2013-M209

Sensitivity Analysis in Cost-Benefits Analysis

Methods and Models II Track

M2-9_Presentation_SensitivityAnlaysisInCBAs_Ikeler

Abstract:

The Army has been using Cost-Benefits Analysis (C-BA) for all new requirements with cost impact for two years. As with the Analysis of Alternatives (AoA), a sensitivity analysis of the C-BA results is required. The C-BAs frequently use weighted decision matrices to combine the benefits into a single Cost-Benefit Index. This greatly simplifies the sensitivity analysis and facilitates allocation of cost to the individual benefits. The author reviewed the sensitivity analysis in 80 C-BAs. This session will address some of the techniques for presenting sensitivity analysis, the basic math behind the sensitivity analysis and allocating cost to benefits and generalizing the results to more complicated problems.

Author:

Steven Ikeler
Army Capabilities Integration Center
Mr. Ikeler is an Operations Research Analyst for Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC) assigned to the Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning, Georgia. He specializes in Cost-Benefits Analysis for Soldier and Mounted Requirements Divisions. Prior to his arrival at ARCIC, Mr. Ikeler was an Operations Research Analyst for the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Cost and Economics (ODASA-CE) where he specialized in Cost Analysis. Mr. Ikeler graduated with a Master of Science Degree in Industrial Engineering (Operations Research) from Purdue University in West Lafayette IN. As of June 13, 2013 he is an International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA) Certified Cost Estimator/ Analyst.