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WCA Chapter Virtual Luncheon: Using Bayes’ Theorem to Develop CERs – Extending the Gaussian Model

February 27 @ 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm

SUBJECT: WCAC ICEAA February Luncheon: Using Bayes’ Theorem to Develop CERs – Extending the Gaussian Model

PRESENTED BY: Christian Smart and David Jo

TIME: Tuesday, February 27, 2024 | 12:00 to 1:00pm eastern


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Bayes’ Theorem is a mathematical method to combine prior experience with new data and is extremely important in leveraging limited information, which is often the case in cost estimating. This paper is an extension of a previous ICEAA paper that dealt with the application of Bayes’ Theorem to cost estimating. In this update we show how the Bayesian approach for linear models can be extended for different, more realistic assumptions. This briefing was originally presented at the ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop.


Christian Smart
David Jo

Speaker Bios:

  • Dr. Smart has a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics, with more than 20 years of experience with the application of predictive analytics, machine learning, and risk management to defense and aerospace programs. Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management is his first book. Dr. Smart is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst, the 2009 recipient of the ISPA Parametrician of the Year Award, the 2021 Frank Frieman Lifetime Achievement Award, and has presented at numerous ISPA, SCEA, and ICEAA conferences. He is currently employed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory as a Senior Programmatic Risk Analyst.
  • David Jo is a PCEA certified cost analyst with a Bachelor Degree in Risk Management from The Penn State University. He has worked as a Database Administrator (DBA) for Wheeled and Tracked Vehicles (WTV) and is currently supporting Tactical Tomahawks (TACTOM) program. Mr. Jo is working to become a proficient data scientist able to use multiple programming languages. Outside of work, Mr. Jo enjoys watching football and playing golf.


More information can be found at the WCAC ICEAA website: