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A Case Study in EAC Growth

EVM & Scheduling Track

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The responsibility for the reporting of EACs is well established, and the methods for prediction, as well as the shortcomings in those methods are well known. This should result in good EACs and a good sense of the risk in those EACs. Occasionally, however, growth of apparently totally unexpected scope occurs. Why does this happen, with all of our experience and all of our processes? This paper will describe the growth of several EACs from the original prediction through several snapshots of what was known and what was reported. The motivations for the difference between what was known and what was reported will be discussed with a view towards understanding why these apparent surprises happen.
Behavior at several levels inside the organization will be discussed in an attempt to explain how there is sometimes what has been called “a conspiracy of hope.”


Richard Coleman
TASC, Inc.
Richard L. Coleman is a Naval Academy graduate, received an M. S. with Distinction in Operations Research from the U. S. Naval Postgraduate School and retired from active duty as a Captain, USN, in 1993. His service included tours as Commanding Officer of USS Dewey (DDG 45), and as Director, Naval Center for Cost Analysis. At TASC and then Northrop Grumman, he worked extensively in cost, CAIV, and risk for the Missile Defence Agency (MDA), Navy ARO, the intelligence community, NAVAIR, and the DD(X) Design Agent team. He has supported numerous ship programs including the DDG 1000 class, DDG 51 class, Deepwater, LHD 8 and LHA 6, LPD 17 class, Virginia class SSNs, CVN 77, and CVN 78. He was the Director of Independent Cost Estimation for Northrop Grumman Information Systems and conducted Independent Cost Evaluations on Northrop Grumman programs. He is currently at TASC, Inc. as a Program Manager for cost and risk. He has more than 75 professional papers to his credit, including five ISPA/SCEA and SCEA Best Paper Awards and two ADoDCAS Outstanding Contributed Papers. He was a senior reviewer for CostPROF and CEBoK and lead author of the Risk Module. He has served as Regional and National Vice President of SCEA and is currently a Board Member. He received the SCEA Lifetime Achievement Award in 2008.