Snyder

This module introduces four essential cost estimating techniques that practitioners most often use to develop credible and realistic estimates. They are analogy, parametric, build-up, and extrapolation from actuals. We explain how to use these techniques, compare and contrast them to provide flexibility when estimating. Moreover, each technique has strengths and weaknesses, varying degrees of applicability at different times during a program’s life cycle and different levels of fidelity required for an estimate. Last, we discuss related topics such as schedule and operations & support estimating.

**Data Collection** (CEB03)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Christina Snyder

This session covers the Core Knowledge section of Module 04 Data Collection of CEBoK. All estimating techniques and cost estimating models require credible data before they can be used effectively. In this module we will discuss the various types of data, processes needed to collect and analyze the data used in parametric applications, as well as data types, sources, and adjustment techniques.

**INflation** (CEB04)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Blaze Smallwood

Brian Flynn

This session covers the Core Knowledge section of Module 05 Inflation and Index Numbers of CEBoK. Proper inflation analysis is essential to the success of any cost estimate or economic analysis. Calculating inflation correctly and understanding the fundamental concepts will enable you to produce cost estimates that are timely, accurate, and credible to support your program’s lifecycle needs. It will also empower you to communicate with key stakeholders on the need to adjust your financial estimates based on changes in the economy.

**Data Analysis** (CEB05)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Cassie Capots

Lavanya Yeleswarapu

This session discusses the first analytical steps to take after obtaining a set of cost data, with a particular emphasis on techniques for displaying and analyzing data graphically. It addresses univariate, bivariate, and multivariate data sets, with a focus on statistical analysis of univariate data sets and graphical analysis of bivariate data sets via scatter plots. It introduces measures of central tendency, measures of variability, and measures of uncertainty, such as confidence and prediction intervals.

**Learning Curve Analysis** (CEB06)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Remmie Arnold

Peter Braxton

This is a training track presentation of the CEBoK Module 7 (Learning Curves). The presentation will cover the key ideas, analytical constructs and applications of the learning curve module. The target audience are those preparing to take the ICEAA certification exam. Beyond the theoretical information, we will present the study questions for Module 7 with steps required to solve the problems using only a calculator as is required on the certification exam.

**Risk Analysis Basic** (CEB07)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Alex Wekluk

Christian Smart

This session will provide motivation for the need for risk analysis and introduce the basic types and uses of risk. It will focus on the practical execution of the general risk analysis process: (1) Develop a point estimate; (2) Identify the risk areas in the point estimate; (3) Determine uncertainty around the point estimate; (4) Apply correlation between uncertainty distributions; (5) Run the Monte Carlo simulation; (6) Assess the reasonableness of results; (7) Calculate, allocate, and phase risk dollars; and (8) Show the results.

**Prob/Stat Basic** (CEB08)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Tim Anderson

Stacy Dean

This will be a review of statistical and probability concepts relevant to cost estimation and uncertainty. Topics will include statistics; measures of central tendency; measures of dispersion; and important probability distributions and their linkage to cost estimates. We also introduce the concept of a random variable; Monte Carlo simulation; the Inverse CDF method; and thoughts on the differences between the normal and lognormal distributions. Finally, we discuss hypothesis testing and its relationship to cost estimating.

**Software Cost Estimating** (CEB09)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Arlene Minkiewicz,

Blaze Smallwood

This session will convey the principles of this critical area of specialized cost estimating. It addresses the basics of software development and some of the things to look out for in software estimating, and includes specific examples of applying software estimating techniques. The presentation will walk through examples of how to approach a software cost estimate using a number of estimating relationships and ideas, commercial models that can be used to construct estimates, and various methods of software development.

**Economic Analysis Basic** (CEB10)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Kammy Mann

This session will provide an introduction to the basic concepts of earned value management (EVM), with a focus on practical application in support of a project or program. Specific topics will include basic EVM components and data elements, as well as standard earned value analysis techniques. A sample case study will be introduced and built upon throughout the session to demonstrate and reinforce these basic principles of EVM.

