2012-EVM13

Joint Analysis of Cost and Schedule (JACS) – A New Tool for JCL Analysis

Earned Value Management Track

EVM13_Presentation_JointAnalysisofCostandSchedule-JACS_Rippe

Abstract:

NASA has recently implemented a policy that requires a program/project to be approved at a 70% Joint Budget and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL) which are to be generated from models that integrate cost and schedule. To comply with the policy, a tool framework is needed that can conduct a risk and uncertainty analysis on schedule logic as well as integrate cost uncertainty analysis to account for phasing and costs that are dependent on overall duration. NASA is currently using several platforms, but has seen some issues in extensibility, cost integration, and overall performance. With the implementation of the policy, NASA JCL quality standards provided opportunity to research into the performance concerns of current tools and also to identify enhancements to evolve JCL analysis into an effective management tool.

This presentation will highlight a JCL tool leveraging available technology to satisfy NASA requirements. This presentation provides an overview of the core functionality developed to fulfill the integrated cost/schedule framework:

– Use schedule structure and data defined in a MS-Project file
– Allow modeling of time dependent and time independent costs
– Enable specification of probability distributions on schedule durations and costs, as well as modeling of probabilistic tasks (likelihood of occurrence)
– Conduct automated simulation processing to provide integrated cost/schedule results
– Generate risk result reports (scatter plot, PDFs, CDFs, and Tornado reports)

Author(s):

Antonio Rippe
Tecolote Research, Inc.
Mr. Rippe graduated from the Inter American University of Puerto Rico with a B.S. in Applied Mathematics. He is employed by Tecolote Research, Inc as an Advanced Analyst for Tecolote’s NASA Project Support Consulting group. Since 2005, Mr. Rippe has actively been teaching cost estimating, statistical analysis, and risk modeling for a wide variety of customers (USCG, Navy, USAF, and NASA). Since 2008, he has been actively involved with NASA in supporting cost risk analysis and integrated cost/schedule risk analysis to support NASA’s Joint Cost Level (JCL) policy. He has won awards from NASA, ranging from Cost Team of the Year to various Awards of Excellence.

Rey Carpio
Tecolote Research, Inc.
Mr. Carpio has several years of experience in systems acquisition for Department of Defense programs and National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) programs, with particular emphasis on cost analyses, cost estimating, and financial management. His background includes experience in independent cost estimating and analyses, joint confidence level analysis, procurement, and leadership. Presently with Tecolote Research Inc. as Houston Office Manager, providing support to NASA programs/projects and also provides technical support to ACEIT sales and training. Prior to Tecolote, Rey was a NASA member of Senior Executive Service (SES), evaluated agency mission-related programs and projects to ensure cost effectiveness, quality, performance, and strategic alignment; provided independent cost estimates in support of these evaluations. And prior to NASA, Rey spent 20 years in the Air Force with several assignments across the globe.