Ground Radar Expenditure Phasing Analysis

Methods and Models II Track



Realistic budget submissions are critical to a program’s success. Budget realism relies on a full understanding of the system’s requirements so that a comprehensive cost and schedule estimate can be developed that can inform a realistic budget position. In addition to developing a realistic estimate, the budget position must also reflect a realistic phasing of budget dollars across an appropriate schedule; so that sufficient budget dollars are available at the correct time in a program’s acquisition lifecycle to assist the program achieve success. Most existing expenditure phasing models are Rayleigh or Weibull-based distributions and were developed on a variety of DoD space and ground programs and are not commodity specific to terrestrial radar systems. This analysis examines the process used to determine a terrestrial-radar-specific Weibull expenditure and obligation phasing methodology and the added advantages of a commodity-specific expenditure and obligation phasing model vice a model developed for satellite and ground programs. This analysis will also address the comparison of results based on our analysis to the results from existing phasing tools.


Rick Garcia
Rick Garcia works for MCR Federal, LLC in El Segundo, CA. For over 17 years he has held a variety of Program Control support roles for various Program Offices at the Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California. Through his career he has performed cost and schedule analysis, to include data collection, normalization and regression for nearly every SMC program. He has also directly supported the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA) for over 5 years. He is currently the MCR El Segundo Technical Director. Rick Garcia received his undergraduate degree in Mathematics form the University of Pennsylvania and earned a Masters of Business Administration degree in Information System Strategy and Corporate Finance from the University of Southern California. Rick is a former ISPA Certified Parametric Practitioner (CPP) and is now an ICEAA member.