2012-PAR07

Tactical Missile Bluebook Cost Model Development

Parametrics Track

PAR07_Presentation_TacticalMissileBluebookCostModelDevelopment_Trapp

Abstract:

As part of a quality review process, MCR constructed a cost model based on the cost estimating relationships (CERs) and cost factors contained in the Tactical Missile Bluebook. This effort proved to be valuable in refining the existing CERs and factors and in improving the Bluebook. While building the model, the CER developers found instances where CER input definitions in the documentation needed to be more specific to better serve CER users. When comparing candidate CERs to each other in the regression development process, CER developers relied on error statistics and goodness-of-fit metrics, but these metrics provided an incomplete comparison. Using the model’s capability of displaying the probability distributions of multiple CERs simultaneously, they could literally see the resulting probability distributions of candidate CERs and how these distributions compared to each other. Finally the CER developers could compare end-to-end error results of the cost build-up, from subsystem CERs through the modeling of total price.

There were many benefits to this exercise: first, to have CER developers build a model from the user’s perspective (and moreover to have CER users be CER developers); second, to use a model to assist in providing a quality review of the deliverable documentation; and, third, to provide modelers and users with a better understanding of total error characteristics of the cost model being built. Furthermore, the cost model as developed provides an end product in itself that automates estimation of costs and provides both error statistics and probability distribution curves.

Author(s):

Donald L. Trapp
MCR Federal, LLC
Mr. Trapp is a Technical Manager at MCR, LLC. He has been involved with cost and system analysis for defense and space systems for the past forty years. During that time he has also been employed at The RAND Corporation, SAIC, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, where he was responsible for cost analysis of all missile systems and all strategic defensive systems. He has specific experience in cost analysis, economic analysis, systems analysis, parametric analysis, and risk analysis. He received his BS in Engineering Science from Harvey Mudd College and his Masters in Nuclear Engineering from M.I.T.

Noah L. Wright
MCR Federal, LLC
Mr. Wright is a junior Cost and Project Control Analyst at MCR, LLC. He has been involved with developing Cost Estimating Relationships and factors for missile programs. Prior to working with MCR he served for five years in the Marine Corps with two air control squadrons as an air control electronics operator. His specific experience covers both cost and schedule with regards to analysis and estimating, along with cost modeling using advanced statistical methods, and schedule development and maintenance. He received his BS in Business Administration degree in 2009 from the University of Central Florida and is currently a 2013 MBA Candidate at Rollins College.

Lisa G. Hackbarth
MCR Federal, LLC
Ms. Hackbarth is a junior Cost Analyst at MCR, LLC. She has been involved with cost estimating for the Joint Urban Test Capability as well as developing Cost Estimating Relationships and factors for missile programs for two years. Prior to working with MCR she was a Graduate Teaching Assistant for University of Central Florida’s (UCF) Department of Economics and a Multifunctional Financial Analyst at Lockheed Martin. Her specific experience covers cost estimating, defining program/project Work Breakdown Structures, and working manpower requirements. She received her BSBA in Economics and an MBA from UCF in 2008 and 2009 respectively.