Joint Cost Schedule Model(JCSM) – Recent AFCAA Efforts to Assess Integrated Cost and Schedule Analysis
The Space Division of Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) supports Air Force (AF) and Department of Defense (DoD) Major Space Acquisition programs by providing thorough, effective, independent cost estimates (ICEs) and conducting special studies for decision makers. Recently AFCAA has initiated a research task to assess the potential for developing a joint cost-schedule model and the usability of the model.
This presentation will provide insight and share preliminary findings and observations of the research effort to discover a joint cost and schedule modeling methodology for parametric and analogy based space system cost and schedule estimates. The preliminary results will address the total spacecraft level. The focus of the presentation is on parametrics and a process that complements current AFCAA estimating techniques. The presentation will discuss prior concepts identified by the industry and provide insight into the key enabling parameters for joining cost and schedule distributions. Furthermore, there will be a discussion on how the integrated cost/schedule analysis can be used by decision makers to make informed decisions about funding levels that are consistent with realistic program schedules.
Tecolote Research, Inc.
Mr. Rippe graduated from the Inter American University of Puerto Rico with a B.S. in Applied Mathematics. He is employed by Tecolote Research, Inc as an Advanced Analyst for Tecolote’s NASA Project Support Consulting group. Since 2005, Mr. Rippe has actively been teaching cost estimating, statistical analysis, and risk modeling for a wide variety of customers (USCG, Navy, USAF, and NASA). Since 2008, he has been actively involved with NASA in supporting cost risk analysis and integrated cost/schedule risk analysis to support NASA’s Joint Cost Level (JCL) policy. He has won awards from NASA, ranging from Cost Team of the Year to various Awards of Excellence.
Air Force Cost Analysis Agency
Mr. Hogan is currently the Senior Technical Expert for space systems at the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. In this capacity, he directly participates in the formulation of cost estimates at the Space Division and leads various research projects targeting cost estimating deficiencies in Space Community. His unique position provides him the flexibility to partner with other Agencies; e.g., DNI, NRO, NASA, and Navy; to ensure methods, research, and data are keeping up with emerging technology and acquisition improvements, e.g., WSARA and EASE. Mr. Hogan graduated from Penn State University, receiving a BS degree in Industrial Engineering and then earned a MS degree in Systems Engineering from Virginia Tech. He is a recognized instructor of cost estimating & analysis to audiences from the Department of Defense (DoD), Intelligence Community (IC), NASA, and Industry. He has published a number of papers on topics such as Technical Baseline Assessments and Class A/C Satellites. As a recognized leader in the cost / risk estimating domain, he is also an active member of the Joint Space Cost Council (JSCC) and the GAO cost expert panel.
Tecolote Research, Inc.
Mr. Elliott graduated from the University of California at Los Angeles with a B.S. in Electrical Engineering and from California State University at Dominguez Hills with an MBA. He is employed by Tecolote Research, Inc as the Operations Manager for Tecolote’s NASA Project Support Consulting group. Since 1992, Mr. Elliott has actively been teaching cost estimating, statistical analysis, and risk modeling for a wide variety of customers (Army, USCG, Navy, USMC, USAF, and NASA). Since 2005, he has been actively involved with NASA in supporting cost risk analysis and integrated cost/schedule risk analysis to support NASA’s Joint Cost Level (JCL) policy. In late 2008, Mr. Elliott was the lead analyst to develop a methodology and build a proof-of-concept for NASA to conduct JCL analysis. He has won multiple awards from NASA, ranging from Cost Team of the Year to various Awards of Excellence, and most recently NASA’s Support Contractor of the Year.