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Analysis Schedules: Danger at a Higher Level

Risk I Track



Background: A government organization charged with evaluating the adequacy of schedule and funding of large projects using project provided schedules and cost estimates receives a detailed (~2000 line) schedule capable of analysis with limited modification or summation. Analysis conducted using detailed schedule revealed interesting results when compared with high level schedule used in previous evaluations of the same project when a detailed analysis was not available.

This presentation shares the experience of examining a detailed versus summary analysis schedule from an independent evaluation viewpoint. The presentation also discusses the issues identified comparing the two schedules and the impact on end analysis products like Joint Confidence Levels (JCL), reserve projections, etc. The presentation also includes a discussion of Monte Carlo risk and uncertainty implications revealed during the evaluation of the detailed schedule that employed extremely short durations, less than one day.


Justin Hornback
Reed Integration, Inc.
Justin Hornback is program manager of Reed Integration, Inc.’s support of NASA’s Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO), within the Office of Evaluation (OoE), enabling the independent review of NASA’s program and project life-cycle milestones to ensure the highest probability of mission success within schedules and budgets. Prior to joining Reed Integration, Inc., Justin provided program management, cost estimating, and technical support for various US Navy small boat programs (SEALION, Stiletto) and risk management for multiple NASA programs (IRVE-3, SPLASH, Environmental Responsible Aviation) through his work at Booz Allen. He co-led a risk and cost management effort to identify, analyze, and report risks to Aircraft Carriers deployment schedules and Air-wing integration. Prior to work at Booz Allen Hamilton, Justin was the overhaul risk manager during refueling complex overhaul (RCOH) of Nimitz Class Aircraft Carriers at Huntington Ingalls Industries, Newport News Shipbuilding. As the risk manager, Justin was responsible for identifying, managing, and mitigating program risks that threatened the ability of the RCOH program to achieve cost, schedule, and technical performance objectives. Prior to being the risk manager, Justin qualified and performed duties of a shift refueling engineer, such as directing operations during removal, handling, and installation of nuclear fuel during refueling of Aircraft Carriers and submarines.
Justin Hornback received his Bachelor of Science degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Virginia in 2002. He obtained his MBA from the College of William and Mary in 2010. He is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (CCEA) and Project Management Professional (PMP).
Justin resides in Norfolk, VA with his wife Becky, and their two year old daughter Anna. He enjoys running, watching college football, and playing soccer.