When History Rhymes: Cost Estimating Lessons from Seven Legacy Aircraft

ICEAA is excited to expand our selection of QED Webinars for our members to continue to enjoy ICEAA membership with the purchase of the Professional Development Package. Join ICEAA and the Southern California Chapter Thursday, June 18, 2026 for a one-time free broadcast of When History Rhymes: Cost Estimating Lessons from Seven Legacy Aircraft, the winner of the 2026 Best Paper in the Modeling & Trending Topics Category and 2026 Best Paper Overall, by Brent Johnstone:

Every historical aircraft program carries a narrative that can inform present day cost estimating. By “reading” the manufacturing learning curves of seven legacy aircraft (F-102, F-106, B-58, F-111, L-188, P-3, and L-1011) we uncover recurring themes confirming the adage that history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. This study identifies quantitative and qualitative lessons from these legacy programs, revealing how design changes, delivery rate fluctuations, production gaps, end of program tail-up, and the knowledge transfer across multiple variants shaped cost curves. The analysis confirms that even decades-old programs can provide actionable insights for today’s estimators, offering a framework to anticipate cost drivers, calibrate learning curve models, and improve forecasting accuracy for current and future aircraft estimates.

Unlike ICEAA’s usual webinars, this presentation will not be made available on our YouTube channel, but will be an option for new and renewing members to choose as part of the Professional Development Package, or can purchase access to the recording for $100 (discounted rate for members, $25).

RSVP for the exclusive free webinar showing at https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/axHOvjjlSNi6GrlajSLICQ