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Improving ERP Estimating in the DoD

Estimating Track

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AFCAA is pleased to present an abstract for an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) paper in two parts. The first part presents the results of several years of data collection and study of ERPs, with the intention of improving ERP estimating. The second part is a case study where AFCAA used this information to estimate a major ERP. AFCAA envisions this paper resulting in two presentations in the same track, one for each part.

Part 1 ­ ERP Studies
Five years ago at DODCAS, the cost agencies for the Air Force, Navy and Army gave two presentations on estimating DOD ERP projects which, at the time, were relatively new to DOD. The first presentation gave the state of affairs for DOD ERPs and ERP estimating, and the second presentation laid out a four point plan for improving ERP estimation. The first section of this paper will recap and update the first DODCAS presentation by reviewing the current state of DOD ERP cost estimating. The second section of this paper will present the significant progress the cost agencies have made on all four areas for improvement proposed in the second DODCAS presentation, and communicate that progress to the cost community. An important part of this progress has been the development of practical metrics of use to estimators. The third section of this paper will discuss some of the lessons learned. The fourth section will explore areas for future exploration.

This paper provides useful information to the cost estimating community. The service cost agencies expended great effort collecting this information, and relish the opportunity to provide these insights to the community, with the ultimate goal of cost analysis improvement for everyone.

Part 2 ­ ERP Case Study
AFCAA recently completed an estimate for a major ERP. The estimate used metrics derived from a recently completed ERP data collection, which was described in a companion paper on ERP estimating.
These metrics were part, but not all, of the picture of how this project was estimated. This case study will describe the process AFCAA used to estimate the project focusing on areas where an ERP estimate differs from a traditional software development estimate. The discussion will be organized by activity, providing metrics and estimating methodologies for each activity. Major ERP activities include Program Management, Development, Procurement, Training, Change Management and Deployment/Rollout. It will also address cost drivers for these activities.

This case study is meant to provide readers insight about estimating an ERP. AFCAA has some experience with these estimates and wants to share the lessons learned with the community and to solicit community feedback.


Wilson Rosa
Air Force Cost Analysis Agency
Wilson Rosa is a Technical Advisor with the Information Technology Division of the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA). Prior to joining AFCAA, Mr. Rosa worked at the Naval Sea Systems Command as a General Engineer where he was responsible for analyzing numerous major acquisition programs including Remote Mine Hunting System, Standard Missile Block IV, Cobra Judy Replacement, Naval Fires Network, and Area Air Defense Commander. Mr Rosa also spent 2 years with the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) as an Industrial Engineer. At NAWC, he prepared multiple budget requests and cost analyses for the V‐22 Osprey and T‐45 Goshawk project offices. Before joining NAWC, Mr. Rosa was an Engineering Director with Caguas Medical Center (Puerto Rico) where he was responsible for the safety, daily operations, and modernization of 13 regional hospitals.
Throughout his financial management career, Mr. Rosa has received numerous awards and accolades to include 2006 Civilian Cost Analyst of the Year, 2003 Comptroller Excellence Award from the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (SAF/FM), 2000 Procurement and Competition Excellence Award from the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (ASN/RDA), 2008 Comptroller Eagle Award, and 2003 Runner‐Up Civilian Cost Analyst of the Year from the American Society of Military Comptrollers.
Mr. Rosa has recently earned his PhD in Engineering Management at George Washington University
(GWU). In 2001, he earned his M.S. in Engineering Management from GWU. He majored in Mechanical Engineering, graduating in 1995 from the University of Puerto Rico.

Capt. Charles Silvanic
Air Force Cost Analysis Agency
Captain Charles Silvanic is an Automated Information Systems Cost Analyst, Air Force Cost Analysis Agency in Arlington, Virginia. He performs cost estimate studies and analyzes risk and uncertainty of information systems, programs and support activities.
He  began  his  Financial  Management  career  in  2000  at  Malmstrom  AFB,  MT,  where  he  served  as  the  Financial Services Officer for the 341st Space Wing. Captain Silvanic moved on to become Budget Officer at Dover AFB, DE in 2003. In 2005, he was hand‐picked to serve as the lone Financial Manager on the HQ AMC/A5 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) staff at Scott AFB, IL. In 2007, Captain Silvanic moved to the HQ AMC/FM staff in 2007 where he served as a Budget Analyst. He was then selected to participate in the AFIT Education With Industry program for the 2008‐2009 term. He served his tour at the Microsoft Corporation Headquarters in Redmond, Washington.
Captain Silvanic earned his M.B.A. from Cameron University, Oklahoma in 2001 and his Bachelor of Arts in English from the State University of New York College at Oswego and a 2001. He and his wife Alyssa live in Springfield, Virginia with their two sons, Nathan and Samuel.

Max Hodal
Wyle Inc. supporting AFCAA
Max Hodal is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst and Certified Parametric Practitioner in the Washington D.C. area. He has worked at Wyle Inc. for six years supporting several federal government customers.
Mr. hodal has prepared estimates for software development intensive classified intelligence programs, IT modernization programs, financial systems and several others. He has contributed to various cost research efforts for his customers including the development of a labor rates database and researching and developing an economic analysis handbook. His specialties include software estimating, life cycle cost estimating, uncertainty/risk analysis and CER development. Currently he is supporting the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency’s IT division.
Mr. Hodal earned his M.B.A. from The University of Maryland in 2009 and his Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from the University of Virginia in 2003.

Brian Kolstad
MCR, LLC supporting AFCAA
Brian Kolstad is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst, who has supported several branches of the Department of Defense in the Washington D.C. area for over 6 years.
Mr. Kolstad has developed estimates for software intensive IT programs, radar systems, and several other systems and programs. He has contributed to various cost research efforts for his customers including the development of the Tri-Service Missiles and Munitions Cost Database and the Wheeled and Tracked Vehicles Cost Database. His specialties include uncertainty/risk analysis, software cost estimating, life cycle cost estimating, and cost database management. He is currently supporting the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency’s IT division.
Mr. Kolstad earned his M.S. in Operations Research with a concentration in Decision Analysis from George Mason University in 2009 and his Bachelor of Science in Economics and Mathematics from the University of Rochester in 2003.