Joint Confidence Level Analysis and the Dynamic Integrated Cost Estimator (DICE) Model
Since 2006, NASA has been leading the way in the establishment of Joint Confidence Level (JCL) guidance and the integration of cost and schedule estimation. Recently, in response to the standardization of NASA JCL policy, Booz Allen Hamilton identified the need for and developed a comprehensive model to further enable this technique. The Dynamic Integrated Cost Estimator (DICE) model prototype is Booz Allen’s initial response to NASA’s emerging area of JCL analysis. Constructed on an Adobe Flex platform and based off the firm’s Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Methodology, DICE is customized to program needs for answering the challenging questions posed by the JCL policy mandate. DICE is a flexible and intuitive user environment for rapid and highly interactive analysis performed in real time. The model is not meant to supplant day-to-day use of industry-standard cost estimating and scheduling tools, but rather DICE is a targeted development effort to construct a JCL engine for the purpose of meeting NASA’s core JCL objectives. Innovations in cost, schedule, and risk correlation, as well as achieving simulation runtimes that were previously unattainable by other tools are just a few of the features that distinguish DICE in this arena.
The visualization, interactive features, and simulation engine of DICE will supply NASA with the necessary tools for more effective analysis in less time. As program managers desire to establish more realistic budgets and schedules across the industry, the DICE analytic environment will serve as a key component for greatly increasing the accuracy, usability and appeal of JCL analysis.
Booz Allen Hamilton
Graham Gilmer is a Lead Associate at Booz Allen Hamilton with six years of experience supporting the Department of Defense and other US government agencies. He graduated from Stanford University in 2005 with a Bachelor’s of Science in Management Science and Engineering. Within Booz Allen Hamilton, Graham is a member of the Advanced Analytics team in Arlington, VA that is a leading provider of Capabilities-Based Analysis to the DoD. At SCEA, he is presenting a review of Joint Confidence Level analysis and demonstrating Booz Allen’s Dynamic Integrated Cost Estimator (DICE) model as developed for NASA Cost Analysis Division. This prototype model was developed in 2011 to streamline and standardize JCL analysis for NASA programs. He has recently been the modeling lead for the US Navy Design for Affordability project, focusing on developing strategies for reducing total ownership cost within Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs). The team’s efforts were honored with a company-wide Booz Allen Excellence Award for Innovation. Graham has also led a project for OSD-Policy that developed and executed a bilateral assessment on US-Japan airpower, yielding results that were briefed across both governments.
Booz Allen Hamilton
Colin Smith is an Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton’s Advanced Analytics Team. He has a background in software engineering, artificial intelligence and cost modeling. He has performed the role of lead software engineer on past projects including a resource transition model for BRAC moves and a cost modeling and data visualization effort for the US Navy Design for Affordability project, for which the team was recognized with a company-wide Booz Allen Excellence Award for Innovation. His research interests include artificial intelligence in general and more specifically evolutionary algorithms and swarm intelligence. At SCEA, he is presenting a review of Joint Confidence Level analysis and demonstrating Booz Allen’s Dynamic Integrated Cost Estimator (DICE) model as developed for NASA Cost Analysis Division. Colin received a B.S. in Computer Science, Summa Cum Laude, and a M.S. in Computer Science from the Georgia Institute of Technology.