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The Shortcut to Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel Analysis

Management Track

MT22_Presentation_ShortcuttoFully BurdenedCostofFuelAnalysis_Atkins


Frequent attacks against resupply convoys, along with their growth in both length and size, have caused the Department of Defense to investigate ways of shrinking the military’s logistics tail. A large logistics tail impedes the mobility, flexibility, and concealment of tactical forces and grows with fuel demand. The DoD is aiming to reduce fuel demand by integrating energy-based analysis of alternatives into the early stages of systems acquisition. An analytic capability that measures fuel delivery costs and assesses the value of investments in efficiency is needed to evaluate competing alternatives.
The objective of this research was to demonstrate an approach toward conducting fully burdened cost of fuel (FBCF) analysis for aerial refueling missions using an activity-based, parametric calculator. The parametric model, Total Price Of Fueling Forces (ToPOFF), was used in the analysis. ToPOFF calculates the total cost of personnel, infrastructure, protection, and commodity associated with moving fuel from the point of sale to the end user for each service and for a broad range of fuel delivery and escort systems. ToPOFF was used to analyze historical data of all aerial refueling sorties flown by the 340th Expeditionary Aerial Refueling Squadron between 2007 and 2009. Results identified potential for multi-million dollar cost avoidance with replacement of the aging tanker fleet with next generation tankers. This body of work can serve as both the basis for setting the value of energy efficiency key performance parameters and as the discriminator for pre-milestone B decision making and tradeoff analysis.


Kristopher Atkins
Kris Atkins is a leading expert within Boeing in fully burdened cost of fuel analysis, with a patent pending fuel delivery costing methodology and calculator, co-author credit on a winning proposal for next generation air dominance aircraft systems, and ongoing collaborative efforts with DoD energy policy experts.

Kris works as a cost and operational effectiveness analyst within the Flight and Systems Technology program at Boeing Research & Technology in Huntington Beach, California. His experiences within Boeing have covered a range of research topics including probabilistic design of hypersonic vehicles, life-cycle analysis of alternative fuels for aviation, and fully burdened cost of fuel analysis. Prior to joining Boeing, he earned his master’s degree in aerospace engineering at Georgia Tech where he built a technical expertise in advanced decision making and multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization.

Currently, Kris is developing parametric models capable of applying fully burdened cost of fuel methodology to various modes of fuel delivery and performing analysis that will shape the development of logistics tail and energy KPPs as well as vehicle design selection criteria.

Richard Cline
Having graduated from the United States Naval Academy in 1980, Richard “Rick” Cline became a helicopter pilot in the United States Marine Corps. Upon leaving the USMC in 1987, Rick joined the Boeing Company where he continues to work and mentor young Affordability and Operations Analysts. In his 24 years, Rick has worked on launch vehicles, space, maritime, aircraft, and ground-based systems. In the last five years, his work has been directed towards optimizing the cost-effectiveness of large system-of-systems type problems as well as influencing policies and procedures related to the affordability of government acquisitions.