2012-PAR08

Tactical Missile Bluebook and Cost Model Overview

Parametrics Track

PAR08_Presentation_TacticalMissileBluebookandCostModelOverview_Covert

Abstract:

MCR recently developed the Tactical Missile Bluebook together with a cost model based on the information contained in it. The Bluebook contains cost estimating relationships (CERs) for tactical missile development and production based on 13 programs and 153 recurring production lots. In this presentation, we show how the Bluebook is organized and how the CERs and factors were developed, including the filtering methods used to determine data points to be included and excluded from CER development, the challenges of building a useful estimating method from this compilation of data, the methods used to develop the estimating relationships, the results obtained, and significant general findings. Details of the ZMPE regression method used to derive learning curves and CERs will be explained, as well as the unit-as-an-independent-variable (UAIV) method for costing multiple-unit procurements by regressing all missile lots in a single regression. The cost model incorporates both CERs and factors and automates estimation of the air vehicle as a whole, as well as the subsystems of the air vehicle, total cost and total price. For each user-selected cost level, the model provides error statistics and probability distribution curves.

Author(s):

Raymond P. Covert
MCR, LLC
Raymond P. Covert, Technical Director and Chief Practitioner for Cost and Schedule Analysis at MCR, is responsible for ensuring technical excellence of MCR products, services, and processes by encouraging process improvement, maintaining quality control, and training employees and government and industrial customers in cost and schedule analysis and associated program-control disciplines. He has given numerous technical and tutorial presentations on cost-risk analysis, cost-estimating relationship development, and other statistical aspects of cost and economics to DoD, NASA, and EACE (European Aerospace Working Group on Cost Engineering) Cost Symposia, the AF/NASA/ESA Space Systems Cost Analysis Group (SSCAG), and professional societies such as the International Society of Parametric Analysts (ISPA), Society for Cost Estimating and Analysis (SCEA), Military Operations Research Society (MORS), U.K. Association of Cost Engineers (ACostE), and the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).

Donald L. Trapp
MCR Federal, LLC
Mr. Trapp is a Technical Manager at MCR, LLC. He has been involved with cost and system analysis for defense and space systems for the past forty years. During that time he has also been employed at The RAND Corporation, SAIC, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, where he was responsible for cost analysis of all missile systems and all strategic defensive systems. He has specific experience in cost analysis, economic analysis, systems analysis, parametric analysis, and risk analysis. He received his BS in Engineering Science from Harvey Mudd College and his Masters in Nuclear Engineering from M.I.T.

Noah L. Wright
MCR Federal, LLC
Mr. Wright is a junior Cost and Project Control Analyst at MCR, LLC. He has been involved with developing Cost Estimating Relationships and factors for missile programs. Prior to working with MCR he served for five years in the Marine Corps with two air control squadrons as an air control electronics operator. His specific experience covers both cost and schedule with regards to analysis and estimating, along with cost modeling using advanced statistical methods, and schedule development and maintenance. He received his BS in Business Administration degree in 2009 from the University of Central Florida and is currently a 2013 MBA Candidate at Rollins College.

Andrew Drennon
MCR, LLC
Mr. Drennon is a Manager with MCR, LLC. He has supported DoD systems acquisitions with cost analysis and program management for the past eight years, supporting multiple DOD systems. Prior to joining MCR, Mr. Drennon served as a logistics officer in the United States Army, and supported supply chain improvement projects for several commercial entities. He has a BA in Economics from the University of Virginia, and an MBA in Supply Chain Management from Arizona State University.