**Contract Pricing** (CEB11)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Sriram Krishnan

Derreck Ross

This session explores the basics of contract pricing and the roles of cost estimating in the process. In this session, we explore the various contract types, and the factors and considerations related to choosing a contract type. We also explore how fee is calculated, and how risk is shared between the government and the vendor. We will also look at the Uniform Contract Structure and its sections as well as the cost-price proposal preparation and evaluation efforts.

**EVM Basic** (CEB12)

Cost Estimating Basics Training Track

Joel Little

Derreck Ross

This session will provide an introduction to the basic concepts of earned value management (EVM), with a focus on implementation, governance, and practical application in support of a project or program. Specific topics will include basic EVM components and data elements, as well as standard earned value analysis techniques. We use a simple, easy to follow example problem throughout the presentation to demonstrate and reinforce the basic principles of EVM.

#### Cost Estimating Advanced Track

**Track Chairs**: Praful Patel, Cynthia Prince

**GAO Cost Assessment Guide** (CEA01)

Cost Estimating Advanced Training Track

Karen Richey

Jennifer Leotta

In March 2009, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) published, GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, Best Practices for Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs. The guide was developed to establish a consistent methodology based on best practices and that can be used across the federal government for developing, managing, and evaluating capital program cost estimates. This training will introduce the twelve-step process, describe the characteristics and contents of a high quality estimate, and illustrate the application of the guide to GAO assessments.

**Technical Baselines** (CEA02)

Cost Estimating Advanced Training Track

Jason Dechoretz

Greg Hogan

Understanding the technical and programmatic issues of the program/product you are estimating is key to developing a good cost estimate. This session discusses what information you need to baseline the technical and programmatic aspects of the program, the questions that need to be asked to ensure a clear understanding and how these issues translate into a cost perspective.

**Cost and Software Data Reports** (CEA04)

Cost Estimating Advanced Training Track

James Parnham

Marc Stephenson

This training session will give an overview of Cost and Software Data Reports (CSDRs) and how they can be employed to facilitate the development of better and more credible cost estimates. The instructors will address how CSDR data is planned, collected, stored, and made available to the DoD cost community. They will illustrate the unique benefit of CSDR data and how it can be leveraged by the government to make more informed decisions when building cost estimates.

** Risk Analysis Advanced** (CEA05)

Cost Estimating Advanced Training Track

Greg Hogan

Amanda Wilson

This session will delve into advanced topics in risk, including a short and entertaining refresher on basic cost risk analysis. We will perform an analysis of historical risk data by studying the effect of program size on cost / schedule growth and how we can use this information in our risk analysis. This session covers the Related and Advanced Topics section of Module 09 Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of CEBoK.

**Monte Carlo Simulations** (CEA06)

Cost Estimating Advanced Training Track

Stacy Dean

Monte Carlo simulations are the most commonly used tool for performing risk analysis. This training will walk through a brief history of Monte Carlo simulations, from their use in evaluating Pi, through their application on the Manhattan project. The bulk of the training will be an interactive demonstration where the instructor will walk attendees through how to create a Monte Carlo simulation manually in Excel (using a few lines of Visual Basic coding). The simulation will be run and the results analyzed in real-time to provide attendees a deeper understanding of where S-Curves come from and how to interpret them.

**Probability Distributions for Risk** (CEA07)

Christian Smart

Alex Wekluk

Cost Estimating Advanced builds on the topics covered in Cost Estimating Basic. Topics addressed include: understanding the shape of a distribution and how it is related to that distribution’s parameters; alternative specification of distributions, such as by any two of a central point (mean, median, and/or mode), a coefficient of variation (CV), and a percentile; correction of distributions for understatement of both mean and CV; and useful rules of thumb for characterizing distributions.

**Economic Analysis Advanced** (CEA11)

Cost Estimating Advanced Training Track

Marc Greenberg

This course follows a similar methodology presented in CEB10 Economic Analysis Basic, but includes additional examples on how to: (1) depict incremental cash flow diagrams, (2) account for non-monetary benefits and (3) use the content from a cash flow diagram to calculate Net Present Value (NPV) and Equivalent Uniform Annual Worth (EUAW). This course concludes with an example and discussion on how to select the preferred alternative based upon not one but three economic measures-of-merit.

