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Applying parametric cost modelling to Technology Insertion

Software Track

Downloadable Files:

SW-6 Griffiths Shermon Paper Technology Insertion

SW-6A Griffiths Shermon Paper Technology Insertion


The paper will describe the UK MOD need to develop a Whole Life Cost modelling tool to enable the exploration and justification of up-front investment in different acquisition scenarios for characteristics that facilitate subsequent Technology Insertion.

This paper will describe a case study regarding how to apply parametric cost modelling to the attributes which are associated with Technology Insertion. The case study applies this modelling to an Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV), although it is equally applicable to all generic system types.

This application of the PRICE H, PRICE HL and True S parametric models result from a Technology Insertion Major Programme Area (TIMPA) study which has been funded by the Research Acquisition Organisation (RAO) of the United Kingdom (UK) Ministry of Defence (MoD).

The technique is transferable and equally applicable to all Integrated Project Teams (IPTs) wishing to investigate Technology Insertion (TI) options.

TIMPA website: http://www.timpa.co.uk/ RAO website: http://www.science.mod.uk/


Arthur Griffiths
Arthur is a member of the Institution of Electrical Engineers and has over 30 years experience in defence procurement and whole life costing. He is the Capability Leader, Cost Forecasting at HVR Consulting Services Ltd and specialises in conceptual costing studies, procurement cost estimation, life cycle cost assessment, Investment Appraisals, Public Sector Comparators and Public Finance Initiatives.
Arthur is an active contributor in the field of cost forecasting and this is demonstrated by his appointment in 2003 to the NATO Studies, Analysis and Simulation Study Team examining methods and models for life cycle costing.
Recent tasks include:
• Independent review of the budget for the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games;
• Independent assessment on the Top 20 UK defence procurement programmes:
• Management of investment studies to advise on Private Finance Initiative issues on major defence programmes.
• Retained as an Advisor to a number of investment banks for the conduct of Due Diligence on MoD PFI/PPP programmes.
In addition to being Chairman of the Society for Cost Analysis and Forecasting, Arthur is a member of the International Society for Parametric Analysts (ISPA) and the Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis (SCEA). He is a regular speaker at National and International events and author of a number of papers on Life Cycle Cost, Concept Costing and Asset Valuation.

Dale Shermon
Dale Shermon is a Senior Executive Consultant responsible for Training, Customer Support and Consultancy in Northern Europe. He reports to Grahame Jones (PRICE Systems Manager, Northern Europe). Dale has presented courses in hardware estimating, software estimating, life cycle cost, Cost Estimating Relationships, Information Technology, risk analysis and supplier assessment in the UK, Italy, USA, Australia, Taiwan and Germany. He has conducted consulting assignments in UK, Italy, Australia and the Netherlands. He was responsible for the development of the “PRICE HL Questionnaire” within the PRICE Estimating Suite.

Dale was previously working as a Cost Forecaster within Pricing and Forecasting Group (PFG) a support group of the Defence Procurement Agency (DPA) part of the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD). He headed a cell studying submarine platform Whole Life Cycle (WLC) Costs that supported DPA project approvals. He has been parametric cost estimating since 1987.

Dale has held estimating positions in various defence and aerospace companies including. Matra Marconi Space, British Aerospace (Space Systems) Ltd, British Aerospace (Dynamics) Ltd. and Rolls-Royce Ltd. Military Engine Group. During this career he has participated in numerous proposals and studies in engineering fields as varied as satellites, missiles and aero-engines. During his period in the MOD he performed High Level Studies covering all of the armed services.

Dale has presented papers to the European meeting of Space System Cost Analysis Group (SSCAG) in Toulouse, France; the PRICE Symposium in Nice, France, Cambridge and London UK also at the ISPA Conferences in San Diego, California; Frascati, Italy; Denver, Colorado; Seattle, Washington and Orlando, Florida. This final paper “If a little bit of Knowledge is dangerous… what is a lot of Knowledge?” presented with the UK MOD was awarded Best Applications Track Paper for the conference. At ISPA, Seattle the paper entitled “Creating True Concepts, a methodology, not a model” was awarded Best Hardware Track Paper 2006.

He has had articles published in the “Project” magazine of the Association for Project Management, “The Cost Engineer” the journal of the Association of Cost Engineers.

Dale was the first European to become an International Society of Parametric Analysts (ISPA) Certified Parametric Practitioner in 2003. He has been the tutor for the “Cost Estimating Relationships” session of the ISPA Professional Development Training at the 2004, 2005 and 2006 conferences

Dale has a Bachelor of Arts Degree from the Open University and is a member of The Association of Cost Engineers (ACostE) and The Association of Project Management (APM). Dale has a Certified Diploma in Accounting and Finance from the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA).