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Relational Correlation: What to do when Functional Correlation is Impossible

CEBok Reference Track

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The Missing Piece of Risk – Coleman


This paper provides a significant breakthrough in the application of correlation in risk and cost estimation. The paper will supply the missing piece not handled by the procedure called Functional Correlation, put forward by the authors in 1994, and will show the unseen errors generated by other methods of correlation injection. The paper will show how to use the geometry of regression to determine the correct values of correlation and other variables in risk. Powerful and reliable methods of approximating the values of needed parameters will be suggested, and finally, possible applications to other areas of cost estimation will be suggested.


Jessica R. Summerville
Ms. Summerville graduated with a B.A. in Mathematics from the University of Michigan in 1994. She received an M.S. in Operations Research from the College of William and Mary in 1995. During her Masters program, she worked as a Programmer/Analyst at SAIC in support of NASA’s Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Upon graduation, she joined TASC, Inc., where she works as a cost estimator and risk analyst in support of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), NAVAIR, the intelligence community, and the Cost Development Team for the Gold Team of the Navy’s 21st Century Destroyer Program (DD 21). Her cost estimating duties have involved lead analyst for National Missile Defense (NMD) radar systems and the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) missile system. In her capacity as Lead Analyst for Cost Risk for several organizations, she oversees the conduct of Schedule and Technical Risk Assessments and Cost Risk Analysis. In addition, she is a key member of multiple teams and working groups that perform research and modeling to advance the development of cost risk analysis.

Megan E. Dameron
Ms. Dameron graduated summa cum laude from the College of William and Mary in 1999 with a B.S. in Mathematics and Economics. Since her graduation, she has been working as a cost analyst at TASC, Inc. She performed cost and risk analysis for the Gold Team 21st Century Destroyer program (DD 21). In addition, she is part of a project team conducting cutting edge cost growth analysis for NAVAIR. She also provides cost and risk support to the intelligence community.

Cari L. Pullen
Ms. Pullen received a B.B.A, cum laude, in Operations Management with minors in Management Science and Computer Information Systems from James Madison University. Since graduation, she worked for McAdams Technologies Inc. where responsibilities included writing a Performance Work Statement for an A-76 study in Fort Carson, Colorado, and analysis for the Program Analysis and Evaluation office for the Department of The Army Surgeon General. More recently she has worked for TASC, Inc. where responsibilities included database development for the Naval Center for Cost Analysis, review and contribution to the cost deliverables in support of the Gold Team 21st Century Destroyer program (DD 21), and a cost growth analysis of Navy programs for NAVAIR.

Richard L. Coleman
Mr. Coleman was commissioned upon graduation from the United States Naval Academy on 5 June 1968, where he received a B.S. in Naval Engineering with a minor in Operations Analysis. He received a Master of Science Degree in Operations Research (With Distinction) from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California in September 1974. Graduating first in his class, he was the recipient of the Chief of Naval Operations Award for Excellence in Operations Research. In the Navy, his career culminated in tours as Commanding Officer of USS Dewey (DDG 45) and Director, Naval Center for Cost Analysis. His awards include the Legion of Merit, the Meritorious Service Medal with two Gold Stars, and the Navy Commendation Medal with one Gold Star. He retired from active duty as a Captain, U. S. Navy in 1993. Since retirement, he has worked for TASC, Inc. He conducts risk analysis at the Ballistic Missile Defense Office and NAVAIRSYSCOM. He supports the Navy’s Acquisition Reform Office in Cost as An Independent Variable (CAIV) & Total Ownership Cost. He leads the Gold Team in cost analysis of the Navy’s 21st Century Destroyer (DD 21). Additionally, he supports the intelligence community in cost, risk and CAIV. He is a Regional Vice President of the Society of Cost Estimation and Analysis. He was a co-author of two papers at the 1998 ISPA/SCEA International Conference, one on CAIV and Total Ownership Cost, awarded Best Paper in Acquisition Reform, and one on Cost Risk, winning Best Paper Overall, and a co-author of a paper that won Best Paper in CAIV at the 1999 ISPA/SCEA International Conference.

S. Gupta