#### Parametric Track

**Track Chairs**: Diane Butler, Brian Flynn

**Parametric Analysis Overview** (PAR01)

Parametric Training Track

Arlene Minkiewicz, Chris Price

This introductory session provides an overview of the parametric estimating technique. Parametric estimating develops cost estimates based upon the examination and validation of the relationships which exist between a project’s technical, programmatic, and cost characteristics as well as the resources consumed during its development, manufacture, maintenance, and/or modification. Attendees will learn the key ideas, primary analytical constructs, practical applications, and applicable commercial-off-the-shelf tools.

**Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs)** (PAR02)

Parametric Training Track

Chris Price

Anthony DeMarco

Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) are critical to cost analysis. At the most basic level, CERs are mathematical expressions developed using historical cost and technical data to relate cost with other independent variables. This module provides key definitions, describes the CER development process and significance tests. A walkthrough of notional CERs will be provided, including an example of basic CER creation. The module ends with a discussion of validation and advanced topics, including calibration.

**Regression Linear** (PAR03)

Parametric Training Track

Peter J. Braxton

This session covers the linear regression subset of Module 08 Regression Analysis of CEBoK. Upon completion of this session, the student will be able to: 1) Determine the linear regression equation for a bivariate data set using ordinary least squares (OLS); 2) Calculate appropriate statistics related to the linear regression and use them to determine goodness of fit and statistical significance of the model: and 3) Use these mathematical modeling techniques to create Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from provided normalized data.

**Regression Nonlinear/Multivariate** (PAR04)

Parametric Training Track

Brian Flynn

Adam James

This CEBoK module presents an overview of the basic techniques of multiple regression analysis – how they work, what they assume, and how they may go awry when key assumptions don’t hold. Coverage includes tests of significance, analysis of variance, confidence and prediction intervals, transformations of non-linear models, and the basics of multicollinearity, serial correlation, and heteroscedasticity. In a special treat, Adam & Brian will lead the group in using regression analysis to forecast the winner of the 2016 presidential election!

**CER Risk and S-Curves** (PAR06)

Parametric Training Track

Christian Smart

Marc Greenberg

This session focuses on how to assess three sources of risk for CERs derived from regression: input uncertainty, model uncertainty and external factors. The session introduces formulae of the standard error of the estimate (SEE), confidence interval (CI), and prediction interval (PI), then illustrates error bands and S-curves generated from these formulae. SEE, CI and PI are compared to include how and why SEE-based techniques (while commonly used) almost always underestimate risk and uncertainty.

**Complex Models Company-Developed** (PAR07)

Parametric Training Track

Chris Price

Company Developed Complex Models covers the material in Chapter 4 of the Parametric Estimating Handbook (PEH), which describes a proven ten-step approach for developing a multi-CER cost prediction model from historic data. The handbook defines a “company-developed” model as a special-purpose model, typically developed by an organization for a specific platform or product. A brief comparison of the GAO Cost Estimating Process and the PEH approach is also provided.

**Complex Models Hardware** (PAR08)

Parametric Training Track

David Bloom, Greg Kiviat

The Complex Hardware Models session of the ICEAA Parametric training track provides a short history of complex model parametric estimating and continues with an overview, examples and recommendations to develop Basis of Estimates (BOE for Rough Order Magnitude (ROMs), Business Case Analysis, and Proposals. Best practices and lessons learned from the Parametric Estimating Reinvention Laboratory and personal experience provide insight into practical applications and limitations of the toolsets.

#### Integration Track

**Track Chairs**: James Parnham, Derreck Ross

**Basic Schedule Analysis** (INT01)

Integration Training Track

Justin Hornback

Examination of Program performance continues to identify the development and monitoring of program schedules as a weakness in programs that do not meet technical, cost, and schedule goals. This workshop presentation will cover scheduling basics, desired attributes of a valid project schedules, and basic schedule analysis techniques important to programmatic and cost estimator analysts. Schedule analysis tools and techniques will include, but are not limited to, three point estimates and basic schedule risk analysis.

**Advanced Schedule Analysis** (INT02)

Integration Training Track

Justin Hornback

This workshop will build on topics covered by Basic Schedule Analysis, expanding into the detailed process to conduct schedule analysis. Topics include common schedule analysis metrics and how to use them to analyze a schedule. Using an Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) to create an analysis schedule and employing schedule risk analysis with resource/cost loading to build the framework for Joint (Cost and Schedule) Confidence Level (JCL) creation.

**Schedule Risk Analysis** (INT03)

Integration Training Track

David Hulett

Project scheduling is only the start of understanding when your project will finish. This workshop shows how simulating uncertain durations allow the user to determine how much overrun there might be at different target levels of certainty. We introduce the Risk Driver method of driving the Monte Carlo simulations using the risks usually found starting from the Risk Register. We then prioritize the risks for effective risk mitigation.

**Joint Cost and Schedule Risk** (INT04)

Integration Training Track

David Hulett

Project scheduling is only the start of understanding when your project will finish. This workshop shows how simulating uncertain durations allow the user to determine how much overrun there might be at different target levels of certainty. We introduce the Risk Driver method of driving the Monte Carlo simulations using the risks usually found starting from the Risk Register. We then prioritize the risks for effective risk mitigation.

**Contracts Risk/RCA** (INT05)

Integration Training Track

Peter Braxton

This session will present cost estimating and risk analysis as tools to aid in facing contract management challenges. This session is adapted from “Cost Estimating and Risk Analysis as Tools for Contract Management,” twice presented at the Government Contract Management Conference (GCMC), sponsored by sister society National Contract Management Association (NCMA). It also draws from “Analysis of Large O&S Proposals: Lessons Learned,” presented at ICEAA 2013.

**Cost Management** (INT06)

Integration Training Track

Tom Dauber

This session provides an introduction to cost management, discussing tools and techniques currently in use by leading-edge organizations, the role of cost estimating/analysis, and the related discipline of Cost As an Independent Variable (CAIV). Cost management takes a holistic approach, incorporating cost considerations into the overall management approach, and together with other measures of performance, help lead to decisions that provide optimal value to organizations and customers, be they shareholders, consumers, or warfighters.

**Target Costing and Trades** (INT09)

Integration Training Track

John Deem

This session prepares cost analysts for an affordability assignment on an integrated product team supporting trade studies that drive designs to a target cost by applying design-to-cost, reduction-of-total-ownership-cost and activity based costing techniques. Content is derived from CEBoK© Module 16, Cost Management.

**Integrated Baseline Review** (INT13)

Integration Training Track

Joel Little

The Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) process provides a framework for the discussions that aid in understanding the resource adequacy and, risks and opportunities within a program. This session will address team member roles, preparation, execution and closeout of the IBR. IBR preparation, including guidance, review content, entrance and exit criteria, training and lessons learned are discussed.

**GAO Schedule Assessment Guide** (INT14)

Integration Training Track

Karen Richey

Jennifer Leotta

In December 2015, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) published, GAO Schedule Assessment Guide. The guide was developed as a companion to the GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide as a cost estimate cannot be considered credible if it does not account for the cost effects of schedule slippage. The Schedule Assessment Guide develops scheduling concepts and presents them as ten best practices associated with developing and maintaining a reliable, high-quality schedule and illustrates the application of the guide to GAO assessments.

**Solution Based Cost Estimation for Software** (INT15)

Integration Training Track

Eric van der Vliet

Estimation of software is often seen as a separate activity that is performed at the moment that the software solution has been defined. These estimates are regularly under pressure to be able to achieve a better market price. Alignment of architecture and (cost) estimation processes is critical to make a project successful. Solution Based (Cost) Estimation explains how to achieve this alignment and will show based on an software package implementation and an interactive session the benefits from an architecture, sales and project management perspective.