WCA Chapter Virtual Luncheon: Annie Oakleying the Risk Cube – Management Goes Better with Analysis

Please join us for this month’s Washington Capital Area Chapter (WCAC) International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA) Luncheon:

SUBJECT: WCAC ICEAA October Luncheon: Annie Oakleying the Risk Cube – Management Goes Better with Analysis
PRESENTED BY: Sean Wells (the new WCAC ICEAA President) and Peter Braxton, Technomics
TIME: October 20, 2025 | 12:00 to 1:00pm Eastern

SUMMARY:
Despite advances in both Risk Management and Risk Analysis over the past two decades, there remains a persistent divide between the two disciplines. Risk Management, with its predisposition to discrete risks (“what could go wrong?”) and central construct of the Risk Cube, tends to have a myopic focus on Issues and struggles to accurately assess and portray Likelihood and Consequence. Risk Analysis, with its predisposition to continuous risks (“what is the range of possible outcomes?”) and central construct of the S-Curve, brings the mathematical tools needed for fidelity in risk calculations but struggles to put a recognizable face on these necessary abstractions. This paper seeks to unify these two fields by drawing the best from each. It identifies fundamental deficiencies in the Risk Cube, such as lack of basis, distortion of linear scales, misleading color codes, and junk math, and remedies them with principles from Risk Analysis to better inform decision-makers.

This briefing was originally presented at the 2025 ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop.

Speakers:

Peter Braxton – Mr. Peter Braxton is a Subject Matter Expert and Employee Owner at Technomics, Inc. He has over 25 years of experience performing cost and risk analysis and delivering associated training for a broad spectrum of federal clients. The inaugural VP for Professional Development and a multiple ICEAA Educator of the Year winner, he has shown a long-standing commitment to knowledge sharing within the community.

Sean Wells – Mr. Sean Wells has been with Technomics since July 2023 and currently provides cost support to the Marine Corp’s Program Assessment and Evaluation Office. Sean has an MS in Contracts Acquisition and Management and 5+ years of professional experience working naval estimates and performing risk analyses. He is an ICEAA Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (CCEA) and the Washington Capital Area Chapter ICEAA President.

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