Overcoming Challenges in Estimating Advanced Technology Programs
During the Source Selection process, many different types of cost estimating are required by both the Source Selection Board (Government) and the Contractor (Performer). This includes analysis such as Cost Realism, Analysis of Alternatives, Ghosting the Competition and Growth Estimating. Often times, both Government and Contractors have no consistent, repeatable and traceable way of performing these types of analysis. This leads to poor and/or inconsistent decision making during the Source Selection process. However, using parametric methods, these types of analysis are easily accomplished in a fraction of the time of traditional methods.
This presentation will discuss and demonstrate best practices for using parametric cost estimating methods for long range, advanced technology under uncertainty. One key question often asked is how commercially available parametric models can accurately predict the costs of advanced technology ten or more years into the future. We will discuss the difficulty of analyzing and estimating costs for advanced technology systems in relation to mature systems were cost history exists. We will also discuss the need for data driven parametric estimating and the importance of developing cost estimating relationships based on actual cost data.
Zachary Jasnoff is a Solutions Architect Director for PRICE Systems, LLC. Headquartered in Mt. Laurel, New Jersey, PRICE Systems provides advanced modeling software and expert professional services to government agencies and corporations throughout the United States and around the globe.
Mr. Jasnoff has over 25 years experience in Life Cycle Cost estimating on a wide range of defense programs and is an acknowledged expert in Affordability Management. Mr. Jasnoff began his career at the United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) where he was responsible for independent audits and investigations of defense acquisition programs.
Mr. Jasnoff then broadened his career in parametric lifecycle estimating while serving in various positions at Boeing, PRICE Systems (mid-1990’s) and Lockheed-Martin. At Lockheed-Martin he was responsible for managing the Affordability Analysis group, and was the “Cost as an Independent Variable” (CAIV) author for the Littoral Combat Ship Proposal. He has won several awards from the International Society of Parametric Analysts (ISPA) for various presentations on CAIV and advanced estimating methodologies.
Prior to joining PRICE Systems, Mr. Jasnoff served as Vice President/Director of Business Resiliency at JPMorganChase. In this position, Mr. Jasnoff managed a staff responsible for developing new models for measuring resiliency, value-at-risk and Total Cost of Ownership.
Mr. Jasnoff is also a firm believer in lifelong learning and, in August 2006, received his M.S.E in Technology Management from Penn Engineering and The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. While at Wharton, Mr. Jasnoff was part of a team that developed intellectual property for the financial sector in Business Resiliency and Risk Management. He also holds an M.B.A from American University and B.A. from Villanova University.
Dr. Daniel A. Nussbaum
Naval Postgraduate School
Dr. DANIEL A. NUSSBAUM is a Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, in the Operations Research department, in Monterey, California, where he teaches cost estimating, does research, and mentors students.
He has been a Principal with Booz Allen Hamilton, Director, Naval Center for Cost Analysis, and has held other management and analysis positions with the US Army and Navy, in the US and in Europe.
He has a BA, in Mathematics and Economics from Columbia University, and a Ph.D., in Mathematics from Michigan State University. He has held post doctoral positions in Econometrics and Operations Research, and in National Security Studies at Washington State University and Harvard University.
He is active in professional societies, currently serving as the Past President of the Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis. He has previously been the VP of the Washington chapter of INFORMS, and he has served on the Board of the Military Operations Research Society.
He publishes and speaks regularly before professional audiences.
Finally, he is married, has two children and five grandchildren. He is a lap swimmer and a dedicated herb gardener.