Models and Methods Track
As organizations increasingly rely on complex analytics using simulation software in their decision making, an inescapable trade-off has arisen: The more robust the analysis, the longer it takes to use to make a decision. One of the primary reasons for this is the time required to run “excursion scenarios” using new or modified assumptions. Running these excursion scenarios often takes hours, requiring the scheduling of additional meetings before decisions can be made. And, since these scenarios are necessarily run outside of the meeting room, leadership is limited in the number of scenarios they can request.
RealTime Analytics™ (RTA) is a breakthrough technology developed by Booz Allen Hamilton to solve this problem by enabling certain types of Monte Carlo analyses to be re-run in real time. Benchmark analysis has demonstrated that RTA can achieve the same results as two of the most widely used business simulation tools, Oracle’s Crystal Ball and Palisade’s @Risk, with simulation run-times of under one second, even for very large models.
RTA’s capacity to run simulations in real-time presents a game-changing capability applicable to a broad range of disciplines including: cost and schedule analysis, risk management and earned value management. It gives decision makers the ability to run an unlimited number of excursion scenarios without ever leaving the meeting room. This enables efficient decision making; saving both time and money and enabling an organization to better accomplish its mission.
This presentation will describe RTA’s capabilities and provide demonstrations of its use in various functions within Excel including cost risk analysis, schedule risk analysis, JCL analysis and statistical analysis of large data sets.
Booz Allen Hamilton
Eric Druker, CCE/A, has 5 years experience performing cost and schedule risk analysis for a variety of clients across the DoD, Intelligence and Civil Arenas. He currently works as an Associate at Booz Allen Hamilton, acting as lead analyst on NASA’s Joint Confidence Level task order. Additionally, he serves as Intellectual Capital Lead for Booz Allen’s Applied Economic Analysis Community of Practice. A recognized industry expert in cost estimating and risk analysis, in 2009 Eric was named National Cost Estimator/Analyst of the Year for Technical Achievement by the Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA). As an author of over a dozen industry papers, including one best paper award, he is a nationally recognized expert in cost estimating and risk analysis and has been an invited presenter at the Department of Defense Cost Analysis Symposium (DoDCAS), Naval Postgraduate School’s Acquisition Research Symposium (NPSARS), Space Systems Cost Analysis Group (SSCAG) Meeting NASA’s Project Management Challenge and many other industry conferences. Mr. Druker graduated from the College of William and Mary with a B.S. in Applied Mathematics in 2005 concentrating in both Operations Research and Probability & Statistics with a minor in Economics.
Booz Allen Hamilton
Blake Boswell is a Consultant for Booz Allen Hamilton’s Business Analytics Team. He is a firm subject matter expert in the areas of quantitative risk analysis and Microsoft Excel development. Blake currently supports a variety of cost estimating projects for the USMC. He is the lead developer for multiple cost and risk estimating tools and is involved with efforts to advance the application of numerical methods to risk analysis. Blake’s research interests include applied probability, computational mathematics, and math modeling and simulation. He presented on the topic of risk analysis at the 2010 SCEA conference, and is a published author in the field of economics with papers involving computation of equilibriums in industrial organization models. Blake received a B.S. in mathematics with concentrations in statistics and economics from Auburn University Montgomery and is currently pursuing a master’s degree in applied economics at Johns Hopkins University.