2013-M203

Estimating Alternatives for Joint Future Theater Lift (JFTL)

Methods and Models II Track

M2-3_Presentation_EstimatingAlternativeForJFTL_Georgi

Abstract:

US military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq are making military transport aircraft work at rates not foreseen just a decade ago. At the same time the existing inventory of transport aircraft are limited in their ability to transport heavy cargo to austere unimproved landing zones where military forces routinely operate. The US Air Force (USAF) with considerable support from the US Army conducted the Joint Future Theater Lift (JFTL) Technology Study (JTS) to consider how best to equip its theater lift fleets beyond 2020 to address this need. The JTS was established by merging the US Army’s Joint Heavy Lift (JHL) and the USAF’s Advanced Joint Air Combat Systems (AJACS). The JTS analyzes the cost, risks, and operational effectiveness of theater lift technology alternatives that address capability shortfalls identified in the JFTL Initial Capabilities Document (ICD); an essential capability shortfall being the delivery of a combat-configured medium weight armored vehicle (up to 36 tons) into austere, short, unimproved landing areas without ground handling equipment. One of the alternatives included a hybrid airship design. Unlike a lighter than air (LTA) airship, a hybrid airship generates its lift both aerodynamically and from buoyancy.
This presentation examines the approach developed by Booz Allen Hamilton personnel who staffed the JTS Cost Analysis Working Group (CAWG). It includes an overview of the Aircraft Conceptual Design Cost (ACDC) model built as a means of providing “budget quality” Life Cycle Cost Estimates (LCCE) for the JTS alternatives and the challenges faced in completing these estimates. The challenge of estimating new technology was faced by the CAWG when estimating the cost of a heavier than air (HTA) hybrid airship. The USAF has never designed a hybrid airship; therefore, no actual cost data to develop a cost estimating relationship (CER) exists. The work the CAWG did validating RAND CERs used in the ACDC model is also discussed. The final topic discussed will be developing a non-budgetary estimate for strictly operational cost comparison between combinations of baseline air and ground assets and JFTL alternatives including the Hybrid Airship.

Author:

Robert Georgi
Booz Allen Hamilton
Robert Georgi is a Lead Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton and has over 19 years of experience with the U.S. government sector and private industry, primarily managing and conducting cost estimates and analysis for the acquisition process for the Department of Defense (Air Force, Army, Defense Advanced Research Project Agency) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). At Booz Allen Robert is currently tasked with supporting the US Air Force Material Command (AFMC) market team in the area of cost/risk analysis capabilities, including developing intellectual capital.
He has received three NASA Group Achievement awards as a participant on project teams and also received numerous recognition awards from the firm. He was previously the lead for the Booz Allen cost estimators contracted in support of the International Space Station Program from 2004 to 2007 before assignments with NASA’s Lunar Surface System, Project Orion (Crew Exploration Vehicle), Constellation Program operations cost reduction initiatives, and the Constellation Mission Operations Project Training Facility. Robert also authored sections of the first NASA Cost Estimating Handbook. Robert began his career as a project analyst in the banking industry working for Key Bank and J.P. Morgan Chase Bank.
Robert is a graduate of Case Western Reserve University with a BA in Economics and the University of Wisconsin – Madison with an MA in Literature. He is a certified Project Management Professional (PMP). He has presented at NASA Cost Symposia, SCEA conferences, the Galorath Users Conference, and Space System Cost Analysis Group (SSCAG) conferences.