Software Estimation Through The Use of EV Data
After Earned Value (EV) software development data is normalized, it follows a family of power curves. This paper will show how the inverse of this power curve can be used to produce a final cost estimate for in-progress software releases and how the inflection point of the inverse power curve was calculated. It will also address the steps behind deriving various curves, all of which produce the S-shape seen in the EV data (e.g. polynomial, gamma, and Rayleigh). Finally, this paper will explain why an inverse power curve was chosen to fit the data and how this method can be used as a cross check for the latest revised estimate (LRE) generally used in EV data.
Jeff Jaekle – graduated from William and Mary in May of 2006 with a B.A. in Economics and a minor in government. In June of 2006, Jeff joined Northrop Grumman as an operations researcher performing cost analysis for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).
Mr. Jaekle has performed research for the Air force (AFCAA) and worked on cost analysis for the Virginia Information Technology Agency (VITA). He also works on a team conducting Independent Cost Proposal Evaluations throughout Northrop Grumman.
Justin Greene – graduated from Virginia Tech in 2005 with a B.S. in Engineering Science and Mechanics and a minor in mathematics. Justin is currently attending graduate school at Old Dominion University for a Masters in Engineering Management. He joined Northrop Grumman as an operations researcher and support National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). He also works on a team conducting Independent Cost Proposal Evaluations throughout Northrop Grumman.
Eugene Cullen – graduated from the University of South Carolina with a degree in Marketing and Finance. In July of 2006, Eugene joined Northrop Grumman as an Operations Researcher performing cost analysis for the National Geospatial Intelligence- Agency (NGA). He also works on teams conducting research and Independent Cost Proposal Evaluations throughout Northrop Grumman.
Eric Druker – graduated from the College of William and Mary with a B.S. in Applied Mathematics in 2005 concentrating in both Operations Research and Probability & Statistics and a minor in Economics. Over the past two years he has been employed by Northrop Grumman as an Operations Research Analyst. He performs cost and risk analysis on several programs within both the Intelligence and DoD communities. Mr. Druker has also worked on high profile projects such as the Virginia Information Technology Agency and the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) proposals. He was a recipient of the 2005 NGIT President’s award for his work on several high profile Independent Cost Evaluations during which he helped to develop the risk process currently used by NGIT’s ICE teams. He has also performed decision tree analysis for NG Corporate law and built models for Hurricane Katrina Impact Studies and Schedule/Cost Growth determination.
Richard L. Coleman is a 1968 Naval Academy graduate, received an M. S. with Distinction from the U. S. Naval Postgraduate School and retired from active duty as a Captain, USN, in 1993. His service included tours as Commanding Officer of USS Dewey (DDG 45), and as Director, Naval Center for Cost Analysis. He has worked extensively in cost, CAIV, and risk for the Missile Defence Agency (MDA), Navy ARO, the intelligence community, NAVAIR, and the DD(X) Design Agent team. He has supported numerous ship programs including DD(X), the DDG 51 class, Deepwater, LHD 8 and LHA 6, the LPD 17 class, Virginia class submarines, CNN 77, and CVN 21. He was recently appointed as the Director of the Cost and Price Analysis Center of Excellence and conducts Independent Cost Evaluations on Northrop Grumman programs. He has more than 50 professional papers to his credit, including five ISPA/SCEA and SCEA Best Paper Awards and two ADoDCAS Outstanding Contributed Papers. He was a senior reviewer for all the SCEA CostPROF modules and lead author of the Risk Module. He served as Regional and National Vice President of SCEA.