Washington Capital Area Chapter Virtual Luncheon: Tripped and Wired…
Please join us for this month’s Washington Capital Area Chapter (WCAC) International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA) Luncheon:
SUBJECT: WCAC ICEAA September 2026 Luncheon
TOPIC: Tripped and Wired: A Recipe for Comprehensive Risk Assessment (2026 ICEAA Workshop Best Paper Winner, Processes and EVM)
PRESENTED BY: Peter Braxton and Sean Wells, Technomics
TIME: July 29, 2026 | 12:00 to 1:00pm Eastern
SUMMARY:
The “Iron Triangle” relates cost, schedule, and performance to help managers identify the source of and mitigations for program risks. However, the rust begins to form when event-focused risk management (RM) tangles with uncertainty-focused risk analysis (RA). Fundamentally, these divergent paradigms inhibit communication between RM and RA practitioners, leaving program managers with one hand tied behind their back. This paper addresses these crossed wires by introducing a novel approach that leverages earned-value-style “tripwires” and a bit of calculus to translate between the discrete and the continuous. For RA, this bridges the gap to ensure models capture RM inputs and enables effective application of Management Reserve. For RM, this allows monitoring and mitigation of continuous factors that would otherwise confound the risk register. In an environment hyper-focused on early detection and cost management, this approach gives cost estimators the relevant tools to drive effective decision making and program success.
SPEAKERS:
Peter Braxton is a Subject Matter Expert and Employee Owner at Technomics, Inc. He has over 25 years of experience performing cost and risk analysis and delivering associated training for a broad spectrum of federal government clients. The inaugural VP for Professional Development and a multiple ICEAA Educator of the Year winner, he has shown a long-standing commitment to knowledge sharing within the community. He holds an AB in Mathematics from Princeton and an MS in Operations Research from the College of William and Mary. He is a semi-retired game show contestant and avid cruciverbalist.
Sean Wells has been with Technomics, Inc., since July 2023 and currently provides cost support to the Marine Corps Program Assessment and Evaluation (PA&E) Office. Sean has an MS in Contracts Acquisition and Management and more than five years of professional experience working naval estimates and performing risk analyses. He is an ICEAA Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (CCEA) and was recently elected President of the Washington Capital Area Chapter (WCAC).
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